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Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498346197
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498346197
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Get Book Here
Book Description
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Author: World Bank
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The world economy was on track for a strong, albeit uneven, recovery from COVID-19. However, the war in the Ukraine and supply-chain disruptions exacerbated by shutdowns in China due to the zero-COVID policy are dealing a serious blow to global recovery. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), however, is expected to perform strongly this year. Booming hydrocarbon prices have eased pressure on fiscal balances and public sector debt and has increased current account surpluses in the GCC. Despite efforts by GCC countries, diversification is still below potential. There is progress in the non-oil economy but limited success in non-oil exports. Structural reforms must be continued to help nurture a competitive private sector. There is however an excellent and timely opportunity to diversify further the economy using a green growth strategy. The extra windfall from higher oil prices to the GCC can be used to start new high-growth, green industries that would help the economies of the region grow by an extra 3-6 percent as detailed in the Focus section of this update. The special focus section also emphasizes that there is no inherent long run trade-off between emissions reductions, economic growth, and poverty alleviation. Moving away from fossil fuels towards a greener future should not be seen as a threat but as a tremendous opportunity as the costs of renewable energy have fallen dramatically in recent years. The region already has three record-breaking, low-cost auctions for solar energy supply in Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The region also has the potential to be a lead producer of green and blue hydrogen. With the right regulations, policies, and investments to support the transition, GCC countries can emerge with stronger, more sustainable economies that generate rewarding jobs for their youth while simultaneously protecting the planet. Finally, this report highlights potential pathways for GCC countries to benefit from and play a leading role in the global transition to a low-carbon economy.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498341136
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
The global and regional economic environment remains challenging. Global growth remains tepid, and although some pick-up is expected, risks are tilted to the downside. Recent volatility in financial markets is having a significant impact on some large emerging markets, highlighting the challenges that will be faced in unwinding the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policy. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East are also high.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74
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Book Description
The GCC region’s non-hydrocarbon growth momentum remains strong, driven by higher domestic demand, increased gross capital inflows, and reform implementation. Oil production – which depends on OPEC+ decisions – will be subdued in the near term. Inflation is contained and current account surpluses are high. Fiscal balances remain healthy, supported by fiscal reforms and high oil prices. The primary non-oil deficits are expected to decrease to 24 percent of GDP by 2028, with higher non-oil revenue reflecting sustained fiscal and structural reforms and contained expenditures. High global uncertainty is weighing on the outlook.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Ashraf Mishrif
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811057869
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 274
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Book Description
This volume explores the challenges to diversification in Gulf countries, which can no longer rely on profits from hydrocarbons to fund national expenditures. It elaborates on the problem of weak institutions, lack of coordination between policy makers and executors, limited investment in research and development, and a workforce that is too poorly skilled to compete in the private sector. In addition to analyzing issues in areas such as education, labor, business, and trade, the contributors underscore the importance of using global best practices to overcome fundamental weaknesses in the Gulf Cooperative Council's economic structure that limit opportunities for economic diversification. This is the second volume in Economic Diversification in the Gulf Region.
Author: Jeffrey Martini
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 083309307X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 101
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Book Description
"The cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)--defined here as the ability of the six GCC member states to act together or in parallel--has significant consequences for regional stability and U.S. interests. This report examines factors that bind and divide the six GCC states--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. Addressing the political, economic, and security dimensions of GCC relationships, the study provides a framework for understanding intra-GCC dynamics, an expectation of future developments, and policy recommendations for enhancing stability and U.S. regional interests"--Publisher's description.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is yet another shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring economies and beyond. This Update covers economies in the MENA region and does not discuss developments in Israel. It discusses the updated outlook for the region, risks, and policy recommendations.
Author: Weltbankgruppe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The economies of the GCC recovered in 2018 despite signs of weakness in the global economic outlook, reinforcing the perception that GCC economies' fortunes are still inextricably tied to oil. Global growth slowed in 2018, as trade tensions be-tween the U.S. and China escalated, and goods trade slowed markedly. However, the steady increase in oil prices until October 2018 lifted growth in the GCC economies, from an average of -0.2 percent in 2017 to 2.0 percent in 2018. Two of the region's largest economies Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as well as Oman, emerged from recession in 2018. Growth outturns were driven by higher oil production in the second half of 2018, higher capital investment made possible due to the rise in oil revenues, and higher domestic demand. Fiscal and external balances improved, also tracking oil sector performance. GCC countries' fiscal balances improved in 2018, aided by the average increase in oil prices and progress with non-oil revenue mobilization in some countries. This allowed most countries to reduce fiscal deficits while actually increasing spending in some cases. Saudi Arabia, for example was able to halve its overall fiscal deficit in 2018 while simultaneously increasing total spending by 10.8 percent. Other countries also demonstrated procyclicality in fiscal policy, as spending increased across the GCC. Saudi Arabia and the UAE implemented a 5 percent VAT in early 2018, and Bahrain followed in early 2019. Oman introduced excise taxes on tobacco products, energy drinks and soft drinks in mid-2018 and increased corporate income tax.
