Expectations, Learning and the Costs of Disinflation PDF Download
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Author: Antulio Bomfim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Author: Antulio Bomfim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Antulio N. Bomfim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The macroeconomic costs of disinflation are considered for the United States in a rational expectations macroeconometric model with sticky prices and imperfect information regarding monetary policy objectives. The analysis centers on simulation experiments using the Board's new quarterly macroeconometric model, FRB/US, within which are nested both expectations formation that is 'rational' (i.e., model consistent) and 'restricted-information rational' (i.e., where the information set is restricted to that captured by a small-scale VAR model). We characterize monetary policy as being governed by rules. Disinflations are represented by changes in the target inflation rate of a interest-rate reaction function. Two kinds of rules are considered: a version of the Taylor rule and the other being a more aggressive and richer specification estimated using data for the last 15 years. We assume agents are not fully cognizant of changes in the Fed's inflation target and must instead adjust their perceptions of the target according to a linear updating rule. Simulation results for sacrifice ratios are compared with results from other models and with econometric results and calculations reported in the literature.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Ben S. Bernanke
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226044734
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 469
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Book Description
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Author: Bankim; Masson Chadha (Paul; Meredith, Guy)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : fr
Pages :
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Author: Carlos Balseyro Rodriguez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : es
Pages : 21
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Book Description
Author: KENNETH J. KOPECKY
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 620
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Book Description
Author: Alan A. Rabin
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780824707811
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1848
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Book Description
Examines the politics of economic policy, focusing on forecasting, inflation, interest rates, market expectations, financial crises, disruptions in global markets, and tax policy, as well as state and local government budgeting, financial management, and policy initiatives for development and growth.
Author: Stanley Fischer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Deflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Estimates of the cost of disinflation made before the recent reduction in the inflation rate varied widely. Estimates were made in terms of the sacrifice ratio -- the percentage points of GNP at an annual rate lost per percentage point reduction in the inflation rate. At one extreme it was argued thata resolute and credible monetary policy could reduce inflation virtually costlessly. At the other extreme were estimates that the sacrifice ratio exceeded 10. Costless immediate disinflation is not possible in an economy with long-term labor contracts. This paper sets out a simple contracting model of wage and output determination and uses it to calculate sacrifice ratios for a disinflation program, under the assumption that announced policy changes are immediately believed. Under this assumption disinflation with a structure of labor contracts like those of the United States would be less costly than typically estimated. The model is then modified to allow for the slow adjustment of expectations of policy to actual policy; sacrifice ratios then approach the ranges typically estimated. The sacrifice ratio for the current disinflation is calculated in the last section: the current disinflation was somewhat more rapid and less costly than previous estimates suggested. The calculated sacrifice ratio is consistent with the predictions of the simple contracting model.
Author: Jack Rabin
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 0585425515
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1009
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Book Description
This handbook explains the development and implementation of monetary policy. It examines theories and issues related to the preservation of economic activity and explores why the preservation of economic stability is a principal goal of public policy.
