Local Forecasting Through Extrapolation of GOES Imagery Patterns PDF Download
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Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 8
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Book Description
An attractive approach to short-range forecasting is to determine cloud motion from a sequence of satellite images and extrapolate the patterns and associated weather into the future. Objective motion vector techniques are available and the forecast procedure can be accomplished by computer. This approach is being evaluated at AFGL and this report presents results of testing motion vector techniques. Tracking and covariance techniques were compared along with winds aloft and persistence (no motion) as controls. A covariance technique had top score, but only slightly better than persistence. Complicating factors and implications to forecasting are discussed. (Author).
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 8
Get Book Here
Book Description
An attractive approach to short-range forecasting is to determine cloud motion from a sequence of satellite images and extrapolate the patterns and associated weather into the future. Objective motion vector techniques are available and the forecast procedure can be accomplished by computer. This approach is being evaluated at AFGL and this report presents results of testing motion vector techniques. Tracking and covariance techniques were compared along with winds aloft and persistence (no motion) as controls. A covariance technique had top score, but only slightly better than persistence. Complicating factors and implications to forecasting are discussed. (Author).
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cloud forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
This report describes the development and testing of an objective technique to forecast cloudiness and precipitation through extrapolation of satellite imagery. By utilizing on objectively determined cloud-motion vector, the technique makes local forecasts of satellite parameters (brightness and IR temperature), with high temporal resolution, using simple linear extrapolation. Algorithms are then used to convert the satellite parameters to total cloud cover, probability of 1-hour precipitation, and presence of low, middle, and high clouds. The test program computed motion vectors and made forecasts out to 7 hours, in half-hour steps, at 30 locations. The program was tested on 12 spring and fall cases, using half-hourly GOES imagery. For periods beyond 2 hours, forecasts of cloud cover and precipitation were markedly better than persistence, which deficiencies in specification hindered short-period performance. Forecasts of cloud layers were worse than persistence due to inadequate specification algorithms. The net results were quite encouraging, and further refinements and developments are planned.
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Image processing
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Author:
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Category : Aeronautics
Languages : en
Pages : 702
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Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Artificial satellites
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
A previously developed advection forecast technique was modified to include data extracted from satellite imagery. A forecast experiment was then conducted using a data base gathered at AFGL during March 1984. This experiment was designed to test the usefulness of : (a) 3-hour forecast updates, (b) a biquadratic interpolation, and (c) cloud and precipitation information from satellite imagery. The test results confirmed earlier tests in that advection using space-averaged 500-mb winds produced the best overall scores and that in general the scores for 1 - 15 hours were better than persistence. The age of the advection flow (3, 6 or 9 hours old) did not affect forecast score, making updates useful. The biquadratic interpolation procedure produced better fits to observation than bilinear and appears to have improved forecasts. There was but a small benefit from adding satellite information to surface observations when forecasting cloud cover and hourly precipitation. the difficulties of trying to forecast even 30 to 50 percent of the time-change variance suggest that alternative approaches such as mesoscale modeling will be needed for accurate, reliable short-range forecasts.
Author: H. Stuart Muench
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Remote-sensing images
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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ISBN:
Category : Weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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ISBN:
Category : Hydrodynamic short range weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 436
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Category : Environmental geology
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Yuki Yamada
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889195325
Category : Awareness
Languages : en
Pages : 157
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Book Description
We intuitively believe that we are aware of the external world as it is. Unfortunately, this is not entirely true. In fact, the capacity of our sensory system is too small to veridically perceive the world. To overcome this problem, the sensory system has to spatiotemporally integrate neural signals in order to interpret the external world. However, the spatiotemporal integration involves severe neural latencies. How does the sensory system keep up with the ever-changing external world? As later discussed, ‘prediction’ and ‘postdiction’ are essential keywords here. For example, the sensory system uses temporally preceding events to predict subsequent events (e.g., Nijhawan, 1994; Kerzel, 2003; Hubbard, 2005) even when the preceding event is subliminally presented (Schmidt, 2000). Moreover, internal prediction modulates the perception of action outcomes (Bays et al., 2005; Cardoso-Leite et al., 2010) and sense of agency (Wenke et al., 2010). Prediction is also an indispensable factor for movement planning and control (Kawato, 1999). On the other hand, the sensory system also makes use of subsequent events to postdictively interpret a preceding event (e.g. Eagleman & Sejnowski, 2000; Enns, 2002; Khuu et al., 2010; Kawabe, 2011, 2012; Miyazaki et al., 2010; Ono & Kitazawa, 2011) and it's much the same even for infancy (Newman et al., 2008). Moreover, it has also been proposed that sense of agency stems not only from predictive processing but also from postdictive inference (Ebert & Wegner, 2011). The existence of postdictive processing is also supported by several neuroscience studies (Kamitani & Shimojo, 1999; Lau et al., 2007). How prediction and postdiction shape awareness of the external world is an intriguing question. Prediction is involved with the encoding of incoming signals, whereas postdiction is related to a re-interpretation of already encoded signals. Given this perspective, prediction and postdiction may exist along a processing stream for a single external event. However, it is unclear whether, and if so how, prediction and postdiction interact with each other to shape awareness of the external world. Awareness of the external world may also shape prediction and/or postdiction. It is plausible that awareness of the external world drives the prediction and postdiction of future and past appearances of the world. However, the literature provides little information about the role of awareness of the external world in prediction and postdiction. This background propelled us to propose this research topic with the aim of offering a space for systematic discussion concerning the relationship between awareness, prediction and postdiction among researchers in broad research areas, such as psychology, psychophysics, neuroscience, cognitive science, philosophy, and so forth. We encouraged papers that address one or more of the following questions: 1) How does prediction shape awareness of the external world? 2) How does postdiction shape awareness of the external world? 3) How do prediction and postdiction interact with each other in shaping awareness of the external world? 4) How does awareness of the external world shape prediction/postdiction?
