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Author: Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513598988
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Author: Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513598988
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Get Book Here
Book Description
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Author: Mr.Serhat Solmaz
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513571834
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Author: Leslie Lipschitz
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108568467
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.
Author: Ms.Ratna Sahay
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484356004
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discussed its plans for tapering unconventional monetary policies, these emerging markets have experienced financial turbulence at the same that their domestic economic activity has slowed. This paper examines their experiences and policy responses and draws broad policy lessons. For emerging markets, good macroeconomic fundamentals matter, and early and decisive measures to strengthen macroeconomic policies and reduce vulnerabilities help dampen market reactions to external shocks. For advanced economies, clear and effective communication about the exit from unconventional monetary policy can and did help later to reduce the risk of excessive market volatility. And for the global community, enhanced global cooperation, including a strong global financial safety net, offers emerging markets effective protection against excessive volatility.
Author: Mr.JaeBin Ahn
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463924607
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
This paper provides a theory model of trade finance to explain the "great trade collapse." The model shows that, first, the riskiness of international transactions rises relative to domestic transactions during economic downturns, and second, the exclusive use of a letter of credit in international transactions exacerbates a collapse in trade during a financial crisis. The basic model considers banks' optimal screening decisions in the presence of counterparty default risks. In equilibrium, banks will maintain a higher precision screening test for domestic firms and a lower precision screening test for foreign firms, which constitutes the main mechanism of the model.
Author: Vanessa T. Tang
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319961667
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276
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Book Description
This edited volume analyzes the Mauritius economy and highlights what conditions and policies have contributed to the development of the country. The project gives a historical and economic analysis of Mauritius and provides comparative approaches looking at other developing states in Africa and Asia. This book is intended for a broad audience, consisting of not only economists with quantitative expertise but also other social scientists, policymakers and scholars interested in the intellectually fascinating exploration of Mauritius’s rapid rise and sustained growth performance.
Author: Mr.Hamid R Davoodi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781589062290
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Author: Mark Dougan
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317794486
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 280
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Book Description
First published in 2002.This volume is a political economy analysis o f China 's civil aviation industry, with a focus on the reform period beginning in the late 1970s up to the present. The chief aim is to identify and analyze the most important political economy variables impacting on the industry's development during this time.
Author: J. Moses
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0333977858
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
In response to the largely closed-economy assumptions of most cross-national work on economic policy-making, Open States in the Global Economy offers an outside-in framework for analyzing the way in which national economic sovereignty is affected by globalization. This framework is then applied to a detailed case study of Norway's economic policy in the postwar period. The 'Open State' framework offers a new way to interpret how external changes affect domestic policy-makers and their preferences.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451944780
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 279
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Book Description
This paper describes the world economy in 1991 and balanced growth in industrial countries. The year 1985 has been somewhat disappointing from the viewpoint of economic growth. Expansion fell back by more than expected in the industrial world, and world trade increased only modestly. Macroeconomic policies in industrial countries are likely to be directed toward the medium-term objective of maintaining financial stability, while reducing the claims of governments on economic resources. Macroeconomic policies in developing countries reflect the considerable diversity of circumstances of the countries included in this group.
