Author: Artur Sepp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
Academics and practitioners have developed many models for volatility measurement and forecast - I estimate that the total number of available models to be about 200-300 if we count all modifications of intraday estimators, GARCH-type and continuous-time models.In practice, the estimate and forecast of the volatility serves provide vital inputs to many applications ranging from signal construction to algorithmic strategies and quantitative methods for portfolio allocation. By applying machine learning to the volatility modeling, we can reduce the back-test bias and, as a result, improve the performance of live strategies.First, I implemented about 40 different volatility models from 4 separate model classes including intraday estimators, GARCH-type and Bayesian models, and Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) models.Then, I applied the supervised learning for each of the volatility models with the goal is to analyze the out-of-sample fit of the model prediction to the time series data. I propose a few regression-based tests which are applied to gauge the performance of all volatility models.The final step is the reinforcement learning that includes aggregation and analysis of the test results from the supervised learning. The goal is to dynamically select the best model out of 40 that provides the best predicative power out-of-sample. I use the analogy to the web-search to weight the importance of the test results when producing volatility forecasts for specific trading algorithms. One of key discoveries is that Hidden Markov Chain model is one of the best model for volatility forecast across many asset classes. I also observe the cyclical pattern in the rankings of the best models. On one hand, Hidden Chain models perform the best in periods with strong trends. On the other hand, simple intraday estimators perform the best in periods with range-bound markets. The machine learning enables to dynamically choose the best model for the present cycle.
Author: Sergio Andrés González Orjuela
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Volatility trading has become a prominent alternative to the traditional stock trading as the rapid development of web-trading in recent years has reduced significantly the costs of operating in the market. Moreover, machine learning techniques have enabled traders to rely heavily on statistical decision-making models to enhance the commonly used technical analysis. In this paper, a machine learning approach is used to predict proxies of short-term implied volatility clusters with high-frequency data, in order to perform trading strategies using vanilla options on a commercial platform. The empirical results indicate that tree-based methods outperform linear models in classifying these clusters using the time of the day as a key variable in the forecasting task. Financial results were mixed due to the high costs of operating in a 5-hour horizon, but it was found that long positions on at the money straddle strategies expiring in one day were profitable. The framework developed here can be used by small investors as a guidance to implement and assess theoretical strategies in accessible markets.
Author: Artur Sepp
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
We present some empirical evidence for short volatility strategies and for the cyclical pattern of their P&L. The cyclical pattern of the short volatility strategies produces an alpha in good times but collapses to the beta in bad times. We introduce a factor model with risk-aversion to explain the risk-premium of short volatility strategies as a compensation to bear losses in bad market regimes. We then consider an econometric model for statistical inference of market regimes and for optimal position sizing. Finally, we illustrate model applications for generating alpha from volatility strategies.
Author: Wenchao Liao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Presentation slides (PDF) for the above named paper.
Author: Yves Hilpisch
Publisher: O'Reilly Media
ISBN: 1492053325
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
Algorithmic trading, once the exclusive domain of institutional players, is now open to small organizations and individual traders using online platforms. The tool of choice for many traders today is Python and its ecosystem of powerful packages. In this practical book, author Yves Hilpisch shows students, academics, and practitioners how to use Python in the fascinating field of algorithmic trading. You'll learn several ways to apply Python to different aspects of algorithmic trading, such as backtesting trading strategies and interacting with online trading platforms. Some of the biggest buy- and sell-side institutions make heavy use of Python. By exploring options for systematically building and deploying automated algorithmic trading strategies, this book will help you level the playing field. Set up a proper Python environment for algorithmic trading Learn how to retrieve financial data from public and proprietary data sources Explore vectorization for financial analytics with NumPy and pandas Master vectorized backtesting of different algorithmic trading strategies Generate market predictions by using machine learning and deep learning Tackle real-time processing of streaming data with socket programming tools Implement automated algorithmic trading strategies with the OANDA and FXCM trading platforms
Author: Chris Kelliher
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000582302
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 698
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Book Description
Quantitative Finance with Python: A Practical Guide to Investment Management, Trading and Financial Engineering bridges the gap between the theory of mathematical finance and the practical applications of these concepts for derivative pricing and portfolio management. The book provides students with a very hands-on, rigorous introduction to foundational topics in quant finance, such as options pricing, portfolio optimization and machine learning. Simultaneously, the reader benefits from a strong emphasis on the practical applications of these concepts for institutional investors. Features Useful as both a teaching resource and as a practical tool for professional investors. Ideal textbook for first year graduate students in quantitative finance programs, such as those in master’s programs in Mathematical Finance, Quant Finance or Financial Engineering. Includes a perspective on the future of quant finance techniques, and in particular covers some introductory concepts of Machine Learning. Free-to-access repository with Python codes available at www.routledge.com/ 9781032014432 and on https://github.com/lingyixu/Quant-Finance-With-Python-Code.
Author: Dan Passarelli
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118133161
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 375
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Book Description
A top options trader details a practical approach for pricing and trading options in any market condition The options market is always changing, and in order to keep up with it you need the greeks—delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho—which are the best techniques for valuing options and executing trades regardless of market conditions. In the Second Edition of Trading Options Greeks, veteran options trader Dan Pasarelli puts these tools in perspective by offering fresh insights on option trading and valuation. An essential guide for both professional and aspiring traders, this book explains the greeks in a straightforward and accessible style. It skillfully shows how they can be used to facilitate trading strategies that seek to profit from volatility, time decay, or changes in interest rates. Along the way, it makes use of new charts and examples, and discusses how the proper application of the greeks can lead to more accurate pricing and trading as well as alert you to a range of other opportunities. Completely updated with new material Information on spreads, put-call parity and synthetic options, trading volatility, and advanced option trading is also included Explores how to exploit the dynamics of option pricing to improve your trading Having a comprehensive understanding of the greeks is essential to long-term options trading success. Trading Options Greeks, Second Edition shows you how to use the greeks to find better trades, effectively manage them, and ultimately, become more profitable.
Author: Euan Sinclair
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470181990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Euan Sinclair
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470642521
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
An A to Z options trading guide for the new millennium and the new economy Written by professional trader and quantitative analyst Euan Sinclair, Option Trading is a comprehensive guide to this discipline covering everything from historical background, contract types, and market structure to volatility measurement, forecasting, and hedging techniques. This comprehensive guide presents the detail and practical information that professional option traders need, whether they're using options to hedge, manage money, arbitrage, or engage in structured finance deals. It contains information essential to anyone in this field, including option pricing and price forecasting, the Greeks, implied volatility, volatility measurement and forecasting, and specific option strategies. Explains how to break down a typical position, and repair positions Other titles by Sinclair: Volatility Trading Addresses the various concerns of the professional options trader Option trading will continue to be an important part of the financial landscape. This book will show you how to make the most of these profitable products, no matter what the market does.
