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Author: Dr, Jack Rasmus
Publisher: SCB Distributors
ISBN: 0986076937
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
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Book Description
Just as contemporary economics failed to predict the 2008-09 crash, and over-estimated the subsequent brief recovery that followed, economists today are again failing to accurately forecast the slowing global economic growth, the growing fragility, and therefore rising instability in the global economy. This book offers a new approach to explaining why mainstream economic analyses have repeatedly failed and why fiscal and monetary policies have been incapable of producing a sustained recovery. Expanding upon the early contributions of Keynes, Minsky and others, it offers an alternative explanation why the global economy is slowing long term and becoming more unstable, why policies to date have largely failed, and why the next crisis may therefore prove even worse than that of 2008- 09. Systemic fragility is rooted in 9 key empirical trends: slowing real investment; a drift toward deflation; money, credit and liquidity explosion; rising levels of global debt; a shift to speculative financial investing; the restructuring of financial markets to reward capital incomes; the restricting of labor markets to lower wage incomes; the failure of Central Bank monetary policies; and the ineffectiveness of fiscal policies. It results from financial, consumer, and government balance sheet fragilities exacerbating each other -- creating a massive centripetal force disaggregating and tearing apart the whole, untameable by either fiscal or monetary means. This book clarifies how the price system in general, and financial asset prices in particular, transform into fundamentally destabilizing forces under conditions of systemic fragility. It explains why the global system has in recent decades become dependent upon, and even addicted to, massive liquidity injections, and how fiscal policies have been counterproductive, exacerbating fragility and instability. Policymakers’ failure to come to grips with how fundamental changes in the structure of the 21st century global capitalist economy—in particular in financial and labor market structures—make the global economy more systemically fragile can only propel it toward deeper instability and crises.
Author: Dr, Jack Rasmus
Publisher: SCB Distributors
ISBN: 0986076937
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 200
Get Book Here
Book Description
Just as contemporary economics failed to predict the 2008-09 crash, and over-estimated the subsequent brief recovery that followed, economists today are again failing to accurately forecast the slowing global economic growth, the growing fragility, and therefore rising instability in the global economy. This book offers a new approach to explaining why mainstream economic analyses have repeatedly failed and why fiscal and monetary policies have been incapable of producing a sustained recovery. Expanding upon the early contributions of Keynes, Minsky and others, it offers an alternative explanation why the global economy is slowing long term and becoming more unstable, why policies to date have largely failed, and why the next crisis may therefore prove even worse than that of 2008- 09. Systemic fragility is rooted in 9 key empirical trends: slowing real investment; a drift toward deflation; money, credit and liquidity explosion; rising levels of global debt; a shift to speculative financial investing; the restructuring of financial markets to reward capital incomes; the restricting of labor markets to lower wage incomes; the failure of Central Bank monetary policies; and the ineffectiveness of fiscal policies. It results from financial, consumer, and government balance sheet fragilities exacerbating each other -- creating a massive centripetal force disaggregating and tearing apart the whole, untameable by either fiscal or monetary means. This book clarifies how the price system in general, and financial asset prices in particular, transform into fundamentally destabilizing forces under conditions of systemic fragility. It explains why the global system has in recent decades become dependent upon, and even addicted to, massive liquidity injections, and how fiscal policies have been counterproductive, exacerbating fragility and instability. Policymakers’ failure to come to grips with how fundamental changes in the structure of the 21st century global capitalist economy—in particular in financial and labor market structures—make the global economy more systemically fragile can only propel it toward deeper instability and crises.
Author: A. Nesvetailova
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230592309
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 202
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Book Description
Fragile Finance examines financial crisis in the era of global credit. Drawing on the work of Hyman Minsky, the book discusses the global financial system over the past decade, suggesting that financial fragility stems from an explosive combination of financial innovation, over-borrowing, and progressive illiquidity of financial structures.
Author: Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451927533
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26
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Book Description
This paper tests empirically the proposition that bank fragility is determined by bank-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions and potential contagion effects. The methodology allows for the variables that determine bank failure to differ from those that influence banks’ time to failure (or survival rate). Based on the indicators of fragility of individual banks, we construct an index of fragility for the banking system. The framework is applied to the Mexican financial crisis beginning in 1994. In the case of Mexico, bank-specific variables as well as contagion effects explain the likelihood of bank failure, while macroeconomic variables largely determine the timing of failure.
Author: Moritz Schularick
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022681694X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 318
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Book Description
An authoritative guide to the new economics of our crisis-filled century. Published in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The 2008 financial crisis was a seismic event that laid bare how financial institutions’ instabilities can have devastating effects on societies and economies. COVID-19 brought similar financial devastation at the beginning of 2020 and once more massive interventions by central banks were needed to heed off the collapse of the financial system. All of which begs the question: why is our financial system so fragile and vulnerable that it needs government support so often? For a generation of economists who have risen to prominence since 2008, these events have defined not only how they view financial instability, but financial markets more broadly. Leveraged brings together these voices to take stock of what we have learned about the costs and causes of financial fragility and to offer a new canonical framework for understanding it. Their message: the origins of financial instability in modern economies run deeper than the technical debates around banking regulation, countercyclical capital buffers, or living wills for financial institutions. Leveraged offers a fundamentally new picture of how financial institutions and societies coexist, for better or worse. The essays here mark a new starting point for research in financial economics. As we muddle through the effects of a second financial crisis in this young century, Leveraged provides a road map and a research agenda for the future.
