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Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
This paper argues that global perspective can help us with the identification of structural shocks by utilizing the information on the signs of the responses of individual countries (cross section units). We demonstrate the main idea by means of Monte Carlo experiments and present an empirical application where we look at the effects of oil supply shocks on output and on global exchange rate constellation. Using a large-scale GVAR model of oil process and the global economy, we find supply shocks tend to have a stronger impact on emerging economies' real output as compared with mature economies, have a negative impact on real growth in oil-exporting economies as well, and tend to cause an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This paper also illustrates some pitfalls with the existing measures to summarize the available information on structural shocks identified using sign restrictions when the dimension of the model is large (as it is in the case of global models).
Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
This paper argues that global perspective can help us with the identification of structural shocks by utilizing the information on the signs of the responses of individual countries (cross section units). We demonstrate the main idea by means of Monte Carlo experiments and present an empirical application where we look at the effects of oil supply shocks on output and on global exchange rate constellation. Using a large-scale GVAR model of oil process and the global economy, we find supply shocks tend to have a stronger impact on emerging economies' real output as compared with mature economies, have a negative impact on real growth in oil-exporting economies as well, and tend to cause an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. This paper also illustrates some pitfalls with the existing measures to summarize the available information on structural shocks identified using sign restrictions when the dimension of the model is large (as it is in the case of global models).
Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455209619
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper examines the importance of credit market shocks in driving global business cycles over the period 1988:1-2009:4. We first estimate common components in various macroeconomic and financial variables of the G-7 countries. We then evaluate the role played by credit market shocks using a series of VAR models. Our findings suggest that these shocks have been influential in driving global activity during the latest global recession. Credit shocks originating in the United States also have a significant impact on the evolution of world growth during global recessions.
Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Mauricio Vargas
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513522299
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.
Author: M. Hashem Pesaran
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198736916
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1095
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Book Description
This book is concerned with recent developments in time series and panel data techniques for the analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. It provides a rigorous, nevertheless user-friendly, account of the time series techniques dealing with univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as panel data models. It is distinct from other time series texts in the sense that it also covers panel data models and attempts at a more coherent integration of time series, multivariate analysis, and panel data models. It builds on the author's extensive research in the areas of time series and panel data analysis and covers a wide variety of topics in one volume. Different parts of the book can be used as teaching material for a variety of courses in econometrics. It can also be used as reference manual. It begins with an overview of basic econometric and statistical techniques, and provides an account of stochastic processes, univariate and multivariate time series, tests for unit roots, cointegration, impulse response analysis, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, simultaneous equation models, vector autoregressions, causality, forecasting, multivariate volatility models, panel data models, aggregation and global vector autoregressive models (GVAR). The techniques are illustrated using Microfit 5 (Pesaran and Pesaran, 2009, OUP) with applications to real output, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices.
Author: G. Cornelis van Kooten
Publisher: CABI
ISBN: 178924823X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 213
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Book Description
Because of the long-standing Canada-U.S. lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and facilitate readers in easily constructing their own models to analyse policy questions that they wish to address, whether in forestry or some other sector. Examples in the book are meant to illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one nation on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world. This book will appeal to practising economists and researchers who wish to examine various policies that affect international trade, whether their interest is local or international in scope. Because the book provides the theoretical bases underlying various models, students and practitioners will find this a valuable reference book or supplementary textbook.
Author: Sydney C. Ludvigson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Autoregression (Statistics)
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Identifying assumptions need to be imposed on autoregressive models before they can be used to analyze the dynamic effects of economically interesting shocks. Often, the assumptions are only rich enough to identify a set of solutions. This paper considers two types of restrictions on the structural shocks that can help reduce the number of plausible solutions. The first is imposed on the sign and magnitude of the shocks during unusual episodes in history. The second restricts the correlation between the shocks and components of variables external to the autoregressive model. These non-linear inequality constraints can be used in conjunction with zero and sign restrictions that are already widely used in the literature. The effectiveness of our constraints are illustrated using two applications of the oil market and Monte Carlo experiments calibrated to study the role of uncertainty shocks in economic fluctuations.
Author: Martin Feldkircher
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513547437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
Author: Gevork Hartoonian
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317127447
Category : Architecture
Languages : en
Pages : 302
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Book Description
Judging from the debates taking place in both education and practice, it appears that architecture is deeply in crisis. New design and production techniques, together with the globalization of capital and even skilled-labour, have reduced architecture to a commodified object, its aesthetic qualities tapping into the current pervasive desire for the spectacular. These developments have changed the architect’s role in the design and production processes of architecture. Moreover, critical architectural theories, including those of Breton, Heidegger and Benjamin, which explored the concepts of technology, modernism, labour and capital and how technology informed the cultural, along with later theories from the 1960s, which focused more on the architect’s theorization of his/her own design strategies, seem increasingly irrelevant. In an age of digital reproduction and commodification, these theoretical approaches need to be reassessed. Bringing together essays and interviews from leading scholars such as Kenneth Frampton, Peggy Deamer, Bernard Tschumi, Donald Kunze and Marco Biraghi, this volume investigates and critically addresses various dimensions of the present crisis of architecture. It poses questions such as: Is architecture a conservative cultural product servicing a given producer/consumer system? Should architecture’s affiliative ties with capitalism be subjected to a measure of criticism that can be expanded to the entirety of the cultural realm? Is architecture’s infusion into the cultural the reason for the visibility of architecture today? What room does the city leave for architecture beyond the present delirium of spectacle? Should the thematic of various New Left criticisms of capitalism be taken as the premise of architectural criticism? Or alternatively, putting the notion of criticality aside is it enough to confine criticism to the production of insightful and pleasurable texts?
