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Author: Mr.Dirk Muir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475534345
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.
Author: Mr.Dirk Muir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475534345
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
Get Book
Book Description
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.
Author: Mr.Dirk Muir
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475560478
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19
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Book Description
With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498382452
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Author: Ms.Pritha Mitra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484305892
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
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Book Description
Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolidation needs. Durable fiscal adjustment can support economic confidence and rebuild buffers but what is its overall impact on growth? How effective are revenue versus spending instruments? Does current or capital spending have a larger impact? Applying a structural vector autoregressive model, this paper finds that Ukraine’s near-term revenue and spending multipliers are well below one. In the medium-term, the revenue multiplier becomes insignificant (with a wide confidence interval) and the spending multiplier strengthens. Capital and current spending have a similar effect on growth but the capital multiplier remains significant for longer. These results suggest near-term consolidation based on a combination of revenue and spending measures would have a modest impact on growth. At the same time, medium-term policies could minimize the adverse consequences of consolidation on growth by offsetting some current spending cuts with increased capital spending. Given the severe challenges facing the Ukrainian economy, it is important that policymakers apply these results in conjunction with broader considerations such as public debt sustainability, investor confidence, credibility of government policies, and public spending efficiency. Consequently, it may be necessary to rely more on current spending cuts over other types of consolidation measures even though multiplier estimates suggest a more diverse combination of measures.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475584172
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 82
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Book Description
Bulgaria did not have any exchange rate crisis, international bailout, bank intervention, or build-up of public debt. This attests to the strength of the policy framework and policy implementation. The fiscal adjustment achieved so far should be preserved, but improving the composition of the budget would support growth. The financial system is stable with high buffers, but the low growth environment poses challenges. Executive Directors suggest the need for some structural reforms.
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498357997
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. For these countries, we propose a simple method—dubbed the “bucket approach”—to come up with reasonable multiplier estimates. The approach bunches countries into groups (or “buckets”) with similar multiplier values, based on their characteristics. It also takes into account the effect of some temporary factors, such as the state of the business cycle.
Author: Nicoletta Batini
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498322433
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Author: Iana Paliova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475571682
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
This paper focuses on EU structural and cohesion funds assistance to Bulgaria during the 2007–13 program period. Initial weaknesses resulted in a low absorption rate, which was mitigated by increasing advance payments; applying electronic application and reporting procedures; simplifying and unifying tender processes; and strengthening the role of international financial institutions and banks in project preparation, evaluation and monitoring. The possible impact on growth and potential output is briefly discussed, while the risks of improper absorption are acknowledged. Valuable lessons have been learned, but it is recommended that additional steps be taken for the next program period 2014–20.
Author: Richard Hemming
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author: Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484361695
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.
