Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals PDF full book. Access full book title Excess Volatility and the Asset-Pricing Exchange Rate Model with Unobservable Fundamentals by Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849222
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess exchange rate volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model in an efficient market.
Author: Mr.Lorenzo Giorgianni
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451849222
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 21
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess exchange rate volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model in an efficient market.
Author: Leonardo Bartolini
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Lorenzo Giorgianni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 20
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: John Peter Hussman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 292
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Willem H. Buiter
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commerce
Languages : en
Pages : 68
Get Book Here
Book Description
The recent theory of exchange rate dynamics within a target zone holds that exchange rates under a currency bard are less responsive to fundamental shocks than exchange rates under a free float, provided that the intervention rules of the Central Bank(s) are common knowledge. These results are derived after having assumed a priori that excess volatility due to rational bubbles does not occur in the foreign exchange market. In this paper we consider instead a setup in which the existence of speculative behavior is a datum the Central Bank has to deal with. We show that the defense of the target zone in the presence of bubbles is viable if the Central Bank accommodates speculative attacks when the latter are consistent with the survival of the target zone itself and expectations are self-fulfilling. These results hold for a large class of exogenous and fundamental-dependent bubble processes. We show that the instantaneous volatility of exchange rates within a bard is not necessarily less than the volatility under free float and analyze the implications for interest rate differential dynamics.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author: Emmanuel Farhi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Disasters
Languages : en
Pages : 70
Get Book Here
Book Description
We propose a new model of exchange rates, based on the hypothesis that the possibility of rare but extreme disasters is an important determinant of risk premia in asset markets. The probability of world disasters as well as each country's exposure to these events is time-varying. This creates joint fluctuations in exchange rates, interest rates, options, and stock markets. The model accounts for a series of major puzzles in exchange rates: excess volatility and exchange rate disconnect, forward premium puzzle and large excess returns of the carry trade, and comovements between stocks and exchange rates. It also makes empirically successful signature predictions regarding the link between exchange rates and telltale signs of disaster risk in currency options.
Author: Daron Acemoglu
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780226002026
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Get Book Here
Book Description
The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.
Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523165
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 65
Get Book Here
Book Description
We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Author: Vikash Yadav
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135973717
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book analyzes the evolution and impact of the concept of risk on processes of transnational banking and financial market regulation, as well as the externalities generated by speculative financial activity in developing and emerging market economies. The author provides an alternative theory for the study of international financial market regu
