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Author: Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Hong Kong, China's housing market witnessed dramatic appreciations recently, with the price index for private domestic housing units being 3 times higher than 10 years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By providing a theoretical model and empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices, we find that changes in housing price index reinforce price trends in the long term. Hong Kong, China's dollar quantitative easing, and the gross domestic product of the People's Republic of China (PRC) are positively related to housing prices and negatively to lending. The inability to increase supplies in response to rising demand since 2003 has also much to do with the skyrocketing prices. Moreover, mortgage-to-total loans value is shrinking due to the unaffordability of housing units at current prices. This trend has to be tackled in time, otherwise the PRC may incur severe consequences similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s.
Author: Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Hong Kong, China's housing market witnessed dramatic appreciations recently, with the price index for private domestic housing units being 3 times higher than 10 years ago. This trend is supported by both internal and external factors, as illustrated in this paper. By providing a theoretical model and empirical analysis on the key variables influencing housing prices, we find that changes in housing price index reinforce price trends in the long term. Hong Kong, China's dollar quantitative easing, and the gross domestic product of the People's Republic of China (PRC) are positively related to housing prices and negatively to lending. The inability to increase supplies in response to rising demand since 2003 has also much to do with the skyrocketing prices. Moreover, mortgage-to-total loans value is shrinking due to the unaffordability of housing units at current prices. This trend has to be tackled in time, otherwise the PRC may incur severe consequences similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s.
Author: Mr.R. Sean Craig
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463925948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
This paper uses an econometric model of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR to assess the effectiveness of alternative policies in slowing the increase in property prices. The rapid rise in property prices is well explained by macroconomic fundamentals; real GDP per capital, real domestic credit, construction costs, land supply, and the real interest rate. Policy can influence the property market though land supply and prudential and tax policy, with the latter policies taking the form of a stamp duty on property transactions and a tighter loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on lending. Land supply is the most effective policy insturment for restraining property price increases but it operates with a significant lag. The LTV and stamp duty dampen speculative activity that drives up property prices. While these policies can slow the increase in the short run, they should be guided by their long run objectives of financial stability and counteracting speculation.
Author: Si-ming Li
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 50
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Book Description
Author: Krzysztof Jajuga
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031101901
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 381
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Book Description
This volume presents a selection of peer-reviewed papers that address the latest developments in the methodology and applications of data analysis and classification tools to micro- and macroeconomic problems. The contributions were originally presented at the 30th Conference of the Section on Classification and Data Analysis of the Polish Statistical Association, SKAD 2021, held online in Poznań, Poland, September 8–10, 2021. Providing a balance between methodological and empirical studies, and covering a wide range of topics, the book is divided into five parts focusing on methods and applications in finance, economics, social issues and to COVID-19 data. The book is aimed at a wide audience, including researchers at universities and research institutions, PhD students, as well as practitioners, data scientists and employees in public statistical institutions.
Author: Bertrand Renaud
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
ISBN: 9622094384
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 137
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Book Description
'The real estate economy of Hong Kong is one of the most dynamic and sophisticated in the world, and has contributed greatly to the spectacular development of this vibrant city. More importantly, at a time of rapid globalization of the world economy, it is possibly the best model of the behaviour of an advanced real estate industry operating in an open economy. Hong Kong is thereforeof interest to analysts and policymakers everywhere, not least because of Hong Kong's political reintegration with China in 1997. With this in mind, the authors have managed to capture the key economic features of the private residential real estate market in Hong Kong in this compact volume. They have identified and highlighted critical institutions that contribute to the success and economic factors which shape the dynamics of all sectors of the real estate industry in Hong Kong. This book is essential reading for market analysts, policymakers, students and international readers with an interest in comparative analysis of real estate markets and institutions.' Professor Anthony Walker, Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics,The University of Hong Kong.
Author: Eddie Hui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study investigates whether there was a housing price bubble in Beijing and Shanghai in 2003. The existence of a bubble can be interpreted from (abnormal) interactions between housing prices and market fundamentals. This paper introduces an enhanced framework, with the combination of standard econometric methodologies: i.e. Granger causality tests and generalized impulse response analysis, and the reduced form of housing price determinants. A test case in Hong Kong, between 1990 and 2003, is included to test the reliability of our methods because Hong Kong has experienced the formation and bursting of a huge housing bubble around the year 1997. It is found that the pattern and magnitude of the estimated bubbles conform quite well to the discrepancies between the actual and predicted prices. Also, the findings suggest that there appeared a bubble in Shanghai in 2003, accounting for 22% of the housing price. By contrast, Beijing had no sign of a bubble in the same year. The bubble phenomenon, of course, should be taken with cautions. Nonetheless this study has laid the groundwork for further investigations in abnormal housing price phenomena in Mainland China.
