Future Climate Variability and Watershed Response in Southern California PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Future Climate Variability and Watershed Response in Southern California PDF full book. Access full book title Future Climate Variability and Watershed Response in Southern California by Sonya Rita Lopez. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Sonya Rita Lopez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124
Get Book Here
Book Description
The current work focuses on assessing the impacts of future climate variability on water resources in southern California. Specifically, this dissertation work includes: (1) developing archetypal watersheds and climate scenarios to obtain regional changes to hydrology and sediment transport and (2) developing a statistical downscaling approach that considers regional climate heterogeneity (commonly neglected in downscaling methods) and using this data to drive hydrologic models. The archetypal or "representative" watersheds exemplify observed physiological features and allow us to model hydrologic trends of coastal watersheds in southern California. Future climate scenarios were developed using historical observations [1955 - 2006] and used as input to the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (EPA HSPF). In the statistical downscaling approach, the CNRM-CM3 GCM model was used to develop daily precipitation and temperature. A k-means clustering analysis was utilized and.extensive testing of predictor-predictand relationships was performed to select optimal monthly predictors. Control, no-clustering method, and clustering approaches, based on mean/total annual temperature/precipitation, annual variance and elevation, were performed for daily temperature and precipitation. The developed downscaling approaches were applied to extreme future climate scenarios A2 (high carbon dioxide emission) and B1 (low emission) and change in hydrologic fluxes for the Ballona Creek Watershed were investigated. Results from the archetypal framework indicate that precipitation variability is the primary variable in determining the magnitude of change in sediment and hydrologic fluxes. Highly vegetated systems, characterized by low annual flows typical of those found in Santa Barbara County, are expected to experience a significant loss of total annual flow and sediment flux due to rising temperatures and precipitation uncertainty. Highly urbanized (typical in Los Angeles) and moderately urbanized (typical in San Diego) watersheds, are expected to experience a significant change to storm dynamics (peak flow and storm sediments) due to climate change. The downscaling investigation shows that the optimal clustering methods to reconstruct temperature and precipitation were elevation and precipitation variance, respectively. Using the high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios, precipitation occurrence and quantity will increase throughout the year. As a result, hydrologic fluxes are expected to increase significantly in Ballona Creek, especially during dry periods. The development of the archetypal framework allows for a broad perspective of how future climate variability and regional land use patterns may influence hydrologic and sediment fluxes; changes in these fluxes may have significant implications for restoration and management of coastal wetlands, bays, and harbors. The statistical downscaling method captures daily temperature well, but further efforts may improve daily precipitation reconstructions. Results from this work have significant application in projects involving ecosystem impacts and regional sustainability studies.
Author: Sonya Rita Lopez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124
Get Book Here
Book Description
The current work focuses on assessing the impacts of future climate variability on water resources in southern California. Specifically, this dissertation work includes: (1) developing archetypal watersheds and climate scenarios to obtain regional changes to hydrology and sediment transport and (2) developing a statistical downscaling approach that considers regional climate heterogeneity (commonly neglected in downscaling methods) and using this data to drive hydrologic models. The archetypal or "representative" watersheds exemplify observed physiological features and allow us to model hydrologic trends of coastal watersheds in southern California. Future climate scenarios were developed using historical observations [1955 - 2006] and used as input to the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (EPA HSPF). In the statistical downscaling approach, the CNRM-CM3 GCM model was used to develop daily precipitation and temperature. A k-means clustering analysis was utilized and.extensive testing of predictor-predictand relationships was performed to select optimal monthly predictors. Control, no-clustering method, and clustering approaches, based on mean/total annual temperature/precipitation, annual variance and elevation, were performed for daily temperature and precipitation. The developed downscaling approaches were applied to extreme future climate scenarios A2 (high carbon dioxide emission) and B1 (low emission) and change in hydrologic fluxes for the Ballona Creek Watershed were investigated. Results from the archetypal framework indicate that precipitation variability is the primary variable in determining the magnitude of change in sediment and hydrologic fluxes. Highly vegetated systems, characterized by low annual flows typical of those found in Santa Barbara County, are expected to experience a significant loss of total annual flow and sediment flux due to rising temperatures and precipitation uncertainty. Highly urbanized (typical in Los Angeles) and moderately urbanized (typical in San Diego) watersheds, are expected to experience a significant change to storm dynamics (peak flow and storm sediments) due to climate change. The downscaling investigation shows that the optimal clustering methods to reconstruct temperature and precipitation were elevation and precipitation variance, respectively. Using the high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios, precipitation occurrence and quantity will increase throughout the year. As a result, hydrologic fluxes are expected to increase significantly in Ballona Creek, especially during dry periods. The development of the archetypal framework allows for a broad perspective of how future climate variability and regional land use patterns may influence hydrologic and sediment fluxes; changes in these fluxes may have significant implications for restoration and management of coastal wetlands, bays, and harbors. The statistical downscaling method captures daily temperature well, but further efforts may improve daily precipitation reconstructions. Results from this work have significant application in projects involving ecosystem impacts and regional sustainability studies.
