Future Climate Scenarios for California PDF Download
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Author: David D. Ackerly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Author: David D. Ackerly
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 76
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Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 35
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Book Description
Author: Joseph B. Knox
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520912012
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 195
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Book Description
California's extraordinary ecological and economic diversity has brought it prosperity, pollution, and overpopulation. These factors and the state's national and international ties make California an essential test case for the impact of global climate change—temperature increases, water shortages, more ultraviolet radiation. The scientists in this forward-looking volume give their best estimates of what the future holds. Beginning with an overview by Joseph Knox, the book discusses the greenhouse effect, the latest climate modeling capabilities, the implications of climate change for water resources, agriculture, biological ecosystems, human behavior, and energy. The warning inherent in a scenario of unchecked population growth and energy use in California applies to residents of the entire planet. The sobering conclusions related here include recommendations for research that will help us all prepare for potential climate change.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not "predictions," but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California's climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways. In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter, with virtually all derived from North Pacific winter storms. Relatively little change in overall precipitation is projected. Climate warming has a profound influence in diminishing snow accumulations, because there is more rain and less snow, and earlier snowmelt. These snow losses increase as the warming increases, so that they are most severe under climate changes projected by the more sensitive model with the higher GHG emissions.
Author: Guido Franco
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Author: David G. Groves
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833082566
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 107
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Book Description
This report describes an approach for planning under deep uncertainty, Robust Decision Making (RDM), and demonstrates its use by the El Dorado Irrigation District (EID). Using RDM, the authors and EID tested the robustness of current long-term water management plans and more robust alternatives across more than 50 futures reflecting different assumptions about future climate, urban growth, and the availability of important new supplies.
Author: Fredrich Kahrl
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 0520953800
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 169
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Book Description
California is synonymous with opportunity, prosperity, and natural beauty, but climate change will certainly influence the state’s future. Changes will affect the economy, natural resources, public health, agriculture, and the livelihoods of its residents. But how big is the risk? How will Californians adapt? What will it cost? This book is the first to ask and attempt to answer these and other questions so central to the long-term health of the state. While California is undeniably unique and diverse, the challenges it faces will be mirrored everywhere. This succinct and authoritative review of the latest evidence suggests feasible changes that can sustain prosperity, mitigate adverse impacts of climate change, and stimulate research and policy dialog across the globe. The authors argue that the sooner society recognizes the reality of climate change risk, the more effectively we can begin adaptation to limit costs to present and future generations. They show that climate risk presents a new opportunity for innovation, supporting aspirations for prosperity in a lower carbon, climate altered future where we can continue economic progress without endangering the environment and ourselves.
Author: Joel B. Smith
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1847203124
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 305
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Book Description
The book works well as a reference for how one can examine potential climate change impacts in a subnational area. A clear strength of the work lies in the unifying framework that the climate, population, and, to a somewhat lesser degree, urbanization scenarios provide. Collectively, these appear to bracket a wide range of possible drives that will shape climate change impacts. The overall analysis takes a refreshing approach in that it does not try to fit all these elements and the subsystem impact assessments into one grand integrated model, but rather develops the assessments from a common base while allowing each to follow its own logic and scale. . . it provides a welcome overview of how one can conduct a multisystem, multisector climate impact assessment that combines natural, engineering, and social sciences in a rigorous format. Kris Wernstedt, Journal of Regional Science Climate scientists have determined that recent global temperature increases are due in large part to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Even if mitigation of these gases begins immediately, there is every reason to believe that climate change will continue to occur. Every region in the world ought to forecast, as the contributors do in this study of California (a region of broad variation and high population), how it will be affected by climate change and how it might best adapt. Models are used to estimate potential physical and biological impacts, efficient adaptations, and residual damages from climate change. The contributors cover a broad array of climate change impacts on affected market sectors (including water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, timber, and energy demand) as well as ecosystems and biodiversity. An integrated hydrologic-agriculture model is developed to explore how the region would adapt to changes in water flows. Interactions between climate impacts and population and economic growth, urbanization, and technological change are also explored. For example, the study examines how both climate change and projected land development affect the region s terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. The level of geographical detail, along with the broad applicability of the modeling, methodology, and conclusions, make this a unique and valuable reference for environmental economists, scientists, planners, and policymakers.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Author: Sonya Rita Lopez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 124
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Book Description
The current work focuses on assessing the impacts of future climate variability on water resources in southern California. Specifically, this dissertation work includes: (1) developing archetypal watersheds and climate scenarios to obtain regional changes to hydrology and sediment transport and (2) developing a statistical downscaling approach that considers regional climate heterogeneity (commonly neglected in downscaling methods) and using this data to drive hydrologic models. The archetypal or "representative" watersheds exemplify observed physiological features and allow us to model hydrologic trends of coastal watersheds in southern California. Future climate scenarios were developed using historical observations [1955 - 2006] and used as input to the Environmental Protection Agency's Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran (EPA HSPF). In the statistical downscaling approach, the CNRM-CM3 GCM model was used to develop daily precipitation and temperature. A k-means clustering analysis was utilized and.extensive testing of predictor-predictand relationships was performed to select optimal monthly predictors. Control, no-clustering method, and clustering approaches, based on mean/total annual temperature/precipitation, annual variance and elevation, were performed for daily temperature and precipitation. The developed downscaling approaches were applied to extreme future climate scenarios A2 (high carbon dioxide emission) and B1 (low emission) and change in hydrologic fluxes for the Ballona Creek Watershed were investigated. Results from the archetypal framework indicate that precipitation variability is the primary variable in determining the magnitude of change in sediment and hydrologic fluxes. Highly vegetated systems, characterized by low annual flows typical of those found in Santa Barbara County, are expected to experience a significant loss of total annual flow and sediment flux due to rising temperatures and precipitation uncertainty. Highly urbanized (typical in Los Angeles) and moderately urbanized (typical in San Diego) watersheds, are expected to experience a significant change to storm dynamics (peak flow and storm sediments) due to climate change. The downscaling investigation shows that the optimal clustering methods to reconstruct temperature and precipitation were elevation and precipitation variance, respectively. Using the high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios, precipitation occurrence and quantity will increase throughout the year. As a result, hydrologic fluxes are expected to increase significantly in Ballona Creek, especially during dry periods. The development of the archetypal framework allows for a broad perspective of how future climate variability and regional land use patterns may influence hydrologic and sediment fluxes; changes in these fluxes may have significant implications for restoration and management of coastal wetlands, bays, and harbors. The statistical downscaling method captures daily temperature well, but further efforts may improve daily precipitation reconstructions. Results from this work have significant application in projects involving ecosystem impacts and regional sustainability studies.
