Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies PDF full book. Access full book title Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies by Philip Barrett. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148435205X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
Get Book Here
Book Description
Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
Author: Philip Barrett
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148435205X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 55
Get Book Here
Book Description
Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
Get Book Here
Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Get Book Here
Book Description
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498324029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 109
Get Book Here
Book Description
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498398588
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 230
Get Book Here
Book Description
Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Author: Yugo Koshima
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573330
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments’ future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities.
Author: S. Ali Abbas
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192591398
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 455
Get Book Here
Book Description
The last time global sovereign debt reached the level seen today was at the end of the Second World War, and this shaped a generation of economic policymaking. International institutions were transformed, country policies were often draconian and distortive, and many crises ensued. By the early 1970s, when debt fell back to pre-war levels, the world was radically different. It is likely that changes of a similar magnitude -for better and for worse - will play out over coming decades. Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject. Sovereign Debt brings together some of the world's leading researchers and specialists in sovereign debt to cover a range of sub-disciplines within this vast topic. It explores debt management with debt sustainability; debt reduction policies with crisis prevention policies; and the history with the conjuncture. It is a foundation text for all those interested in sovereign debt, with a particular focus real world examples and issues.
Author: Kevin Quigley
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
ISBN: 0228023335
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 307
Get Book Here
Book Description
The COVID-19 virus was responsible for the deaths of over thirty-five thousand Canadians in its first two years alone. Described as the biggest public health crisis of the century, it was an uncertain threat, which emerged within complex psychological, social, legal, administrative, and economic contexts. Seized by Uncertainty explains how Canadian governments responded to that threat. Despite early warning signs, governments failed to appreciate the trade-offs required to respond to the pandemic. Their approach, at times intolerant of debate and ignorant of diversity, served the interests of some over others. Their response prioritized stability and containment, enabling four in ten people to work from home, disproportionately benefiting an educated middle class who profited further from soaring stock markets and housing prices. Mental health issues spiked, racialized people were much more likely to test positive for the virus, those in low-income sectors experienced unstable employment and lacked workplace safety protections, the lives of low-risk youth were in constant suspension, and residents of some care homes were virtually abandoned. Seized by Uncertainty studies the pandemic response through the contexts in which it emerged, exposing uncomfortable truths about a fragmented society and governance problems that predated the threat.
Author: Mr.Paolo Mauro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536079
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Get Book Here
Book Description
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.
Author: Justin Vélez-Hagan
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1498571948
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 223
Get Book Here
Book Description
If governments followed the optimal fiscal policy path, surpluses in good times would counter necessary deficits during economic downturns, leading to worldwide balance. The world, however, has chosen to go in a different direction in recent decades, avoiding thrift in light of a decidedly more indebted future. When financial crises kicked off a global recession in 2008, the spotlight placed on countries’ fiscal conditions put pressure on policymakers around the globe to find a way to slow the growth of deficits and debt by imposing fiscal consolidations (or, more simply, austerity). How have these policies fared across the developed world? Were they even necessary to begin with? This book examines the many factors that have contributed to the success (or failure) of such policies, including timing, magnitude, accompanying policies, composition, and more, while explaining the economic rationale behind their choices.