Author: Fredrich Kahrl
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520953800
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 169
Get Book Here
Book Description
California is synonymous with opportunity, prosperity, and natural beauty, but climate change will certainly influence the state’s future. Changes will affect the economy, natural resources, public health, agriculture, and the livelihoods of its residents. But how big is the risk? How will Californians adapt? What will it cost? This book is the first to ask and attempt to answer these and other questions so central to the long-term health of the state. While California is undeniably unique and diverse, the challenges it faces will be mirrored everywhere. This succinct and authoritative review of the latest evidence suggests feasible changes that can sustain prosperity, mitigate adverse impacts of climate change, and stimulate research and policy dialog across the globe. The authors argue that the sooner society recognizes the reality of climate change risk, the more effectively we can begin adaptation to limit costs to present and future generations. They show that climate risk presents a new opportunity for innovation, supporting aspirations for prosperity in a lower carbon, climate altered future where we can continue economic progress without endangering the environment and ourselves.
Author: Kyongho Son
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781339218960
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 184
Get Book Here
Book Description
Climate warming results in increased spatial variability in monthly evapotranspiration, especially in the summer period. In the last chapter, I develop a strategic sampling design for collecting soil moisture and sapflux data to capture watershed ecohydrologic responses to inter-annual climate variability in a transient snow watershed. The comparison of model-based calculated hydrological similarity indicators with measured values shows that spatial patterns of field-sampled soil moisture data are similar to those of model-based estimates. However, the model fails to capture the soil moisture and sapflux dynamics in the riparian zone site, and in a site where lateral subsurface flow may not follow surface topography. Future research will reduce these errors by the use of finer-scale representations of microclimate, topography, vegetation, and soil properties in the model.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 118
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Joseph B. Knox
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520912012
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 195
Get Book Here
Book Description
California's extraordinary ecological and economic diversity has brought it prosperity, pollution, and overpopulation. These factors and the state's national and international ties make California an essential test case for the impact of global climate change—temperature increases, water shortages, more ultraviolet radiation. The scientists in this forward-looking volume give their best estimates of what the future holds. Beginning with an overview by Joseph Knox, the book discusses the greenhouse effect, the latest climate modeling capabilities, the implications of climate change for water resources, agriculture, biological ecosystems, human behavior, and energy. The warning inherent in a scenario of unchecked population growth and energy use in California applies to residents of the entire planet. The sobering conclusions related here include recommendations for research that will help us all prepare for potential climate change.
Author: Gregg Garfin
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781597264204
Category : Agriculture
Languages : en
Pages : 529
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: John M. Melack
Publisher: University of California Press
ISBN: 0520278798
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 219
Get Book Here
Book Description
The Sierra Nevada, California’s iconic mountain range, harbors thousands of remote high-elevations lakes from which water flows to sustain agriculture and cities. As climate and air quality in the region change, so do the watershed processes upon which these lakes depend. In order to understand the future of California’s ecology and natural resources, we need an integrated account of the environmental processes that underlie these aquatic systems. Synthesizing over three decades of research on the lakes and watersheds of the Sierra Nevada, this book develops an integrated account of the hydrological and biogeochemical systems that sustain them. With a focus on Emerald Lake in Sequoia National Park, the book marshals long-term limnological and ecological data to provide a detailed and synthetic account, while also highlighting the vulnerability of Sierra lakes to changes in climate and atmospheric deposition. In so doing, it lays the scientific foundations for predicting and understanding how the lakes and watersheds will respond.
Author: Norman L. Miller
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 11
Get Book Here
Book Description
There is strong evidence that the lower atmosphere has been warming at an unprecedented rate during the last 50 years, and it is expected to further increase at least for the next 100 years. Warmer air mass implies a higher capacity to hold water vapor and an increased likelihood of an acceleration of the global water cycle. This acceleration is not validated and considerable new research has gone into understanding aspects of the water cycle (e.g. Miller et al. 2003). Several significant findings on the hydrologic response to climate change can be reported. It is well understood that the observed and expected warming is related to sea level rise. In a recent seminar at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, James Hansen (Director of the Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration) stressed that a 1.25 Wm{sup -2} increase in radiative forcing will lead to an increase in the near surface air temperature by 1 C. This small increase in temperature from 2000 levels is enough to cause very significant impacts to coasts. Maury Roos (Chief Hydrologist, California Department of Water Resources) has shown that a 0.3 m rise in sea level shifts the San Francisco Bay 100-year storm surge flood event to a 10-year event. Related coastal protection costs for California based on sea level rise are shown. In addition to rising sea level, snowmelt-related streamflow represents a particular problem in California. Model studies have indicated that there will be approximately a 50% decrease in snow pack by 2100. This potential deficit must be fully recognized and plans need to be put in place well in advance. In addition, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor and result in more intense warm winter-time precipitation events that result in flooding. During anticipated high flow, reservoirs need to release water to maintain their structural integrity. California is at risk of water shortages, floods, and related ecosystem stresses. More research needs to be done to further improve our ability to forecast weather events at longer time scales. Seasonal predictions have been statistical and only recently have studies begun to use ensemble simulations and historical observations to constrain such predictions. Understanding the mechanisms of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and its local impacts remain topics of intensive research. The ability to predict extreme events and provide policy makers with this information, along with climate change and hydrologic response information, will help to guide planning to form a more resilient infrastructure in the future.
Author: F. Martin Ralph
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030289060
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 284
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book is the standard reference based on roughly 20 years of research on atmospheric rivers, emphasizing progress made on key research and applications questions and remaining knowledge gaps. The book presents the history of atmospheric-rivers research, the current state of scientific knowledge, tools, and policy-relevant (science-informed) problems that lend themselves to real-world application of the research—and how the topic fits into larger national and global contexts. This book is written by a global team of authors who have conducted and published the majority of critical research on atmospheric rivers over the past years. The book is intended to benefit practitioners in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines, including students as well as senior researchers.
Author: Susanne C. Moser
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 12
Get Book Here
Book Description
