Author: Surjit Bhalla
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
We examine the impact of formal adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on inflation, growth and anchoring of inflation expectations in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Our paper reports several findings relevant to assessing the success of IT regimes. We find that while the early adopters of IT (pre-2000) all saw declines in inflation rates following adoption, IT adopters since then have enjoyed such success in only about half the cases. Since there is not much difference, on average, between IT and non-IT countries in mean inflation, inflation volatility and the extent of inflation anchoring, it is not easy to sort out what role IT has played in ensuring good outcomes; in particular, we cannot rule out the possibility that the success of IT may be due to ‘regression to the mean’. Our country-level analysis—using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to compare outcomes in IT countries to a synthetic cohort—shows that IT adoption delivers significant inflation gains in about a third of the cases. At the same time, we also find limited support for the concern that adoption of IT systematically leads to poorer growth outcomes. At a time when central banks are struggling to keep inflation in check, our results suggest that the belief that IT adoption will be sufficient to achieve this goal cannot be taken for granted.
Author: Mr.Christian Ebeke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513586262
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
This paper investigates the effects of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging markets (EMs), conditional on certain macroeconomic conditions. Using a large sample of EMs and after controlling for the selection bias associated with the adoption of IT, we find that IT countries on average have a relatively more flexible exchange rate regime than other EMs. However, the flexibility of the exchange rate regime shows strong heterogeneity among IT countries depending on their degree of openness and exposure to FX risks. Moreover, we find that the marginal effect of IT adoption on the exchange rate flexibility increases with the duration of the IT regime in place, and with the propensity scores to adopt it.
Author: Laurence M. Ball
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare seven OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to thirteen that did not. After the early 90s, performance improved along many dimensions for both the targeting countries and the non-targeters. In some cases the targeters improved by more; for example, average inflation fell by a larger amount. However, these differences are explained by the facts that targeters performed worse than non-targeters before the early 90s, and there is regression to the mean. Once one controls for regression to the mean, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.
Author: Hippolyte W. Balima
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484320751
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Inflation targeting (IT) has gained much traction over the past two decades, becoming a framework of reference for the conduct of monetary policy. However, the debate about its very merits and macroeconomic consequences remains inconclusive. This paper digs deeper into the issue through a meta-regression analysis (MRA) of the existing literature, making it the first application of a MRA to the macroeconomic effects of IT adoption. Building on 8,059 estimated coefficients from a very broad sample of 113 studies, the paper finds that the empirical literature suffers from two types of publication bias. First, authors, editors and reviewers prefer results featuring beneficial effects of IT adoption on inflation volatility, real GDP growth and fiscal performances; second, they promote results with estimated coefficients that are significantly different from zero. However, after filtering out the publication biases, we still find meaningful (genuine) effects of IT in reducing inflation and real GDP growth volatility, but no significant genuine effects on inflation volatility and the level of real GDP growth. Interestingly, the results indicate that the impact of IT varies systematically across studies, depending on the sample structure and composition, the time coverage, the estimation techniques, country-specific factors, IT implementation parameters, and publication characteristics.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498343694
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498332927
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Inflation targeting is becoming the monetary policy framework of choice in a growing number of emerging market and developing countries. This paper examines the experience of non-industrial inflation targeting countries to review the implications for the Fund’s approach to surveillance, technical assistance, and the design of conditionality in Fund-supported programs. For this examination, the paper uses macroeconomic data, technical assistance reports, and a new survey of central banks in selected emerging markets.
Author: Mr.Scott Roger
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451873832
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper provides an overview of inflation targeting frameworks and macroeconomic performance under inflation targeting. Inflation targeting frameworks are generally quite similar across countries, and a broad consensus has developed in favor of "flexible" inflation targeting. The evidence shows that, although inflation target ranges are missed frequently in most countries, the inflation and growth performance under inflation targeting compares very favorably with performance under alternative frameworks. Inflation targeters also tentatively appear to be coping better with the commodity price and financial shocks in 2007-2009 than non-inflation targeters. Key issues going forward include adapting inflation targeting to emerging market and developing countries, and incorporating financial stability issues into the framework.
Author: Charles Freedman
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145187233X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.
Author: Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200727
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
This is the fifth chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." It examines whether certain conditions have to be met before emerging economies can adopt an inflation-targeting regime and provides some empirical evidence on the matter. The issues analyzed are the priority of inflation targeting over other goals, the absence of fiscal dominance, central bank independence, the degree of control over the policy interest rate, a sound methodology for forecasting, and the soundness of financial institutions and markets, and resilience to changes in exchange rates and interest rates.
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Anti-inflationary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
Experience with monetary targeting suggests that although it successfully controlled inflation in Switzerland and especially Germany, the special conditions that made it work reasonably well in those two countries are unlikely to be satisfied elsewhere. Inflation targeting is more likely to improve economic performance in countries that choose to have an independent domestic monetary policy, but there are subtleties in how inflation targeting is done. Lessons from industrial countries should be useful to central banks designing a framework for monetary policy.
