Local Warming and Violent Conflict in North and South Sudan PDF Download
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Author: Margherita Calderone
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.
Author: Margherita Calderone
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 78
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Book Description
Weather shocks and natural disasters, it has been argued, represent a major threat to national and international security. Our paper contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflict by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan at different geographical and time scales between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict. In the future the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 21 to 30 percent under a median scenario, taking into account uncertainties in both the climate projection and the estimate of the response of violence to temperature variations. Extreme temperature shocks are found to strongly affect the likelihood of violence as well, but the predictive power is hindered by substantial uncertainty. Our paper also sheds light on the vulnerability of areas with particular biophysical characteristics or with vulnerable populations.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789276534822
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This report explores the association between climate anomalies, population dynamics, conflict and organised violence in Sudan and South Sudan, at the sub-national level and for the years 1989-2015. The analyses are conducted using a spatial approach and with geocoded information on organized violence events, climate anomalies and population dynamics. Our results indicate a positive correlation of temperature anomalies with conflict and organised violence at the local level. Precipitation anomalies also positively correlate with organised violence, but to a lesser extent than temperature anomalies. We further explore the climate-security nexus in rural and urban environments in the two countries. Urban areas appear more vulnerable to the risk of organised violence, with the latter positively associated with temperature and precipitation anomalies, as well as with positive net migration. In less densely populated areas, violence is associated with climate anomaly values, though the correlation is lower than in densely populated areas. These results are also confirmed by the analysis based on the number of violent events. Finally, we observe a strong temporal dependence of violent events at the sub-national level.
Author: J. Andrew Plowman
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
ISBN: 9781523630097
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 172
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Book Description
In "Climate Change and Conflict Prevention: Lessons from Darfur," J. Andrew Plowman uses the Darfur conflict as a case study to examine how the effects of climate change might lead to future violent conflicts, and assesses the best way to prevent these conflicts. In his research, Plowman reviews the environmental security literature and applies events from Darfur to climate change models. This research suggests that climate change is likely to increase the potential for intrastate and communal conflicts, as populations adjust to changes in the environmental systems that support their livelihoods. Ultimately, Plowman's examination of the Darfur conflict recommends a focus on structural conflict prevention through building adaptability to climate change and through the strengthening of institutions, particularly in fragile states.
Author: United Nations;World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464811865
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 415
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Book Description
Violent conflicts today are complex and increasingly protracted, involving more nonstate groups and regional and international actors. It is estimated that by 2030—the horizon set by the international community for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals—more than half of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by high levels of violence. Information and communication technology, population movements, and climate change are also creating shared risks that must be managed at both national and international levels. Pathways for Peace is a joint United Nations†“World Bank Group study that originates from the conviction that the international community’s attention must urgently be refocused on prevention. A scaled-up system for preventive action would save between US$5 billion and US$70 billion per year, which could be reinvested in reducing poverty and improving the well-being of populations. The study aims to improve the way in which domestic development processes interact with security, diplomacy, mediation, and other efforts to prevent conflicts from becoming violent. It stresses the importance of grievances related to exclusion—from access to power, natural resources, security and justice, for example—that are at the root of many violent conflicts today. Based on a review of cases in which prevention has been successful, the study makes recommendations for countries facing emerging risks of violent conflict as well as for the international community. Development policies and programs must be a core part of preventive efforts; when risks are high or building up, inclusive solutions through dialogue, adapted macroeconomic policies, institutional reform, and redistributive policies are required. Inclusion is key, and preventive action needs to adopt a more people-centered approach that includes mainstreaming citizen engagement. Enhancing the participation of women and youth in decision making is fundamental to sustaining peace, as well as long-term policies to address the aspirations of women and young people.
Author: Ken Conca
Publisher: Woodrow Wilson Center Press
ISBN: 9780801871931
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
Eight contributions written by professors of political science, government, and politics as well as researchers and program directors for environmental change, energy, and security projects provide insight into the process of environmental peacemaking, based on their experiences in a variety of international regions. An initial chapter makes a case for the process; successive chapters address the Baltic, South Asia, the Aral Sea basin, southern Africa, the Caspian Sea, and the US-Mexican border. Annotation (c)2003 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com).
Author: Dan Smith
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781898702900
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Climate change is upon us and its physical effects have started to unfold. That is the broad scientific consensus expressed in the Fourth Assessment Review of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. This report takes this finding as its starting point and looks at the social and human consequences that are likely to ensue--particularly the risks of conflict and instability.
Author: Øystein H. Rolandsen
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521116317
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
South Sudan is the world's youngest independent country. This book provides a general history of the new country.
Author: Edoardo Borgomeo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464819432
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 173
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Book Description
South Sudan is the third most vulnerable country to climate change in the world, and one of the most politically fragile. Rising from the Depths illustrates how South Sudan can leverage its water resources to prepare for climate change and advance national peace and development.
Author: Richard Overy
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN: 1324021756
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Why has war been such a consistent presence throughout the human past? A leading historian explains, drawing on rich examples and keen insight. Richard Overy is not the first scholar to take up the title question. In 1931, at the request of the League of Nations, Albert Einstein asked Sigmund Freud to collaborate on a short work examining whether there was “a way of delivering mankind from the menace of war.” Published the next year as a pamphlet entitled Why War?, it conveyed Freud’s conclusion that the “death drive” made any deliverance impossible—the psychological impulse to destruction was universal in the animal kingdom. The global wars of the later 1930s and 1940s seemed ample evidence of the dismal conclusion. A preeminent historian of those wars, Overy brings vast knowledge to the title question and years of experience unraveling the knotted motivations of war. His approach is to separate the major drivers and motivations, and consider the ways each has contributed to organized conflict. They range from the impulses embedded in human biology and psychology, to the incentives to conflict developed through cultural evolution, to competition for resources—conflicts stirred by the passions of belief, the effects of ecological stresses, the drive for power in leaders and nations, and the search for security. The discussions show remarkable range, delving deep into the Neolithic past, through the twentieth-century world wars, and up to the current conflict in Ukraine. The examples are absorbing, from the Roman Empire’s voracious appetite for resources to the impulse to power evident in Alexander the Great, Napoleon, and Hitler. The conclusion is not hopeful, but Overy’s book is a gift to readers: a compact, judicious, engrossing examination of a fundamental question.
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN: 0896295664
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
This Food Policy Report explains why there is a need to place even higher priority on food security-related policies and programs in conflict-prone countries, and offers insights for policymakers regarding how to do so. To understand the relationship between conflict and food security, this report builds a new conceptual framework of food security and applies it to four case studies on Egypt, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. It argues that food security-related policies and programs build resilience to conflict insofar as they are expected not only to help countries and people cope with and recover from conflict but also to contribute to preventing conflicts and support economic development more broadly: by helping countries and people become even better off.
