Forecasting Adoption of Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicles Using the GHK Simulator and Bayes Estimates of a Multinomial Probit Model PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Forecasting Adoption of Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicles Using the GHK Simulator and Bayes Estimates of a Multinomial Probit Model PDF full book. Access full book title Forecasting Adoption of Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicles Using the GHK Simulator and Bayes Estimates of a Multinomial Probit Model by Ricardo Daziano. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Ricardo Daziano
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this paper we use Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model with fully flexible substitution patterns to forecast consumer response to ultra-low-emission vehicles. In this empirical application of the probit Gibbs sampler, we use stated-preference data on vehicle choice from a Germany-wide survey of potential light-duty-vehicle buyers using computer-assisted personal interviewing. We show that Bayesian estimation of a multinomial probit model with a full covariance matrix is feasible for this medium-scale problem. Using the posterior distribution of the parameters of the vehicle choice model as well as the GHK simulator we derive the choice probabilities of the different alternatives. We first show that the Bayes point estimates of the market shares reproduce the observed values. Then, we define a base scenario of vehicle attributes that aims at representing an average of the current vehicle choice situation in Germany. Consumer response to qualitative changes in the base scenario is subsequently studied. In particular, we analyze the effect of increasing the network of service stations for charging electric vehicles as well as for refueling hydrogen. The result is the posterior distribution of the choice probabilities that represent adoption of the energy-efficient technologies.
Author: Ricardo Daziano
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
In this paper we use Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model with fully flexible substitution patterns to forecast consumer response to ultra-low-emission vehicles. In this empirical application of the probit Gibbs sampler, we use stated-preference data on vehicle choice from a Germany-wide survey of potential light-duty-vehicle buyers using computer-assisted personal interviewing. We show that Bayesian estimation of a multinomial probit model with a full covariance matrix is feasible for this medium-scale problem. Using the posterior distribution of the parameters of the vehicle choice model as well as the GHK simulator we derive the choice probabilities of the different alternatives. We first show that the Bayes point estimates of the market shares reproduce the observed values. Then, we define a base scenario of vehicle attributes that aims at representing an average of the current vehicle choice situation in Germany. Consumer response to qualitative changes in the base scenario is subsequently studied. In particular, we analyze the effect of increasing the network of service stations for charging electric vehicles as well as for refueling hydrogen. The result is the posterior distribution of the choice probabilities that represent adoption of the energy-efficient technologies.
Author: Scott Walbridge
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811910650
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 686
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book comprises the proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Canadian Society of Civil Engineering 2021. The contents of this volume focus on specialty conferences in construction, environmental, hydrotechnical, materials, structures, transportation engineering, etc. This volume will prove a valuable resource for those in academia and industry.
Author: Francis Vanek
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071800131
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 705
Get Book Here
Book Description
Engineer and implement sustainable transportation solutions Featuring in-depth coverage of passenger and freight transportation, this comprehensive resource discusses contemporary transportation systems and options for improving their sustainability. The book addresses vehicle and infrastructure design, economics, environmental concerns, energy security, and alternative energy sources and platforms. Worked-out examples, case studies, illustrations, equations, and end-of-chapter problems are also included in this practical guide. Sustainable Transportation Systems Engineering covers: Background on energy security and climate change Systems analysis tools and techniques Individual choices and transportation demand Transportation systems and vehicle design Physical design of transportation infrastructure Congestion mitigation in urban passenger transportation Role of intelligent transportation systems Public transportation and multimodal solutions Personal mobility and accessibility Intercity passenger transportation Freight transportation function and current trends Freight modal and supply chain management approaches Spatial and geographic aspects of freight transportation Alternative fuels and platforms Electricity and hydrogen as alternative fuels Bioenergy resources and systems Transportation security and planning for extreme weather events PRAISE FOR SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS ENGINEERING: "This book addresses one of the great challenges of the 21st century--how to transform our resource-intensive passenger and freight transportation system into a set of low-carbon, economically efficient, and socially equitable set of services." -- Dan Sperling, Professor and Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, author of Two Billion Cars: Driving toward Sustainability "...provides a rich tool kit for students of sustainable transportation, embracing a systems approach. The authors aptly blend engineering, economics, and environmental impact analysis approaches." -- Susan Shaheen, Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Co-Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley
Author: Kenneth Train
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521766559
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.
