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Author: The World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464821089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 126
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Book Description
Economic activity in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is expected to remain resilient but slow this year as a weaker global economy, slowdown in China, and lower commodity prices weigh on the region's growth outlook. Regional growth is likely to drop to 2.8 percent in 2024, following substantial strengthening to 3.3 percent last year because of a shift from contraction to expansion in the Russian Federation and war-hit Ukraine, and a more robust recovery in Central Asia. Regional output growth is projected to moderate further to 2.6 percent in 2025. The outlook faces multiple headwinds. A slower-than-expected recovery in key trading partners, restrictive monetary policies, and exacerbation of geopolitical developments could further dampen growth across the region. Weak productivity growth in ECA in the recent decade has resulted in a sharp slowdown in income convergence with advanced economies. Fundamental drivers of productivity growth, including progress in advancing institutional and market reforms, technology adoption, and innovation, are key for enabling private sector-led growth. Boosting business dynamism in ECA will require addressing several challenges, including upgrading the competitive environment, reducing state involvement in the economy, dramatically boosting the quality of education, and strengthening the availability of finance. While meeting these challenges will look different across countries, addressing them is an essential condition to achieve stronger economic growth and overcome the middle-income trap.
Author: The World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464821089
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 126
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Book Description
Economic activity in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is expected to remain resilient but slow this year as a weaker global economy, slowdown in China, and lower commodity prices weigh on the region's growth outlook. Regional growth is likely to drop to 2.8 percent in 2024, following substantial strengthening to 3.3 percent last year because of a shift from contraction to expansion in the Russian Federation and war-hit Ukraine, and a more robust recovery in Central Asia. Regional output growth is projected to moderate further to 2.6 percent in 2025. The outlook faces multiple headwinds. A slower-than-expected recovery in key trading partners, restrictive monetary policies, and exacerbation of geopolitical developments could further dampen growth across the region. Weak productivity growth in ECA in the recent decade has resulted in a sharp slowdown in income convergence with advanced economies. Fundamental drivers of productivity growth, including progress in advancing institutional and market reforms, technology adoption, and innovation, are key for enabling private sector-led growth. Boosting business dynamism in ECA will require addressing several challenges, including upgrading the competitive environment, reducing state involvement in the economy, dramatically boosting the quality of education, and strengthening the availability of finance. While meeting these challenges will look different across countries, addressing them is an essential condition to achieve stronger economic growth and overcome the middle-income trap.
Author: Ivailo Izvorski
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464819823
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 122
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Book Description
Economic growth slowed sharply last year in Europe and Central Asia, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a surge in inflation, and the sharp tightening of monetary policy and financing conditions hit private consumption, investment, and trade. The marked increase in food and energy prices boosted inflation to a pace not seen in 20 years. The burden of inflation was spread unevenly across households. The poorest households faced inflation that was more than 2 percentage points higher than the inflation faced by the richest households, with this difference exceeding 5 percentage points in some countries. Poverty and inequality rates derived from household-specific inflation rates differ from those based on the standard consumer price index (CPI) approach. These differences have important policy implications, because many programs use CPI†“based inflation adjustments, which do not accurately capture changes in the cost of living of targeted populations. Output growth in the region is projected to remain little changed in 2023 but better than projected in January 2023, largely reflecting upgrades to the pace of expansion in Poland, Russia, and Türkiye.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464818665
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 118
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Book Description
