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Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475585233
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its steady state—including an inflation target—for a prolonged period. Persistence is important because it affects the output costs of lowering inflation back to the target, often described as the “sacrifice ratio”. In this paper I use inflation expectations to provide a comparison of inflation persistence in Brazil with a sample of inflation targeting (IT) countries. This approach suggests that inflation persistence increased in Brazil through early 2013, in contrast to many of its IT peers, mainly due to “upward” persistence. The 2013 rate hiking cycle may have contributed to some recent decline in persistence.
Author: Mr.Shaun K. Roache
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475585233
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its steady state—including an inflation target—for a prolonged period. Persistence is important because it affects the output costs of lowering inflation back to the target, often described as the “sacrifice ratio”. In this paper I use inflation expectations to provide a comparison of inflation persistence in Brazil with a sample of inflation targeting (IT) countries. This approach suggests that inflation persistence increased in Brazil through early 2013, in contrast to many of its IT peers, mainly due to “upward” persistence. The 2013 rate hiking cycle may have contributed to some recent decline in persistence.
Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148439223X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Author: Mr.Roberto Perrelli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484385292
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations.
Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475553226
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 159
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Book Description
This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
Author: Carmen Díaz-Roldán
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
ISBN: 1443881333
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 380
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Book Description
"In a globalized world characterized by huge international capital mobility, there has been renewed interest in international economics in both academic circles and economic policy forums and supranational institutions. The recent financial and economic crisis, in particular, has raised questions concerning the usefulness of several economic paradigms accepted by both academia and advising government institutions. Advances on International Economics offers a broad overview of recent developments in international economics, both theoretical and empirical, adapted from contributions to the XV Conference on International Economics, organized by the Spanish Association of International Economics and Finance (AEEFI), and the University of Salamanca, Spain. The main topics of the contributions to this volume cover modelling international economics, macroeconomic aspects of international trade and finance, international factor movements, and international business. The chapters offer new theories and practical insights through the use of empirical tools for international policy recommendations."--Provided by publisher.
Author: Edwin Goni
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498366821
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 14
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Book Description
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Author: Faisal Santiago
Publisher: European Alliance for Innovation
ISBN: 1631903845
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 938
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Book Description
This book contains the proceedings of the 2nd Multidiscipline International Conference (MIC) 2022 will be an annual event hosted by Nusantara Training and Research (NTR). This year (2022), this event was held in collaboration with Nusantara Training and Research (NTR) with Universitas Borobudur Jakarta will be held on the virtual conference on 12 November 2022 at Semarang, Indonesia. We carry the theme "Multidisciplinary Research Synergies in Generating Innovations in The Digitalization Era" trying to continue to synchronize with all aspects in the pandemic era and prepare to face the new normal, as well as outlook of the field of Call for papers fields to be included in MIC. The scope of this event is multidisciplinary. Starting from social science, economics, education, law, engineering, religion, and other sciences. This conference was attended by participants and delegates from various universities from Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunai Darussalam, Philippines, Australia, and Japan. More than 100 participants from academics, practitioners and bureaucrats took part in this event to exchange knowledge according to their research results and competencies.
Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464813760
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
