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Author: Eddie Hui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study investigates whether there was a housing price bubble in Beijing and Shanghai in 2003. The existence of a bubble can be interpreted from (abnormal) interactions between housing prices and market fundamentals. This paper introduces an enhanced framework, with the combination of standard econometric methodologies: i.e. Granger causality tests and generalized impulse response analysis, and the reduced form of housing price determinants. A test case in Hong Kong, between 1990 and 2003, is included to test the reliability of our methods because Hong Kong has experienced the formation and bursting of a huge housing bubble around the year 1997. It is found that the pattern and magnitude of the estimated bubbles conform quite well to the discrepancies between the actual and predicted prices. Also, the findings suggest that there appeared a bubble in Shanghai in 2003, accounting for 22% of the housing price. By contrast, Beijing had no sign of a bubble in the same year. The bubble phenomenon, of course, should be taken with cautions. Nonetheless this study has laid the groundwork for further investigations in abnormal housing price phenomena in Mainland China.
Author: Eddie Hui
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This study investigates whether there was a housing price bubble in Beijing and Shanghai in 2003. The existence of a bubble can be interpreted from (abnormal) interactions between housing prices and market fundamentals. This paper introduces an enhanced framework, with the combination of standard econometric methodologies: i.e. Granger causality tests and generalized impulse response analysis, and the reduced form of housing price determinants. A test case in Hong Kong, between 1990 and 2003, is included to test the reliability of our methods because Hong Kong has experienced the formation and bursting of a huge housing bubble around the year 1997. It is found that the pattern and magnitude of the estimated bubbles conform quite well to the discrepancies between the actual and predicted prices. Also, the findings suggest that there appeared a bubble in Shanghai in 2003, accounting for 22% of the housing price. By contrast, Beijing had no sign of a bubble in the same year. The bubble phenomenon, of course, should be taken with cautions. Nonetheless this study has laid the groundwork for further investigations in abnormal housing price phenomena in Mainland China.
Author: Martin Eichenbaum
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022639574X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 517
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Book Description
This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.
Author: Richard Koss
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484348559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.
Author: Yukio Noguchi
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226590208
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 280
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Book Description
Although Japan and the United States are the world's leading economies, there are significant differences in the ways their wealth is translated into living standards. A careful comparison of housing markets illustrates not only how living standards in the two countries differ, but also reveals much about saving patterns and how they affect wealth accumulation. In this volume, ten essays discuss the evolution of housing prices, housing markets and personal savings, housing finance, commuting, and the impact of public policy on housing markets. The studies reveal surprising differences in housing investment in the two countries. For example, because down payments in Japan are much higher than in the United States, Japanese tend to delay home purchases relative to their American counterparts. In the United States, the advent of home equity credit may have reduced private saving overall. This book is the first comparison of housing markets in Japan and the United States, and its findings illuminate the effects of housing markets on productivity growth, business investment, and trade.
Author: Qingyuan Zhou
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642230229
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 626
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Book Description
This four-volume-set (CCIS 208, 209, 210, 211) constitutes the refereed proceedings of the International Symposium on Applied Economics, Business and Development, ISAEBD 2011, held in Dalian, China, in August 2011. The papers address issues related to Applied Economics, Business and Development and cover various research areas including Economics, Management, Education and its Applications.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 1430
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Book Description
Author: Iris Claus
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118982479
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 208
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Book Description
This collection of critical surveys provides readers with a range of up-to-date work from leading scholars in the area, writing on some of the key issues facing China, as they survey the present and future challenges of the Chinese economy Nine papers provide detailed discussion on key aspects of the past, present and future of the Chinese economy Leaders in their relevant fields of scholarship tackle some of the critical issues facing China Contributors identify common themes, including the household registration system, urbanization, demographic transition, inequality and the sustainability of economic growth Articles provide a critical review of the literature and discuss policy implications and areas for future research
Author: Mr.Ashvin Ahuja
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210811
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary Chinese lending growth during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities’ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China.Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have,a structural driver.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210803
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Sharp increase in house prices in Hong Kong SAR in 2009-2010 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. According to our measure of price deviation from fundamentals, which should be taken as an early warning indicator of market exuberance, the current level of house prices in Hong Kong SAR does not seem to be significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. Moreover, unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, deviation from fundamentals has not been persistent in Hong Kong.Going forward, low interest rate and improving growth prospects, as well as a tight supply, particularly in the mass market, means that house price growth will continue to be strong.This is the period in which vulnerability may be accumulating, and tight prudential standards and fiscal measures will be required to tame price inflation.
Author: Donglang Yang
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642449166
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 700
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Book Description
The Chinese Research Institute of Construction Management (CRIOCM) in collaboration with Xi'an Jiaotong University proudly invites all academics, researchers and professionals to participate in the CRIOCM 2013, the 18th International Symposium on "Advancement of Construction Management and Real Estate". We will uphold and preserve the idea and tradition of pragmatism and innovation, to offer an excellent academic and communication platform for academics and professionals to exchange information on the latest developments in real estate and construction management.
