Author: Ms.Li L. Ong
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475527063
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.
Author: Mr.Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513520741
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 73
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Book Description
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Author: Bertrand Candelon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484315480
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
We use event study methods to compare the market reaction to U.S. and EU-wide stress tests performed from 2009 to 2013. Typically, stress tests have a positive impact on stressed banks’ returns. While the 2009 U.S. stress test had a large positive outcome, the impact of subsequent U.S. exercises decreased over time. The 2011 EU exercise is the only EU-wide stress test that resulted in a significant negative market reaction. Comparing past exercises suggests that the qualitative aspects of the governance of stress tests can matter more for stock market participants than technical elements, such as the level of the minimum capital adequacy threshold or the extent of data disclosure.
Author: Itay Goldstein
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781601987686
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
Should Banks Stress Test Results be Disclosed? An Analysis of the Costs and Benefits reviews the theoretical literature on disclosure, tying it to the recent policy debate on whether stress-test results should be disclosed. The authors review the nature of stress tests required by the Dodd-Frank act and conducted by the Federal Reserve, an important aspect of which is the public disclosure of the results. Then, it compares the arguments for and against the disclosure of banks stress test results. While the rationale for disclosing stress test results may seem intuitive in the wake of the financial crisis, some argue that disclosing these results may actually have negative unintended consequences. Using insights from recent theoretical models, the authors provide a framework for understanding these negative unintended consequences. The authors argue that the benefits of disclosing stress-test results are clear: stress tests may uncover unique information about banks allowing both bank supervisors and market participants to exercise discipline on the bank s behavior. But because banks operate in second-best environments that are prone to externalities, there are inherent costs associated with such disclosures, and proper understanding of the sources of these costs would better inform the debate and guide regulators when designing stress tests and handling the disclosures. Should Banks Stress Test Results be Disclosed? An Analysis of the Costs and Benefits is organized as follows. After a brief introduction, Section 2 reviews the nature of stress tests and considers the unique information they provide to outsiders. Section 3 explains how disclosures of stress tests could provide regulatory and market discipline, and the positive impact such discipline may have on economic efficiency. The main section, Section 4, provides an in-depth review of the possible costs of disclosure. Building on the previous section, Section 5 shows that there are non-trivial trade-offs associated with disclosure of stress-test result, and provides several policy recommendations for regulators regarding test design and disclosure of results. Section 6 concludes by reiterating the need for the development of a framework that captures the combined effects on all banks, and the challenge this poses for academics and policy makers."
Author: Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149832455X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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Book Description
Over the last decade, stress testing has become a central aspect of the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance work. Recently, more emphasis has also been placed on the role of insurance for financial stability analysis. This paper reviews the current state of system-wide solvency stress tests for insurance based on a comparative review of national practices and the experiences from Fund’s FSAP program with the aim of providing practical guidelines for the coherent and consistent implementation of such exercises. The paper also offers recommendations on improving the current insurance stress testing approaches and presentation of results.
Author: Morris Goldstein
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0881327069
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 369
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Book Description
Spurred by the success of the first stress test of US banks toward the end of the global economic crisis in 2009, stress testing of large financial institutions has become the cornerstone of banking supervision worldwide. The aim of the tests is to determine which banks are adequately capitalized under severe economic shocks and to order corrective measures for those that are vulnerable. In Banking’s Final Exam, one of the world’s leading experts on banking regulation concludes that the tests administered on both sides of the Atlantic suffer from fundamental weaknesses, leading to a false sense of reassurance about the safety and soundness of the banking system. Some weaknesses can be corrected within the existing bank-capital regime, but others will require bold reforms—including higher minimum capital requirements for the largest and most systemically-important banks. The banking industry is likely to resist these reforms, but this book explains why their objections do not hold water.
Author: Timothy F. Geithner
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 0804138605
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 610
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Book Description
New York Times Bestseller Washington Post Bestseller Los Angeles Times Bestseller Stress Test is the story of Tim Geithner’s education in financial crises. As president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then as President Barack Obama’s secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner helped the United States navigate the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, from boom to bust to rescue to recovery. In a candid, riveting, and historically illuminating memoir, he takes readers behind the scenes of the crisis, explaining the hard choices and politically unpalatable decisions he made to repair a broken financial system and prevent the collapse of the Main Street economy. This is the inside story of how a small group of policy makers—in a thick fog of uncertainty, with unimaginably high stakes—helped avoid a second depression but lost the American people doing it. Stress Test is also a valuable guide to how governments can better manage financial crises, because this one won’t be the last. Stress Test reveals a side of Secretary Geithner the public has never seen, starting with his childhood as an American abroad. He recounts his early days as a young Treasury official helping to fight the international financial crises of the 1990s, then describes what he saw, what he did, and what he missed at the New York Fed before the Wall Street boom went bust. He takes readers inside the room as the crisis began, intensified, and burned out of control, discussing the most controversial episodes of his tenures at the New York Fed and the Treasury, including the rescue of Bear Stearns; the harrowing weekend when Lehman Brothers failed; the searing crucible of the AIG rescue as well as the furor over the firm’s lavish bonuses; the battles inside the Obama administration over his widely criticized but ultimately successful plan to end the crisis; and the bracing fight for the most sweeping financial reforms in more than seventy years. Secretary Geithner also describes the aftershocks of the crisis, including the administration’s efforts to address high unemployment, a series of brutal political battles over deficits and debt, and the drama over Europe’s repeated flirtations with the economic abyss. Secretary Geithner is not a politician, but he has things to say about politics—the silliness, the nastiness, the toll it took on his family. But in the end, Stress Test is a hopeful story about public service. In this revealing memoir, Tim Geithner explains how America withstood the ultimate stress test of its political and financial systems.
Author: Bertrand Candelon
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484315375
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
We use event study methods to compare the market reaction to U.S. and EU-wide stress tests performed from 2009 to 2013. Typically, stress tests have a positive impact on stressed banks’ returns. While the 2009 U.S. stress test had a large positive outcome, the impact of subsequent U.S. exercises decreased over time. The 2011 EU exercise is the only EU-wide stress test that resulted in a significant negative market reaction. Comparing past exercises suggests that the qualitative aspects of the governance of stress tests can matter more for stock market participants than technical elements, such as the level of the minimum capital adequacy threshold or the extent of data disclosure.
Author: Mr.Nassim N. Taleb
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505663
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
Author: Bertrand Candelon
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781475559408
Category : Crisis management
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
We use event study methods to compare the market reaction to U.S. and EU-wide stress tests performed from 2009 to 2013. Typically, stress tests have a positive impact on stressed banks' returns. While the 2009 U.S. stress test had a large positive outcome, the impact of subsequent U.S. exercises decreased over time. The 2011 EU exercise is the only EU-wide stress test that resulted in a significant negative market reaction. Comparing past exercises suggests that the qualitative aspects of the governance of stress tests can matter more for stock market participants than technical elements, such as the level of the minimum capital adequacy threshold or the extent of data disclosure. --Abstract.
