Forecasting conditional volatility of returns by using the relationship among returns, trading volume, and open interest in commodity futures markets PDF Download
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Author: Sang-Hak Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Sang-Hak Lee
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Brajesh Kumar
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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This study investigates the relationship between futures trading activity and spot market volatility for agricultural, metal, precious metals and energy commodities in Indian commodity derivatives market. This article contributes to the debate whether the futures trading in Indian commodity futures market stabilizes or destabilizes spot market. We explore this issue by modeling contemporaneous as well as dynamic relationship between spot volatility and futures trading activity including trading volume (speculative/day trading) and open interest (hedging). Following Bessembinder and Senguin (1992), we examine contemporaneous relationship through augmented GARCH model in which spot volatility is modeled as GARCH (1,1) process and trading activity is used as explanatory variable. We also decompose futures trading volume and open interest series into expected and unexpected component. The lead-lag relationship between spot price volatility and futures trading volume and open interest is investigated through VAR model. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function are used to understand the dynamic relationship between these variables. We found that both expected and unexpected futures trading volume affects contemporaneous spot volatility positively. However, in case of agricultural commodities only unexpected volume affects the contemporaneous spot volatility. Granger causality tests, forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response function confirm that the lagged unexpected volatility causes spot price volatility for all commodities. The effect of speculative/day trading activity measured by trading volume on spot market volatility is positive. However, hedging activity measured by open interest does not show significant effect on spot market volatility. We do not find any effect of spot volatility on futures trading activity for most of the commodities.
Author: Hendrik Bessembinder
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Futures
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3668659958
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Project Report from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, , course: Ph. D, language: English, abstract: Every modern economy is based on a sound financial system and acts as a monetary channel for productive purpose with effecting economic growth. It encourages saving habit by throwing open and plethora of instrument avenues suiting to the individuals requirements, mobilizing savings from households and other segments and allocating savings into productive usage such as trade, commerce, manufacture etc. Thus a financial system can also be understood as institutional arrangements, through which financial surpluses are mobilized from the units generating surplus income and transferring them to the others in need of them. In nutshell, financial market, financial assets, financial services and financial institutions constitute the financial system. The activities include exchange and holding of financial assets or instruments of different kinds of financial institutions, banks and other intermediaries of the market. Financial markets provide channels for allocation of savings to investment and provide variety of assets to savers in various forms in which the investors can park their funds. At the same time, financial market is one that integral part of the financial system which makes significant contribution to the countries’ economic development. It establishes a link between the demand and supply of long-term capital funds. The economic strength of a country depends squarely on the state of financial market, apart from the productive potential of the country. The efficient allocation of fund by the capital market depends on the state of capital market. All the countries therefore focus more on the functioning of the capital market. Indian financial market has faced many challenges in the process of effecting more efficient allocation and mobilization of capital. It has attained a remarkable degree of growth in the last decade and in continuing to achieve the same in current decade also. Opening up of the economy and adoption of the liberalized economic policies have driven our economy more towards the free market. Over the last few years, financial markets, more specifically the security market were experiencing a lot of structural and regulatory changes. The major constituents of financial market are money market and the capital market catering to the type of capital requirements.
Author: Hendrik Bessembinder
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Futures
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Author: Rahuldeb Das
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the relationship between the spot price and the level of futures trading in the Indian commodity market using Granger causality test. For a better explanation of causality, the procedure of forecast error variance decomposition has been used. The study indicates that for most of the commodities there is a causal relationship between unexpected futures trading volume and spot price volatility. Furthermore, there is a weak form of causality between spot price volatility and unexpected futures open interest.
Author: Daniel Giamouridis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The relationship between stock market returns and volatilities has been extensively investigated in the academic literature. In this paper the relationship between Commodity Returns and volatility is investigated for the first time. We shared the feeling that the relationship between return and volatility in the commodity markets is the inverse of that observed in the stock markets. If that hypothesis proves to be true and if commodity markets returns are negatively correlated with the returns of traditional financial assets, the introduction of commodities in investment portfolios would result in the diversification of the volatility exposure. This will allow Fund Managers to hedge investment portfolios with commodities, thus avoiding the use of more complicated instruments, such as options. We carry out the exploratory tests of Black [1976], to test the hypothesis with the unconditional variance, as well as the tests of Nelson [1991], Zakoian [1990] and Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle [1993], to test the hypothesis on the conditional variance. The estimation of the models yields statistically significant asymmetric terms only for the conditional variance and the initial hypothesis that the conditional variance responds asymmetrically to past information is not rejected.
Author: Pulkit Gupta
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The aim of this paper is to introduce several volatility models and use these models to predict the conditional variance of the rate of return in Indian commodity future market. This paper chooses the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), E-GARCH, GJRGARCH and APARCH models to analyze the rate of return and considers using three different distributions on error terms: normal distribution, Student's t distribution and skewed t distribution. So this paper mainly captures the forecasting performance with volatility models under different error distributions. Finally, by using AIC, the best model is chosen to predict the conditional variance. Forecasting performance is checked by using Mean Square Error (MSE), Heteroskedasticity Adjusted Squared Error (HASE), Logarithmic Error (LE) and Mincer Zarnowitz Regression. This paper selects three Generic 1st Future Contracts traded on MCX (Multi-Commodity Exchange of India): Aluminum, Copper and Zinc. It is concluded that long memory is an important characteristic of the Aluminum, Copper and Zinc futures volatility returns and should be considered when addressing investment decisions.
Author: Wan Mansor Mahmood
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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In this paper, the relationship between returns and trading volume is examined for four futures contracts for the period January 1, 1986 to April 30, 1997. Both linear and nonlinear dependence are examined. The study first employs linear causality tests and find that futures returns and volume have no predictive power for one another. However, since the series show evidence of nonlinear dependence, the GARCH model is then employed. The results show a sifnificant relationship between the returns and volume for only two of the four currencies (i.e Japanese yen and Swiss franc) tested. Moveover, when the series are divided into subsamples, the results of the GARCH tests point to a significant relationship for all currency futures regarding the prediction of returns from volume traded, although mainly in the second period. The results of this study suggest that trading volume can provide importat information in return prediction using a nonlinear model but that the series do not exihibit homogenous behaviour over the entire sample period. Further, the results support the sequential information arrival hypothesis ounly in few cases.
Author: Kim Hock See
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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