Author: Siu-Kuen Chan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781361130261
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Major Factors Contributing to Rising Residential Property Prices in Hong Kong" by Siu-kuen, Chan, 陳少娟, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3196788 Subjects: Housing - Prices - China - Hong Kong Housing - Prices - Government policy - China - Hong Kong Real property - Prices
Author: Chun-Ping Tsang
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781361293409
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This dissertation, "Housing Market Bubbling Again After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008: Government's Actions to Prevent the Bursting of the Housing Bubble" by Chun-ping, Tsang, 曾俊平, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the economy of Hong Kong has not fully recovered but the housing prices in Hong Kong market have been rising strongly after 2009. In the late of 2008, Hong Kong's housing prices started to rebound and began to surge since early 2009 surpassing the peak in 1997. Government senior officials have issued their warnings for the increasing risk of a bubble forming in the housing market. In accordance with my study, the causes of the rapid growth in the housing prices could be generalized from three major factors which are 1) low interest rates, 2) Government housing policy and 3) hot money. It is found that the scenarios and backgrounds have resemblance to the Japan's bubble economy in 1989. The bursting of the 'Bubble Economy' has led Japan's economy to a serious recession of more than 20 years. In order to prevent the bursting of the housing bubble after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, the Hong Kong Government has implemented a series of preventative measures to eliminate the boom of bubble in the housing market. Those measures are first started in 2009 and in 2010, other concerned measures have been released by Government continuously after the following years. However, the housing prices still ascending in the past few years. Mr. John Tsang, the Hong Kong Financial Secretary warned that the price of secondhand flats on Hong Kong Island hit record levels, surpassing the peak reached during the 1997 housing bubble. Nowadays, Hong Kong is facing the downturn of world economy and the bad debt problems in Europe which will weaken the people's confidence on the housing market. In fact, the bursting of the housing bubble could be triggered by any adverse news or scandals. It will cause the housing prices begin to decline. The descending of the housing prices will further deteriorate the confidence of the people. It will generate a consequence so called the 'The Herding Effect' and will cause a huge amount of capital including the foreign investments retreated from the housing market within a very short period of time. The consequence will led the housing prices further collapse and trigger the bursting of housing bubble. In order to avoid the collapse of the Hong Kong housing market, the Government shall take much and more effectiveness preventative measures to tackle the booming of the housing bubbles. Otherwise, coupled with the consequence from 'The Herding Effect' and the continuously booming on the housing prices, once there is any adverse news or crashes come from internal or external, the housing bubble will be burst. The overall economic and financial stability in Hong Kong will face another serious impact and the Hong Kong Government, the home owners as well as the non-home owners have to experience another painful and bitter lesson since 1997 again. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4834335 Subjects: Housing policy - China - Hong Kong Real estate business - China - Hong Kong Home ownership - China - Hong Kong
Author: Qiongqiong Zheng
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781361006177
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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This dissertation, "Land Supply and Housing Prices: Empirical Studies of Hong Kong and Guangzhou" by Qiongqiong, Zheng, 郑琼琼, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: It is widely accepted that land supply plays an important role in restricting housing supply and adjusting housing price level. This study aims to explore the dynamic relationship and causality between land supply and housing price with the cases of Hong Kong and Guangzhou, which are two close relative Chinese cities under the framework of 'One country, two systems'. This study employs the vector auto-regression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test to disentangle the complicated relationship, long-run and short-run, between land supply and housing price. Besides, the dynamic analysis of VAR and VECM are conducted using innovation accounting methods such as impulse response function (IRF) and variance decomposition (VDC). The empirical results show that the land supply and housing price are co-integrated in Hong Kong during the sample period between 2001 and 2011, and a long-run unilateral causality is confirmed from housing price to land supply for Hong Kong. Regarding Guangzhou, although there is no co-integration between land supply and housing price during 2001 and 2011, Granger causality from land supply to housing price shows a time lag of 10 quarters. These findings imply the relative efficient market economy in the Hong Kong housing market compared to Guangzhou, which is also consistent with the differences in land leasing systems and housing markets in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. This study not only sheds light on the discrepancies of land leasing systems and housing market mechanism between capitalism and socialism, but also provides implications for policy makers in formulating strategy to improve housing affordability. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5108692 Subjects: Housing - Prices - China - Hong Kong Land use - China - Guangzhou Housing - Prices - China - Guangzhou Land use - China - Hong Kong
Author: Michael K. Fung
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1839099364
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
Serving up fresh insights on Hong Kong's economic growth, this book investigates issues such as housing, immigration, monetary and financial systems, the business environment, and international trade and finance to provide a coherent and comprehensive overview of Hong Kong’s position in the global economy.
