Hilbert-Huang Based Volatility Forecasts for High Frequency Data and Simulated Option Markets PDF Download
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Author: Carson Drummond
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
In this paper we introduce a new way to estimate the spot volatility of high frequency foreign exchange data using the Hilbert-Huang Transform. We also propose and test a consistent spot volatility estimate in the presence of microstructure noise. The problem of assessing the validity of latent variable estimates is overcome by setting up a virtual options trading market in which competing volatility forecasts buy and sell straddle options to one another using real high frequency foreign exchange data.
Author: Carson Drummond
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
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Book Description
In this paper we introduce a new way to estimate the spot volatility of high frequency foreign exchange data using the Hilbert-Huang Transform. We also propose and test a consistent spot volatility estimate in the presence of microstructure noise. The problem of assessing the validity of latent variable estimates is overcome by setting up a virtual options trading market in which competing volatility forecasts buy and sell straddle options to one another using real high frequency foreign exchange data.
Author: Jonathan H. Wright
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Rate of return
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
While it is clear that the volatility of asset returns is serially correlated, there is no general agreement as to the most appropriate parametric model for characterizing this temporal dependence. In this paper, we propose a simple way of modeling financial market volatility using high frequency data. The method avoids using a tight parametric model, by instead simply fitting a long autoregression to log-squared, squared or absolute high frequency returns. This can either be estimated by the usual time domain method, or alternatively the autoregressive coefficients can be backed out from the smoothed periodogram estimate of the spectrum of log-squared, squared or absolute returns. We show how this approach can be used to construct volatility forecasts, which compare favorably with some leading alternatives in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise.
Author: Peter Reinhard Hansen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
Handbook chapter on volatility forecasting using high-frequency data, with surveys of reduced-form volatility forecasts and model-based volatility forecasts.
Author: Constantin Roth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In the first chapter, I compare the forecasting accuracy of different high-frequency based volatility models. The empirical analysis shows that the HEAVY and the Realized GARCH generally outperform the rest of the models. The inclusion of overnight returns considerably improves volatility forecasts for stocks across all models. Furthermore, the analysis shows that models based on realized volatility benefit much less from allowing leverage effects than do models based on daily returns. In the second chapter, the cause for this observation is investigated more deeply. I explain it by documenting that realized volatility tends to be higher on down-days than on up-days and that a similar asymmetry cannot be found in squared daily returns. I show that leverage effects are present already at high return-frequencies and that these are capable of generating asymmetries in realized variance but not in squared returns. In the third chapter, a conservative test based on the adaptive lasso is applied to investigate the optimal lag structure for modeling realized volatility dynamics. The empirical analysis shows that the optimal significant lag structure is time-varying and subject to drastic regime shifts. The accuracy of the HAR model can be explained by the observation that in many cases the relevant information for prediction is included in the first 22 lags. In the fourth chapter, a wild multiplicative bootstrap is introduced for M- and GMM estimators of time series. In Monte Carlo simulations, the wild bootstrap always outperforms inference which is based on standard asymptotic theory. Moreover, in most cases the accuracy of the wild bootstrap is also higher and more stable than that of the block bootstrap whose accuracy depends heavily on the choice of the block size.
Author: Constantin A. Roth
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
In the first chapter, I compare the forecasting accuracy of different high-frequency based volatility models. The empirical analysis shows that the HEAVY and the Realized GARCH generally outperform the rest of the models. The inclusion of overnight returns considerably improves volatility forecasts for stocks across all models. Furthermore, the analysis shows that models based on realized volatility benefit much less from allowing leverage effects than do models based on daily returns. In the second chapter, the cause for this observation is investigated more deeply. I explain it by documenting that realized volatility tends to be higher on down-days than on up-days and that a similar asymmetry cannot be found in squared daily returns. I show that leverage effects are present already at high return-frequencies and that these are capable of generating asymmetries in realized variance but not in squared returns. In the third chapter, a conservative test based on the adaptive lasso is applied to investigate the optimal lag structure for modeling realized volatility dynamics. The empirical analysis shows that the optimal significant lag structure is time-varying and subject to drastic regime shifts. The accuracy of the HAR model can be explained by the observation that in many cases the relevant information for prediction is included in the first 22 lags. In the fourth chapter, a wild multiplicative bootstrap is introduced for M- and GMM estimators of time series. In Monte Carlo simulations, the wild bootstrap always outperforms inference which is based on standard asymptotic theory. Moreover, in most cases the accuracy of the wild bootstrap is also higher and more stable than that of the block bootstrap whose accuracy depends heavily on the choice of the block size.
