European Housing Markets at a Turning Point – Risks, Household and Bank Vulnerabilities, and Policy Options PDF Download
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Author: Ms. Laura Valderrama
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
Author: Ms. Laura Valderrama
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
European housing markets are at a turning point as the cost-of-living crisis has eroded real incomes and the surge in interest rates has made borrowers more vulnerable to financial distress. This paper aims to (i) shed light on the risks in European housing markets, (ii) quantify household vulnerabilties, (iii) assess banking sector implications and (iv) examine policies’ effectiveness using simulations based on microdata from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and EU statistics on income and living conditions (EU-SILC). Under the baseline IMF macroeconomic forecast, the share of households that could struggle to meet basic expenses could rise by 10 pps reaching a third of all households by end 2023. Under an adverse scenario, 45 percent of households could be financially stretched, representing over 40 percent of mortgage debt and 45 percent of consumer debt. The impact on the banking sector seems contained under the baseline forecast, though there are pockets of vulnerability. A 20 percent house price correction could deplete CET1 capital by 100-300 basis points. Fiscal measures, such as subsidies to the bottom income tercile, could save 7 percent of households from financial distress at an estimated cost of 0.8 percent of GDP.
Author: Angana Banerji
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870698
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66
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Book Description
House prices in Europe have shown diverging trends, and this paper seeks to explain these differences by analyzing three groups of countries: the "fast lane", the average performers, and the slow movers. Price movements in the first two groups are found to be driven mostly by income and trends in user costs, and housing markets in these countries seem relatively more susceptible to adverse developments in fundamentals. Real house price declines among the slow movers are harder to explain, although ample supply, low home ownership, and less complete mortgage markets are likely factors. The impact of macroeconomic, prudential and structural policies on housing markets can be large and should be a factor in policy decisions.
Author: Ashok Bardhan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470647140
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 576
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Book Description
A global look at the reasons behind the recent economic collapse, and the responses to it The speculative bubble in the housing market began to burst in the United States in 2007, and has been followed by ruptures in virtually every asset market in almost every country in the world. Each country proposed a range of policy initiatives to deal with its crisis. Policies that focused upon stabilizing the housing market formed the cornerstone of many of these proposals. This internationally focused book evaluates the genesis of the housing market bubble, the global viral contagion of the crisis, and the policy initiatives undertaken in some of the major economies of the world to counteract its disastrous affects. Unlike other books on the global crisis, this guide deals with the housing sector in addition to the financial sector of individual economies. Countries in many parts of the world were players in either the financial bubble or the housing bubble, or both, but the degree of impact, outcome, and responses varied widely. This is an appropriate time to pull together the lessons from these various experiences. Reveals the housing crisis in the United States as the core of the meltdown Describes the evolution of housing markets and policies in the run-up to the crisis, their impacts, and the responses in European and Asian countries Compares experiences and linkages across countries and points to policy implications and research lessons drawn from these experiences Filled with the insights of well-known contributors with strong contacts in practice and academia, this timely guide discusses the history and evolution of the recent crisis as local to each contributor's part of the world, and examines its distinctive and common features with that of the U.S., the trajectory of its evolution, and the similarities and differences in policy response.
Author: Rob Nijskens
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030116743
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 220
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Book Description
This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author: P. Arestis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230246982
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 283
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Book Description
Housing finance structures and Institutional and regulatory/fiscal aspects in housing have changed significantly in recent years. This book examines the development in housing markets in Europe and the US, and looks at ways to make housing more affordable and housing market developments more stable.
Author: Mark Kleinman
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134699204
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 321
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Book Description
Good mix of analytical chapters and descriptive case studies Authors are very well known in the field
Author: Olivier de Bandt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642153402
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 416
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Book Description
During the recession in the years 2008-2009, the most severe for mature economies in the post-war period, housing markets were often mentioned as having a special responsibility. The objective of this book is to shed light on the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its fundamental determinants in terms of supply and demand characteristics, and its relationship with the overall business cycle. The co-movements of house prices across countries are also considered, as well as the channel of transmission of house price changes to the rest of the economy. Particular attention is paid to the effects on private consumption, through possible wealth effects. The book is a compilation of original papers produced by economists and researchers from the four main national central banks in the euro area, also with the participation of leading academics.
Author: Jens Lunde
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118929446
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488
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Book Description
This book provides evidence on how housing finance markets developed across Europe. The objective of the text is to bring together up to date material from across Europe which will help to clarify (i) how national housing finance markets have dealt with the challenges of deregulation and privatisation since the 1980s,(ii) how the financial crisis has impacted on the structure of the industry and the range of financial instruments available, (iii) how governments and the EU have responded to increasing risks and higher indebtedness in most West European countries and the need to grow new finance markets in Eastern Europe, and (iv) how changing housing finance markets impact on the capacity to provide adequate affordable housing into the future.
Author: Jane Kelly
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289935395
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Using household survey data, we document evidence of a loosening of credit standards in Euro area countries that experienced a property price boom-and-bust cycle. Borrowers in these countries exhibited significantly higher loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios in the run up to the financial crisis, and an increasing tendency towards longer-term loans compared to borrowers in other countries. In recent years, despite the long period of historically low interest rates and substantial house price increases in some countries, we do not find s imilar c redit e asing as before the crisis. Instead, we find evidence of a considerable change in borrower characteristics since 2010: new borrowers are older and have higher incomes than before the crisis.
Author: Bill Edgar
Publisher: The Policy Press
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 180
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Book Description
While there is no overall shortage of housing in the EU, 3 million people are homeless and 18 million are housed in inadequate accommodation, that is, housing which lacks basic amenities, is structurally unsound, overcrowded, or does not offer security of tenure. This book seeks an understanding of the situation through a detailed analysis of the European housing market in both the private and state spheres. It offers the first EU wide examination of housing provision, its changing nature and impact on homelessness. The book identifies the institutional changes and policy prescriptions that are necessary to manage the demands of homelessness and inadequate housing among Europe's most vulnerable people.
