Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475591608
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
Author: Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475550936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
In this paper we first compare house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price data set covering the period 1990-2012. We find that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. We also find that they correlate with capital flows more closely than in advanced economies. We then condition the analysis on an exogenous change to a particular component of capital flows. We find that a global liquidity shock, identified by aggregating bank-to-bank cross border flows and by using the external instrumental variable approach of Stock and Watson (2012) and Mertens and Ravn (2013), has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption in emerging markets than in advanced economies. In our empirical model, holding house prices or the exchange rate constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in emerging economies.
Author: Adrian Alter
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484385691
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in residential property markets is examined as well. Looser global financial conditions are associated with greater house price synchronicity, even after controlling for bilateral financial integration. Moreover, we find that synchronicity across major cities may differ from that of their respective countries’, perhaps due to the influence of global investors on local house price dynamics. Policy choices such as macroprudential tools and exchange rate flexibility appear to be relevant for mitigating the sensitivity of domestic housing markets to the rest of the world.
Author: Mr.Hideaki Hirata
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523629
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these questions, we first estimate the global components in house prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables. We then evaluate the roles played by a variety of global shocks, including shocks to interest rates, monetary policy, productivity, credit, and uncertainty, in explaining house price fluctuations using a wide range of FAVAR models. We find that house prices are synchronized across countries, and the degree of synchronization has increased over time. Global interest rate shocks tend to have a significant negative effect on global house prices whereas global monetary policy shocks per se do not appear to have a sizeable impact. Interestingly, uncertainty shocks seem to be important in explaining fluctuations in global house prices.
Author: Ms.Nan Geng
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484367626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Author: Mitsuru Katagiri
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484379578
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
This paper investigates the developments in house price synchronization across countries by a dynamic factor model using a country- and city-level dataset, and examines what drives the synchronization. The empirical results indicate that: (i) the degree of synchronization has been rising since the 1970s, and (ii) a large heterogeneity in the degree of synchronization exists across countries and cities. A panel and cross-sectional regression analysis show that the heterogeneity of synchronization is partly accounted for by the progress in financial and trade openness. Also, the city-level analysis implies that the international synchronization is mainly driven by the city-level connectivity between large and international cities.
Author: James Lee
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 0739174576
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 219
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Book Description
Social Policy and Change in East Asia is a collection of essays from a group of indigenous East Asian social policy researchers who met bi-annually to discuss social development issues. The book’s focus is the policy responses of respective East Asian government since the 2008 financial tsunami struck the region. Together, the essays in Social Policy and Change in East Asia argue that traditional social policy approach has failed to account for the problem of economic volatility and to devise policy measures that can promote long-term stability. Avoiding a static and Eurocentric approach, the authors of this book seek to unravel the meaning of the social development approach in various policy contexts. This book supports a dynamic understanding of social policy formulation that does not neglect the problem of economic turbulence in policy and planning.
Author: Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
We quantify the importance of the Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) in domestic credit and various local asset prices and compare it with that in capital flows. Using 2000-2021 data for 76 economies and a simple methodology, we find that each respective series’ common factor and conventional US GFCy-drivers together typically explain about 30 percent of the variation in domestic credit, up to 40 percent in stock market returns, about 60 percent in house prices, and more than 75 percent in interest rates and government bond spreads. These median estimates much exceed the 25 percent for capital flows. Our findings help to put the existing literature into context and have important implications for economic and financial stability policies, notably for the usage of quantity tools (e.g., FX interventions) that impact asset prices.
Author: Edward S Robinson
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811259445
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 724
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Book Description
Since at least the Great Financial Crisis, authorities around the world have increasingly relied on macroprudential policy to help secure financial stability and complement monetary policy as an integral element of a broader macro-financial stability framework. In today's interconnected global financial system, policy actions taken by the major advanced economies can have spillovers on the rest of the world through their impact on capital flows and exchange rates, potentially generating vulnerabilities across borders. Conversely, in emerging market economies, macroprudential policy as well as foreign exchange intervention and/or capital flow management policy can help mitigate the corresponding impact. This can in turn generate spillbacks on advanced economies — spillbacks that have become more sizeable as the emerging market economies' heft in the world has grown. Yet little is known about these interactions.The contents of this book are based on a conference held on 26-28 May 2021 and jointly hosted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). It aims to contribute to existing literature on macro-financial policymaking by providing an overall conceptual framework and documenting the latest global trends and country experiences. In particular, it highlights the role of international spillovers and spillbacks, paying particular attention to emerging market economies. This book is essential reading for academics, graduate students and economic professionals. It can also serve as a handbook for policymakers at central banks, regulatory authorities and other government agencies tasked with designing and implementing macroprudential or more generally macro-financial stability policies. The book will also be of interest to researchers at international organisations.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