![Exploiting high frequency data for volatility forecasting and portfolio selection : [kumulative Dissertation] PDF](https://books.google.com/books/content/images/frontcover/23tIMwEACAAJ?fife=w80-h100)
Author: Yujia Hu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 123
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Book Description
An instant may matter for the course of an entire life. It is with this idea that the present research had its inception. High frequency financial data are becoming increasingly available and this has triggered research in financial econometrics where information at high frequency can be exploited for different purposes. The most prominent example of this is the estimation and forecast of financial volatility. The research, chapter by chapter is summarized below. Chapter 1 provides empirical evidence on univariate realized volatility forecasting in relation to asymmetries present in the dynamics of both return and volatility processes. It examines leverage and volatility feedback effects among continuous and jump components of the S&P500 price and volatility dynamics, using recently developed methodologies to detect jumps and to disentangle their size from the continuous return and the continuous volatility. The research finds that jumps in return can improve forecasts of volatility, while jumps in volatility improve volatility forecasts to a lesser extent. Moreover, disentangling jump and continuous variations into signed semivariances further improves the out-of-sample performance of volatility forecasting models, with negative jump semivariance being highly more informative than positive jump semivariance. A simple autoregressive model is proposed and this is able to capture many empirical stylized facts while still remaining parsimonious in terms of number of parameters to be estimated. Chapter 2 investigates the out-of-sample performance and the economic value of multivariate forecasting models for volatility of exchange rate returns. It finds that, when the realized covariance matrix approximates the true latent covariance, a model that uses high frequency information for the correlation is more appropriate compared to alternative models that uses only low-frequency data. However multivariate FX returns standardized by the.
Author: Eugenie M. J. H. Hol
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
Author: Xiaolin Wang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Statistics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in risk management and pricing derivatives. High-frequency financial data are dynamic and affected by the microstructure noise. For the univariate case, we define the two-scale realized volatility estimator as the measure of the volatility of high-frequency financial data. Two main models for volatility, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) and Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR), are evaluated and compared for the realized volatility forecast of four major stock indices high-frequency data. We also consider the measures of jump component and heteroskedasticity of the error in the extended HAR models. For the improvement of forecasting accuracy of realized volatility, this dissertation develops hybrid forecasting models combining the GARCH and HAR family models with the machine learning methods, Support Vector Regression(SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Transformer. We construct hybrid models using the outputs of the GARCH and HAR family models. In the empirical application, we demonstrate improvements of the hybrid models for one-day ahead realized volatility forecast accuracy. The results show that the hybrid LSTM and Transformer based models provide more accurate forecasts than the other models. In the financial markets, it is well accepted that the volatilities are time-varying correlated across the indices. We construct two portfolios, the Index portfolio and the Forex portfolio. The Index portfolio contains three major stock indices, and the Forex portfolio includes three major exchange rates. We model the conditional covariances of the two portfolios with BEKK, DCC-GARCH, and Vector HAR. The hybrid models combine the estimations of traditional multivariate models and the machine learning framework. Results of the study indicate that for one-day ahead volatility matrix forecasting, these hybrid models can achieve better performance than the traditional models for the two portfolios.
Author: Norden E Huang
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981450825X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 399
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Book Description
This book is written for scientists and engineers who use HHT (Hilbert-Huang Transform) to analyze data from nonlinear and non-stationary processes. It can be treated as a HHT user manual and a source of reference for HHT applications. The book contains the basic principle and method of HHT and various application examples, ranging from the correction of satellite orbit drifting to detection of failure of highway bridges.The thirteen chapters of the first edition are based on the presentations made at a mini-symposium at the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics in 2003. Some outstanding mathematical research problems regarding HHT development are discussed in the first three chapters. The three new chapters of the second edition reflect the latest HHT development, including ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and modified EMD.The book also provides a platform for researchers to develop the HHT method further and to identify more applications.
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN: 195292703X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 95
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Book Description
Artificial intelligence (AI) has grown in presence in asset management and has revolutionized the sector in many ways. It has improved portfolio management, trading, and risk management practices by increasing efficiency, accuracy, and compliance. In particular, AI techniques help construct portfolios based on more accurate risk and return forecasts and more complex constraints. Trading algorithms use AI to devise novel trading signals and execute trades with lower transaction costs. AI also improves risk modeling and forecasting by generating insights from new data sources. Finally, robo-advisors owe a large part of their success to AI techniques. Yet the use of AI can also create new risks and challenges, such as those resulting from model opacity, complexity, and reliance on data integrity.
