Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy

Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy PDF Author: Ruma Falk
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781540657701
Category : Chance
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging.

Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy

Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy PDF Author: Ruma Falk
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781540657701
Category : Chance
Languages : en
Pages : 0

Get Book Here

Book Description
The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging.

Rationality and Social Responsibility

Rationality and Social Responsibility PDF Author: Joachim I. Krueger
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1135703876
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 400

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Book Description
The breadth of topics reflects Dawes's wide-ranging impact on psychological theory and empirical practice. The two themes of rationality and social responsibility feature heavily. The book serves as an overview of psychological science development in its struggle to reconcile what is true with what is good.

Gambler's Fallacy

Gambler's Fallacy PDF Author: Judith Elaine Cowan
Publisher: The Porcupine's Quill
ISBN: 9780889842250
Category : Fiction
Languages : en
Pages : 202

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Book Description
'The conundrum at the core of Gambler's Fallacy, author and translator Judith Cowan's seven-story follow-up to her distinguished 1997 debut, More Than Life Itself, involves an impressively erratic cast of fearful and fragile Québécois characters, capriciously transformed into victims of the strange vagaries of chance and serendipitous circumstance. Not unlike Raymond Carver or Alice Munro, Cowan creates heartbreakingly felicitous portraits of Chekhovian elegance, featuring the ordinarily forgotten little folks who, for no apparent reason or logical explanation, have fallen through the cracks. ... Suffused with a largeness of spirit everywhere animated by moments of aching clarity and lyrical grace, Cowan's gritty minimalist vignettes will, if truth be told, simply break the most hardened of readers' hearts. You can bet the farm on it.'

Statistics Hacks

Statistics Hacks PDF Author: Bruce Frey
Publisher: "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN: 0596553994
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 360

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Book Description
Want to calculate the probability that an event will happen? Be able to spot fake data? Prove beyond doubt whether one thing causes another? Or learn to be a better gambler? You can do that and much more with 75 practical and fun hacks packed into Statistics Hacks. These cool tips, tricks, and mind-boggling solutions from the world of statistics, measurement, and research methods will not only amaze and entertain you, but will give you an advantage in several real-world situations-including business. This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there. Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to: Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lottery Design your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friends Predict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracy Demystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honest Spot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codes How to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1

The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 PDF Author: Shane Parrish
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 0593719972
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209

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Book Description
Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.

Social Psychology

Social Psychology PDF Author: Daniel W. Barrett
Publisher: SAGE Publications
ISBN: 1506310591
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 697

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Book Description
Employing a lively and accessible writing style, author Daniel W. Barrett integrates up-to-date coverage of social psychology’s core theories, concepts, and research with a discussion of emerging developments in the field—including social neuroscience and the social psychology of happiness, religion, and sustainability. Social Psychology: Core Concepts and Emerging Trends presents engaging examples, Applying Social Psychology sections, and a wealth of pedagogical features to help readers cultivate a deep understanding of the causes of social behavior.

An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic

An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic PDF Author: Ian Hacking
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521775014
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 326

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Book Description
An introductory 2001 textbook on probability and induction written by a foremost philosopher of science.

What's Luck Got to Do with It?

What's Luck Got to Do with It? PDF Author: Joseph Mazur
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400834457
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 297

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Book Description
The hazards of feeling lucky in gambling Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling—including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers—and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them PDF Author: Gary Belsky
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 1439169748
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 343

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Book Description
Protect and grow your finances with help from this definitive and practical guide to behavioral economics—revised and updated to reflect new economic realities. In their fascinating investigation of the ways we handle money, Gary Belsky and Thomas Gilovich reveal the psychological forces—the patterns of thinking and decision making—behind seemingly irrational behavior. They explain why so many otherwise savvy people make foolish financial choices: why investors are too quick to sell winning stocks and too slow to sell losing shares, why home sellers leave money on the table and home buyers don’t get the biggest bang for their buck, why borrowers pay too much credit card interest and savers can’t sock away as much as they’d like, and why so many of us can’t control our spending. Focusing on the decisions we make every day, Belsky and Gilovich provide invaluable guidance for avoiding the financial faux pas that can cost thousands of dollars each year. Filled with fresh insight; practical advice; and lively, illustrative anecdotes, this book gives you the tools you need to harness the powerful science of behavioral economics in any financial environment.

The Demon-Haunted World

The Demon-Haunted World PDF Author: Carl Sagan
Publisher: Ballantine Books
ISBN: 0307801047
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 474

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Book Description
A prescient warning of a future we now inhabit, where fake news stories and Internet conspiracy theories play to a disaffected American populace “A glorious book . . . A spirited defense of science . . . From the first page to the last, this book is a manifesto for clear thought.”—Los Angeles Times How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions. Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms. Praise for The Demon-Haunted World “Powerful . . . A stirring defense of informed rationality. . . Rich in surprising information and beautiful writing.”—The Washington Post Book World “Compelling.”—USA Today “A clear vision of what good science means and why it makes a difference. . . . A testimonial to the power of science and a warning of the dangers of unrestrained credulity.”—The Sciences “Passionate.”—San Francisco Examiner-Chronicle