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Author: Lloyd J. Mercer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Distribution (Probability theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Lloyd J. Mercer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Distribution (Probability theory)
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Ginés de Rus
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1839103752
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
This thoroughly updated second edition incorporates key ideas and discussions on issues such as wider economic impacts, the treatment of risk, and the importance of institutional arrangements in ensuring the correct use of technique. Ginés de Rus considers whether public decisions, such as investing in high-speed rail links, privatizing a public enterprise or protecting a natural area, may improve social welfare.
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111994578X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 245
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Book Description
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Author: A. Allan Schmid
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429718608
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 348
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Book Description
Choice is the name of the game. Government sets the size of the public budget and decides which public projects it will invest in and which transfers and regulations it will implement. To do this systematically the government must have a procedure that displays the consequences of the alternatives. This book is an exposition of benefit-cost analysis (BCA), an analytic framework for organizing thoughts, listing the pros and cons of alternatives, and determining values for all relevant factors so that the alternatives can be ranked. A major question illuminated by this text is whether the results of such an analysis can instruct government--in the sense of telling it what it must do to avoid being labelled stupid, corrupt, irrational, and/or inefficient. How and when, we will ask, can the benefit-cost analyst label a particular governmental investment, policy, or regulation as political (in the pejorative sense) as opposed to economic (in the laudatory sense of being economically justified)? This book will argue that BCA is much like a consumer information system. Consumer information neither tells consumers what to do nor tells them what they should want. However, it does tell them which products will perform in selected ways and at what costs. And this information, together with the independently arrived at wants, helps the consumer make intelligent choices.
Author: M.W Merkhofer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9400946988
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 344
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Book Description
Economists, decision analysts, management scientists, and others have long argued that government should take a more scientific approach to decision making. Pointing to various theories for prescribing and rational izing choices, they have maintained that social goals could be achieved more effectively and at lower costs if government decisions were routinely subjected to analysis. Now, government policy makers are putting decision science to the test. Recent government actions encourage and in some cases require government decisions to be evaluated using formally defined principles 01' rationality. Will decision science pass tbis test? The answer depends on whether analysts can quickly and successfully translate their theories into practical approaches and whether these approaches promote the solution of the complex, highly uncertain, and politically sensitive problems that are of greatest concern to government decision makers. The future of decision science, perhaps even the nation's well-being, depends on the outcome. A major difficulty for the analysts who are being called upon by government to apply decision-aiding approaches is that decision science has not yet evolved a universally accepted methodology for analyzing social decisions involving risk. Numerous approaches have been proposed, including variations of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and applied social welfare theory. Each of these, however, has its limitations and deficiencies and none has a proven track record for application to govern ment decisions involving risk. Cost-benefit approaches have been exten sively applied by the government, but most applications have been for decisions that were largely risk-free.
Author: Lionel A. Galway
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 0833040111
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43
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Book Description
A cost estimate for a project such as the acquisition of a new aircraft or satellite system carries with it an inherent probability that the actual cost will exceed the estimate-that changes in requirements, technology, the economic environment, and a multitude of other factors that may occur over the life of the project will change the final cost. One major approach to cost risk analysis-the evaluating and quantifying of the uncertainty of a cost estimate-has been probabilistic: expressing the uncertainty in a cost estimate as a probability distribution over a range of potential costs. Cost analysts in industry and government and researchers in statistics and management have often proposed that, to get probability distributions for platforms using new and untried technologies, expert judgment should be tapped and subjective probability distributions elicited from the experts to represent cost uncertainty. This technical report reviews procedures for eliciting subjective probability distributions in cost risk analysis, both in the cost risk field and in other disciplines in which elicitation has been a topic of research-primarily, statistics and psychology. Because of a lack of empirical work in elicitation, especially in cost risk, the author also interviewed a number of senior people in the cost risk community, who gave insight into the practices of the field. This report should be of interest to cost analysis professionals who wish to quantify uncertainty when using expert opinions in cost risk analysis.
Author: Shlomo Reutlinger
Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 120
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Book Description
The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.
Author: Ajit Kumar Dasgupta
Publisher: New York : Barnes & Noble Books
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 282
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Book Description
Textbook on the application of cost benefit analysis in the field of public sector project evaluation and public policy decision making in the UK - covers theoretical and methodologycal problems involving public goods, social welfare functions, 'shadow' prices and social costs, etc., and includes ttwo case studies of public investment projects. Graphs and references.
Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118763068
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Author: Paul R. Garvey
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 148221976X
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 526
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Book Description
Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective, Second Edition gives you a thorough grounding in the analytical methods needed for modeling and measuring uncertainty in the cost of engineering systems. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of system elements, how to present the analysis to