In February 2022, the world was shocked by the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The war is having a devastating impact on human life and causing economic destruction in both countries, and will lead to significant economic losses in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region and the rest of the world. It comes at a particularly vulnerable time for ECA as its economic recovery was expected to be held back by scarring from the pandemic and lingering structural weaknesses. The economic impact of the conflict has reverberated through multiple channels, including commodity and financial markets, trade and migration links, and the damaging impact on confidence. Moreover, the war has added to mounting concerns about a sharp global slowdown, surging inflation and debt, and a spike in poverty levels. Neighboring ECA countries are likely to suffer considerable economic damage because of their strong trade, financial, and migration links with Russia and Ukraine. The war is also causing a destabilizing wave of refugees, financial stresses in vulnerable countries, runaway inflation expectations, and food insecurity. A protracted conflict could further heighten policy uncertainty and fragment critical trade and investment networks.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464816980
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 172
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Book Description
Governments play a critical role in the economies of Europe and Central Asia, where government expenditures are close to 40 percent of gross domestic product and the public sector accounts for nearly 27 percent of total employment, which is almost twice the global average. The public sector often attracts some of the best educated workers in the region. And support for a larger public sector is increasing due to aging populations and their growing health care and long-term care needs, rising inequality and greater support for redistribution, and increasing expenditures as governments address the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The significant role that government plays underscores the importance of the quality of governance in determining productivity and growth and effectively responding to the region’s economic and social challenges. Digital technology and the data revolution offer the potential to increase efficiency, transparency, responsiveness, and citizen trust, directly impacting the quality of government. Across the world, the quality of government is increasingly informed by the extent to which governments harness digital tools and GovTech to optimize management, service delivery, and overall state capacity. Technology and data are also key for fostering collaboration between governments and civil society to improve public sector efficiency and service delivery. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the costs associated with delaying digitalization and GovTech implementation and the opportunities that lie in public sector modernization.
Author: Ivailo Izvorski
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464820457
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 100
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Book Description
Europe and Central Asia (ECA) continues to be negatively impacted by the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, tighter global financial conditions, persistent inflation, and global economic fragmentation. Economic growth in the region is projected to remain weak relative to the long-term trend, delaying the convergence of living standards to those of high-income countries. Climate change is becoming a serious constraint on growth, as extreme weather events are affecting the region with increased frequency and severity. Economic growth for the emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) of the Europe and Central Asia region has been revised up to 2.4% for 2023. The pickup in growth reflects improved forecast for war-hit Ukraine and for Central Asia as well as consumer resiliency in Türkiye and better-than-expected growth in Russia because of a surge in government spending on the military and social transfers. Nevertheless, growth remains weak relative to the long-term pre-pandemic averages. Downside risks cloud the outlook for the 23 EMDEs in Europe and Central Asia. High inflation may persist amid heightened volatility in global commodity markets and a surge in energy prices. Global financial markets may become more volatile and restrictive due to tightening financing conditions. Global growth for 2020-2024 is the weakest than during any five-year period since 1990 and may weaken further.
Author: Assylzat Karabayeva
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 1666966487
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 247
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Book Description
The Russia–Ukraine War and its Implications for Central Asia: Resilience, Connectivity, and Decolonization embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the profound impacts of the Ukraine conflict on Central Asia, viewed through the prism of the region's scholars. This book assesses the geopolitical transformation, economic shifts, and the evolving narratives of national and regional identities, underpinned by thirty years of nation-building and current socio-economic realities. This collection critically navigates between the dual forces of emerging expectations for change, decolonization, and the strong undercurrents of path dependence and local socio-economic constraints. Furthermore, it provides a nuanced examination of the intricate relationships between state, society, and media, illustrating how these dynamics are reshaped in the face of the war’s ongoing impact. Through a balanced perspective, this volume unveils an emerging vision of Central Asia, marked by resilience and a strategic quest for a more pronounced role in global affairs. This work stands as a crucial resource for understanding the multifaceted consequences of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on Central Asia, enriched by authentic, regional voices.
