Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea PDF full book. Access full book title Inflation and Monetary Policy in a Low-Income and Fragile State: The Case of Guinea by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in fragile states is affected by highly volatile domestic factors that complicate monetary policy’s ability to deliver price stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea since the early 2000s, a period in which the country suffered major shocks from pandemics, commodity price movements, and multiple military coups, and during which inflation averaged 12 percent. Results confirm that global commodity and transport prices account for a large share of the variation in inflation. The contribution of monetary policy shocks to inflation is moderate, reflecting its broadly neutral stance throughout most of the last two decades. However, monetary policy has occasionally made larger contributions to inflation, and recently helped contain price pressures from high commodity prices. The effectiveness of monetary policy reflects a strong relationship between monetary aggregates and the exchange rate.
Author: Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
Inflation in low-income countries is often high and volatile, driven by external shocks. In addition, inflation in fragile states is affected by highly volatile domestic factors that complicate monetary policy’s ability to deliver price stability. We estimate the drivers of inflation in Guinea since the early 2000s, a period in which the country suffered major shocks from pandemics, commodity price movements, and multiple military coups, and during which inflation averaged 12 percent. Results confirm that global commodity and transport prices account for a large share of the variation in inflation. The contribution of monetary policy shocks to inflation is moderate, reflecting its broadly neutral stance throughout most of the last two decades. However, monetary policy has occasionally made larger contributions to inflation, and recently helped contain price pressures from high commodity prices. The effectiveness of monetary policy reflects a strong relationship between monetary aggregates and the exchange rate.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498344062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
Get Book Here
Book Description
Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.
Author: Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513573683
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Get Book Here
Book Description
High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
Get Book Here
Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51
Get Book Here
Book Description
Rwanda: Selected Issues
Author: Mr.Bjoern Rother
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475535783
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 43
Get Book Here
Book Description
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Author: Mr. Romain M Veyrune
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Get Book Here
Book Description
The finances of central banks is a topic of renewed interest: many central banks are posting significant losses due to the cost of monetary policy, over which central banks have no control. Conversely, operational expenses, over which the central banks have more control, is a subject of less attention. We use public income statement data from central banks to calculate a score for operational expense efficiency based on a stochastic frontier analysis. In addition, we offer potential explanations for the observed variations in efficiency levels across central banks. Our analysis reveals significant heterogeneity across countries and income groups. Central banks with a single objective demonstrate higher efficiency compared with those with multiple objectives. Regarding the output of price stability, central banks in low-income developing countries exhibit lower efficiency compared with central banks in emerging markets and advanced economies. Factors such as central bank independence, the depth of the financial system, and the degree of openness play a role in influencing efficiency levels. Our findings underscore the significance of well-defined objectives, the operating environment, and concentration on core activities in reducing inefficiency.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
Get Book Here
Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Susan E. Rice
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Developing countries
Languages : en
Pages : 39
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper presents the Index of State Weakness in the Developing World, which ranks all 141 developing countries according to their relative performance in four critical spheres: economic, political, security, and social welfare.
Author: Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589065659
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 62
Get Book Here
Book Description
Financial sectors in low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are among the world's least developed. In fact, assets in most low-income African countries are smaller than those held by a single medium-sized bank in an industrial country. The absence of deep, efficient financial markets seriously challenges policy making, hinders poverty alleviation, and constrains growth. This book argues that building efficient and sound financial sectors in SSA countries will improve Africa's economic prospects. Based on a review of the key features of financial systems, it discusses the main obstacles and challenges that financial structures pose for SSA economies and recommends steps that could address major shortcomings in implementing the reform agenda.