Author: Charles W. Calomiris
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691168350
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 584
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Book Description
Why stable banking systems are so rare Why are banking systems unstable in so many countries—but not in others? The United States has had twelve systemic banking crises since 1840, while Canada has had none. The banking systems of Mexico and Brazil have not only been crisis prone but have provided miniscule amounts of credit to business enterprises and households. Analyzing the political and banking history of the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil through several centuries, Fragile by Design demonstrates that chronic banking crises and scarce credit are not accidents. Calomiris and Haber combine political history and economics to examine how coalitions of politicians, bankers, and other interest groups form, why they endure, and how they generate policies that determine who gets to be a banker, who has access to credit, and who pays for bank bailouts and rescues. Fragile by Design is a revealing exploration of the ways that politics inevitably intrudes into bank regulation.
Author: Mario Draghi
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 9781898128687
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
Discussions of the role of derivatives and their risks, as well as discussions of financial risks in general, often fail to distinguish between risks that are taken consciously and ones that are not. To understand the breeding conditions for financial crises, the prime source of concern is not risk per se, but the unintended, or unanticipated accumulation of risks by individuals, institutions or governments including the concealing of risks from stakeholders and overseers of those entities. This report, the fourth in the ICMB/CEPR series of Geneva Reports on the World Economy, analyses specific situations in which significant unanticipated and unintended financial risks can accumulate. The focus is, in particular, on the implicit guarantees that governments extend to banks and other financial institutions, and which may result in the accumulation, often unrecognised from the viewpoint of the government, of unanticipated risks in the balance sheet of the public sector. that a government's exposure to risk arising from a guarantee is non-linear. For instance, in the case of a government which guarantees the liabilities of the banking system, the additional liability transferred onto the government's balance sheet by a 10% shock to the capital of firms is larger the lower that capital is to start with. Recognising this non-linearity in the transmission of risk exposures is essential to the reduction of the accumulation of unanticipated risks on the government's balance sheet. Analyses of recent international financial crises recognise that the implicit guarantees governments extend to banks and corporations create the potential to greatly weaken their balance sheets. exist, rather than on measurement of the exposures they create. This report offers just such a framework for measuring the extent of a government's exposure to risk and how that exposure changes over time. The report also discusses ideas on how risk exposures can be controlled, hedged and transferred through the use of derivatives, swap contracts, and other contractual agreements.
Author: Alexandre Lamfalussy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
This book contains proceedings of the International Conference organized by the International Triffin Foundation in September 2000. As a result of a two-day session of intense discussion among experts, this book presents a study programme, a proposal for action, to manage and to regulate international financial relations.The future of the EMU raises numerous questions. The tripolar regime -- euro, dollar, yen -- which is now emerging, foreshadows a period of cyclical instability. Such an evolution represents a major change in the international monetary system. A glance at the past indicates that such movements cause doubt and disturbances.Prevention of forthcoming crises seems then to be essential. But if this raises a serious challenge, it does not mean that we are faced with a brand new problem. Several visionary economists have underlined dangers and opportunities inherent within a shift in any monetary regime. Robert Triffin is one of the leading economists on questions concerning the monetary and financial systems. His work, because it does not purport to provide definitive answers, deserves to be reexamined on current uncertainties.The merit of the present work consists in attempting to draw on Triffin's intellectual legacy to deal with current and future problems.
Author: Sunanda Sen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349138010
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273
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Book Description
The present volume articulates a state of concern with the destabilising and the growth retarding effects of current world finance relations. Emphasis laid in this volume on finance is justified, not only in terms of its dominance over real activities in the world economy but also with its influence on the pace of economic reforms in the debt-ridden countries. A large number of essays in this volume deals with the recent pattern of capital flows in the world economy. The latter has been of a high priority in the agenda for research in economics in recent times, especially with tendencies for financial fragility in the major financial markets and the enforcing of the structural adjustment programmes in the developing countries as a part of loan conditionalities. The volume provides a rich analysis of contemporary international finance relations, with individual chapters contributed by reputed economists who have made significant contributions to the literature.
Author: Richard Portes
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521347891
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
This volume, based on conference organized by the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in association with the Centre for Economic Policy Research, brings together a leading group of economists, financial theorists, policy-makers and bankers to analyse threats to international financial stability. The potential fragility of the international financial and monetary system has been highlighted by recent international debt crises as well as by rapid financial innovation and important regulatory changes. The book examines the anatomy and propagation of international financial crises, assesses the adequacy of current regulatory and supervisory practices, and suggests measures that would help to avoid or contain financial crises. the papers, written by academics, are discussed by leading bank supervisors and regulators and by central and private bankers. The volume offers a unique combination of analytical rigour and practical relevance and will interest all those concerned with the stability of the international financial system.
Author: Dunhong Jin
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513519492
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
How to prevent runs on open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces redemptions during stress periods. The positive impact of alternative pricing rules on fund flows reverses in calm periods when costs associated with higher tracking error dominate the pricing effect.