Author: Maurizio Bussolo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464803544
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 363
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Book Description
Societies across Europe and Central Asia are aging, but people are not necessarily living longer. This demographic trend-caused by a decrease in fertility rather than improved longevity-presents both challenges and opportunities for governments, the private sector, and individuals alike. Some of the challenges are well known. Output per capita becomes smaller if it is shared with an increasingly larger group of dependent older people. At a certain point, there may not be sufficient resources to maintain the living standards of this older group, especially if rising expenditures on health care, long-term care, and pensions must be financed through the contributions and taxes paid by ever-smaller younger age groups. Working adults also contribute the most to the pool of savings. As the size of this group shrinks, savings will decline. But these challenges can be transformed into opportunities. Consider these examples: As longevity increases, workers tend to stay in the workforce longer, and, with the right incentives, they will increase their savings. Many current workers, and perhaps even more in the future, will thus not necessarily become dependent once they turn 65. And with slower population growth and smaller young age groups, societies will have an opportunity to improve the quality of education and maintain productivity. Firms in some countries are already adapting by capitalizing on skills that appreciate with age. Cardiovascular diseases account for more than half the difference in life expectancy (above age 50) between the region and Western Europe for men and 75 percent of the corresponding difference for women. Healthier behavior and health systems focused on preventive care could, with no cost increase, dramatically reduce this risk. These opportunities are not to be missed. As populations age, public discourse ranges from concerns about economic decline and fiscal sustainability of pensions and health systems to optimism about opportunities for healthier and more productive aging. The main contribution of Golden Aging is perhaps to show that demography and its consequences are not fixed. Much will depend on how people, firms, and societies adapt and how policy makers and institutions facilitate their behavioral adjustments. The future for Europe and Central Asia does not have to be gray-it can be a golden era of healthy, active, and prosperous aging.
Author: Maurizio Bussolo
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 146481354X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 366
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Book Description
The growing economic fissures in the societies of Europe and Central Asia between generations, between insiders and outsiders in the labor market, between rural and urban communities, and between the super-rich and everyone else, are threatening the sustainability of the social contract. The institutions that helped achieving a remarkable degree of equity and prosperity over the course of several decades now face considerable difficulties in coping with the challenges presented by these emerging forms of inequality. Public surveys reveal rising concerns over inequality of opportunity, while electoral results show a marked shift to populist parties that offer radical solutions to voters dissatisfied with the status quo.There is no single solution to relieve these tensions, and attempts to address them will vary considerably across the region. However, this publication proposes three broad policy principles: (1) promote labor market flexibility while maintaining protection for all types of labor contracts; (2) seek universality in the provision of social assistance, social insurance, and basic quality services; and (3) expand the tax base by complementing progressive labor-income taxation with taxation of capital. These principles could guide the rethinking of the social contract and fulfil European citizens’ aspirations for growth and equity.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926447398X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 99
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Book Description
Kazakhstan’s trade performance has displayed remarkable resilience to recent economic shocks, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing international sanctions. However, connectivity remains one of the greatest challenges facing the country: its trade integration is limited by low density of settlement and economic activity, infrastructure bottlenecks, weaknesses in trade facilitation, and long distances to major markets; its economy still depends on a limited number of export commodities and a narrow range of trading partners. This report summarises the analytical guidance and capacity-building on export diversification in Kazakhstan provided by the OECD in 2022 and 2023. The report complements recent OECD work on trade connectivity in Central Asia, by focusing on practical aspects of export diversification identified in collaboration with the government of Kazakhstan: (i) how to develop export promotion policies for SMEs; (ii) how to design a one-stop shop for exporting SMEs; and (iii) how to improve cross-border co-operation in Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea ports.
Author: World Bank
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815062
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 136
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Book Description
The share of immigrants in Western and Eastern Europe has increased rapidly over the past four decades. Today, one of every three immigrants in the world goes to Europe. Furthermore, although globally only one-third of migration takes place within regions, intraregional migration is especially high within Europe and Central Asia, with 80 percent of the region's emigrants choosing to move to other countries in the region. In high-income destination countries, migrants are often blamed for high unemployment and declining social services. There are also widespread concerns about brain drain in the migrant sending countries of Eastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and Central Asia. This update focuses on the design of policies on labor mobility and presents the trends, determinants, and impacts of low- and high-skilled labor.
