International Risk Sharing is Better Than You Think (or Exchange Rates are Much Too Smooth) PDF Download
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Author: Michael W. Brandt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility growths must be highly correlated across countries -- international risk sharing is better than you think. Conversely, if risks really are not shared internationally, exchange rates should vary more than they do -- exchange rates are much too smooth. We calculate an index of international risk sharing that formalizes this intuition in the context of both complete and incomplete capital markets. Our results suggest that risk sharing is indeed very high across several pairs of countries.
Author: Michael W. Brandt
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Exchange rates depreciate by the difference between the domestic and foreign marginal utility growths. Exchange rates vary a lot , as much as 10% per year. However, equity premia imply that marginal utility growths vary much more, by at least 50% per year. This means that marginal utility growths must be highly correlated across countries -- international risk sharing is better than you think. Conversely, if risks really are not shared internationally, exchange rates should vary more than they do -- exchange rates are much too smooth. We calculate an index of international risk sharing that formalizes this intuition in the context of both complete and incomplete capital markets. Our results suggest that risk sharing is indeed very high across several pairs of countries.
Author: Paul de Grauwe
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262042222
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 374
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Book Description
Discussions of the different theoretical and empirical paradigms for setting and predicting exchange rates.
Author: Hande Kucuk Tuger
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This thesis contributes to the theoretical literature that analyses the link between international asset trade and international risk sharing. Despite the massive increase in cross-border asset trade since the 1990's, consumption risk sharing across countries remains limited. In standard international business cycle models, efficient risk sharing requires that consumption should be higher in the country where it is cheaper to consume, implying a high positive correlation between relative consumption and real exchange rate, which is strongly rejected in the data. Recent contributions show that it is possible to account for this so-called 'consumption-real exchange rate anomaly' in models with goods and financial market frictions where international asset trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond. Chapter 1 analyses whether this class of models can account for the anomaly under a richer asset market structure where agents can trade in domestic and foreign currency bonds. Even such a small departure from the single bond economy implies too much risk sharing compared to the data although the number of assets that can be traded is less than the number of shocks affecting each economy. Introducing demand shocks alongside sector-specific productivity shocks can improve the performance of the model only under specific parameter and monetary policy settings. Chapter 2 extends this analysis to study the implications of international trade in equities, portfolio transaction costs and recursive utility. Chapter 3 studies the interaction between monetary policy and foreign currency positions in more detail. Different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal ex- change rate. These external positions, in turn, affect the cross-border transmission of monetary policy shocks via a valuation channel. The way export prices are set has important implications for optimal foreign currency positions and the valuation channel when prices are sticky and financial markets are incomplete. Chapter 4 compares the international transmission of uncertainty shocks under alternative asset markets with an emphasis on the behaviour of net foreign assets, exchange rate and currency risk premium and shows that a model with restricted asset trade performs better than a model with complete financial integration in matching certain aspects of the data regarding the dynamics of these variables in response to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
Author: Mr.Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463922639
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and varies across time and countries, whereas contagion risks are more significant intra-regionally, and relatively stable over the past decade. An overall tradeoff exists between risk sharing and contagion, but the terms of tradeoffs vary across countries, depending on relative economic fluctuations and inflation differentials. Asia, therefore, can potentially enhance risk sharing without raising contagion risk.
Author: Yavuz Arslan
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Richard Tilly
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540740554
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
Experts present their analyses of historical developments as well as new economic challenges for the European Union. Contributors, representatives from major banks and academia, point out the dramatic economic shifts among and within Europe, Asia, and the United States. At the bottom line of this EU analysis are major implications for investors, managers, policymakers, and the public at large in both the EU and the rest of the world.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 592
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Book Description
Author: Joong Shik Kang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
Author: Jesper Rangvid
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 57
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Book Description
We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that higher capital market integration forecasts more consumption risk sharing in the future. This finding is robust to controlling for trade openness and exchange rate volatility as alternative drivers of risk sharing. Finally, we calculate the welfare costs of imperfect consumption risk sharing and find that these costs vary over time, line up with variation in risk sharing, and are quite substantial during periods of low risk sharing.
Author: Gita Gopinath
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0444543155
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 773
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Book Description
What conclusions can be drawn from recent advances in international trade and international macroeconomics? New datasets, theoretical models, and empirical studies have resulted in fresh questions about the world trade and payment system. These chapters--six on trade and six on international macroeconomics--reveal the richness that researchers have uncovered in recent years. The chapters on foreign trade present, among other subjects, new integrated multisector analytical frameworks, the use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, the role of domestic institutions in shaping comparative advantage, and international trade agreements. On international macroeconomics, chapters explore the relation between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; risk sharing, allocation of capital across countries, and current account dynamics; and sovereign debt and financial crises. By addressing new issues while enabling deeper and sharper analyses of old issues, this volume makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the global economy. Systematically illuminates and interprets recent developments in research on international trade and international macroeconomics Focuses on newly developing questions and opportunities for future research Presents multiple perspectives on ways to understand the global economy