Author: Fernando Bouthelier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Jonn Axsen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer behavior
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
This study estimated dynamic behavioural parameters for an energy-economy model (called CIMS) using discrete choice modelling techniques, focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) . An online survey collected stated preference (SP) data from Canadian and Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions. Revealed preference (RP) data was collected by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases. SP and RP data were combined in a 'joint' multinomial logit modelling technique, yielding choice models that were more realistic and useful than models estimated from SP or RP data alone. Dynamic behavioural parameters were estimated from the joint choice models and integrated into CIMS, significantly altering HEV adoption forecasts. Policy simulations with the improved model demonstrate the potential efficiencies of policies that induce technological change by reducing a technology's non-financial costs (e.g. vehicle emissions standard), as opposed to targeting capital costs (e.g. subsidies) or fuel costs (e.g. gasoline tax).
Author: William H. Greene
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139485954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 383
Get Book Here
Book Description
It is increasingly common for analysts to seek out the opinions of individuals and organizations using attitudinal scales such as degree of satisfaction or importance attached to an issue. Examples include levels of obesity, seriousness of a health condition, attitudes towards service levels, opinions on products, voting intentions, and the degree of clarity of contracts. Ordered choice models provide a relevant methodology for capturing the sources of influence that explain the choice made amongst a set of ordered alternatives. The methods have evolved to a level of sophistication that can allow for heterogeneity in the threshold parameters, in the explanatory variables (through random parameters), and in the decomposition of the residual variance. This book brings together contributions in ordered choice modeling from a number of disciplines, synthesizing developments over the last fifty years, and suggests useful extensions to account for the wide range of sources of influence on choice.
Author: A. Colin Cameron
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139444867
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1058
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides the most comprehensive treatment to date of microeconometrics, the analysis of individual-level data on the economic behavior of individuals or firms using regression methods for cross section and panel data. The book is oriented to the practitioner. A basic understanding of the linear regression model with matrix algebra is assumed. The text can be used for a microeconometrics course, typically a second-year economics PhD course; for data-oriented applied microeconometrics field courses; and as a reference work for graduate students and applied researchers who wish to fill in gaps in their toolkit. Distinguishing features of the book include emphasis on nonlinear models and robust inference, simulation-based estimation, and problems of complex survey data. The book makes frequent use of numerical examples based on generated data to illustrate the key models and methods. More substantially, it systematically integrates into the text empirical illustrations based on seven large and exceptionally rich data sets.
Author: Christian Gourieroux
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316583333
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 384
Get Book Here
Book Description
This textbook introduces students progressively to various aspects of qualitative models and assumes a knowledge of basic principles of statistics and econometrics. Inferring qualitative characteristics of data on socioeconomic class, education, employment status, and the like - given their discrete nature - requires an entirely different set of tools from those applied to purely quantitative data. Written in accessible language and offering cogent examples, students are given valuable means to gauge real-world economic phenomena. After the introduction, early chapters present models with endogenous qualitative variables, examining dichotomous models, model specification, estimation methods, descriptive usage, and qualitative panel data. Professor Gourieroux also looks at Tobit models, in which the exogenous variable is sometimes qualitative and sometimes quantitative, and changing-regime models, in which the dependent variable is qualitative but expressed in quantitative terms. The final two chapters describe models which explain variables assumed by discrete or continuous positive variables.
Author: Robert J. Johnston
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 940179930X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 583
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive review of environmental benefit transfer methods, issues and challenges, covering topics relevant to researchers and practitioners. Early chapters provide accessible introductory materials suitable for non-economists. These chapters also detail how benefit transfer is used within the policy process. Later chapters cover more advanced topics suited to valuation researchers, graduate students and those with similar knowledge of economic and statistical theory and methods. This book provides the most complete coverage of environmental benefit transfer methods available in a single location. The book targets a wide audience, including undergraduate and graduate students, practitioners in economics and other disciplines looking for a one-stop handbook covering benefit transfer topics and those who wish to apply or evaluate benefit transfer methods. It is designed for those both with and without training in economics
