Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries PDF Download
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Author: Hans Weisfeld
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455216747
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
Author: Hans Weisfeld
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455216747
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
Author: Andrew Berg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Andrew Berg
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Francis Mulenga Muma
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656249571
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: Grade1, Xiamen University (School of Economics), course: International Economics, language: English, abstract: This paper has attempted to analyze the Impact of the past current Global Economic Recession on Low Income Countries (LICs), by showing how it started, its impact on the real economy and how it spread to the LICs. Further the Paper has tried to highlight policy choices confronting the LICs in order to mitigate the crisis and avoid the recurrence of further crisis in future.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815283
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 475
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Book Description
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Author: Mr.Chris Papageorgiou
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455205362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
This paper investigates the medium- and long-term growth effects of the global financial crises on Low-Income Countries (LICs). Using several methodological approaches, including impulse response function analysis, growth spells techniques and panel regressions, we show that external demand (ED) shocks are not historically associated with sharp declines in output growth. Given existing evidence that LICs were primarily impacted by such a shock in the global financial crisis, our analysis provides some optimism on the chances that LICs will avoid a protracted period of slow growth. However, we also show that there seem to be persistent output losses associated with ED shocks in the medium-run. In terms of policy implications, our analysis provides evidence that countries with lower deficits, lower debt, more flexible exchange rate regimes, and a higher stock of international reserves are more likely to dampen the effects of an ED shock on growth.
Author: Pelin Berkmen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451874251
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
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Book Description
We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: Paul Brenton
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818223
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 217
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Book Description
Global value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries. This book examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The report reviews previous crises and what these tell us about the resilience of GVC firms to shocks. It examines the observed impact of COVID-19 on trade during the sharp global recession of 2020. It summarizes discussions with GVC firms on the impacts of, and their responses to, the COVID shock. GVCs showed surprising resilience, but the rapid recovery raised new issues with supply chains. The book then explores simulations from a global economic model of the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on developing countries and other key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, increasing trade restrictions and policy responses to global warming. The analysis shows that while there are risks associated with GVCs, especially those concentrated around key nodes and where opportunities to find alternative suppliers or buyers are limited, there are mechanisms by which GVCs maintain trade relationships during a crisis, paving the way for a strong trade-led recovery. Measures are identified that can enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries. This report finds that policies that maintain and enhance trade can contribute toward crisis management and recovery. Attempts to reshore production would make all countries worse off, including those that implement them, and could drive 52 million people, mainly in Africa, into extreme poverty. Measures to meet climate change commitments will have more profound impacts, leading to a shift away from carbon-intensive GVCs, while new opportunities for trade will arise in GVCs that are less carbon intensive.
Author: Paolo Savona
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317127811
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 349
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Book Description
Out of the debate over the effectiveness of the policy responses to the 2008 global financial crisis as well as over the innovativeness of global governance comes this collection by leading academics and practitioners who explore the dynamics of economic crisis and impact. Edited by Paolo Savona, John J. Kirton, and Chiara Oldani Global Financial Crisis: Global Impact and Solutions examines the nature of the recent crisis, its consequences in major regions and countries, the innovations in the ideas, instruments and institutions that constitute national and regional policy responses, building on the G8's response at its L'Aquila Summit. Experts from Africa, North America, Asia and Europe examine the implications of those responses for international cooperation, coordination and institutional change in global economic governance, and identify ways to reform and even replace the architecture created in the mid 20th century in order to meet the global challenges of the 21st.
