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Author: Carsten Holst
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Wheat price forecasts are very important for traders, farmers and politicians as well. However, only quite accurate price predictions can guide these groups towards making the best decisions. Therefore the well-known wheat price projections of both the OECD and the FAPRI from 1996 on are tested for their predictive accuracy using Theil's inequality coefficient. Despite the fact that both models could not foresee the price peak which occurred in February 2008, their predictions offer more accurate values than a naive prediction of no price change. Nevertheless, precise price forecasts cannot be expected by the models of the OECD and the FAPRI since some short-run effects such as inappropriate weather are not predictable. Thus, our own econometric model is developed taking the previous price development, the stocks-to-use-ratio and the crude oil price into account. In comparison to the projections of both institutions the model, with rather simple assumptions, was able to generate forecasts more accurately. In a simulation study which takes different crude oil price levels and stochastic effects of the world wheat consumption and the average yields per hectare into account, the possible wheat price range is shown as large. Therefore, price predictions can only inform about general longrun trends. -- wheat price forecasts ; predictive accuracy ; Theil's inequality coefficient
Author: Carsten Holst
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Wheat price forecasts are very important for traders, farmers and politicians as well. However, only quite accurate price predictions can guide these groups towards making the best decisions. Therefore the well-known wheat price projections of both the OECD and the FAPRI from 1996 on are tested for their predictive accuracy using Theil's inequality coefficient. Despite the fact that both models could not foresee the price peak which occurred in February 2008, their predictions offer more accurate values than a naive prediction of no price change. Nevertheless, precise price forecasts cannot be expected by the models of the OECD and the FAPRI since some short-run effects such as inappropriate weather are not predictable. Thus, our own econometric model is developed taking the previous price development, the stocks-to-use-ratio and the crude oil price into account. In comparison to the projections of both institutions the model, with rather simple assumptions, was able to generate forecasts more accurately. In a simulation study which takes different crude oil price levels and stochastic effects of the world wheat consumption and the average yields per hectare into account, the possible wheat price range is shown as large. Therefore, price predictions can only inform about general longrun trends. -- wheat price forecasts ; predictive accuracy ; Theil's inequality coefficient
Author: William G. Tomek
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 0801471109
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 484
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Book Description
Published continuously since 1972, Agricultural Product Prices has become the standard textbook and reference work for students in agricultural and applied economics, buyers and sellers of commodities, and policymakers, clearly explaining conceptual and empirical models applicable to agricultural product markets. The new fifth edition uses up-to-date information and models to explain the behavior of agricultural product prices. Topics include price differences over market levels (marketing margins), price differences over space (regionally and internationally) and by quality attributes, and price variability with the passage of time (seasonal and cyclical variations, trends, and random behavior). William G. Tomek and Harry M. Kaiser review and adapt microeconomic principles to the characteristics of agricultural commodity markets and then apply these principles to the various dimensions of price behavior. They also provide an in-depth discussion of prices established for futures contracts and their relationship to cash (spot) market prices; cover the influential roles of price discovery institutions, such as auctions and negotiated contracts, and government policies regulating trade and farms; and discuss the specification, use, and evaluation of empirical models of agricultural prices, placing emphasis on the challenges of doing high-quality, useful analyses and interpreting results.
Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441976345
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
Author: B.R. Munier
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 1614990379
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.
Author: Bertrand Munier
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 1614990360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
"The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization's oversimplified faith in free markets. The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds - professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations - the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide."--Publisher's website.
Author: William G. Tomek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
Principles of price determination. Price differences and variability. Princing institutions. Introduction to empirical price analysis.
Author: S. R. Takle
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 230
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Book Description
Agricultural Prices Particularly Of Foodgrains And Oilseeds Play An Important Role In The Whole National Economy Of India. They Affect Production Decisions By The Farmers And Their Incomes. Variations In Prices Of Agricultural Commodities Is A Big Problem In Indian Agriculture Because Of The Dependence Of Production On Monsoons. Agricultural Prices Exhibit Spatial And Temporal Price Fluctuations. Temporal Price Variations Include Seasonal, Annual And Long-Term Fluctuations. The Present Book Analyses The Temporal Price Variation In Foodgrains And Oilseeds And Makes Suggestions To Minimize The Variation In Prices Of Agricultural Commodities In India
Author: Mary Ahearn
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0429689683
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 414
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Book Description
Policymakers, farmers, managers of agriculture and others look to agricultural economists for accurate estimates of the costs and returns of individual agricultural commodities. But there is great diversity and disagreement among practitioners about the best method for such analysis. The contributors to this volume explore how different uses of estimates determine different methods of estimation, as well as evaluating what the preferred methods are for similar uses.
Author: Madhu Khanna
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441903690
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 435
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Book Description
Concerns about energy security, uncertainty about oil prices, declining oil reserves, and global climate change are fueling a shift towards bioenergy as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels. Public policies and private investments around the globe are aiming to increase local capacity to produce biofuels. A key constraint to the expansion of biofuel production is the limited amount of land available to meet the needs for fuel, feed, and food in the coming decades. Large-scale biofuel production raises concerns about food versus fuel tradeoffs, about demands for natural resources such as water, and about potential impacts on environmental quality. The book is organized into five parts. The introductory part provides a context for the emerging economic and policy challenges related to bioenergy and the motivations for biofuels as an energy source. The second part of the handbook includes chapters that examine the implications of expanded production of first generation biofuels for the allocation of land between food and fuel and for food/feed prices and trade in biofuels as well as the potential for technology improvements to mitigate the food vs. fuel competition for land. Chapters in the third part examine the infrastructural and logistical challenges posed by large scale biofuel production and the factors that will influence the location of biorefineries and the mix of feedstocks they use. The fourth part includes chapters that examine the environmental implications of biofuels, their implications for the design of policies and the unintended environmental consequences of existing biofuel policies. The final part presents economic analysis of the market, social welfare, and distributional effects of biofuel policies.
Author: Frederick Vail Waugh
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Agricultural prices
Languages : en
Pages : 106
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Book Description
