Essays on Multi-product Firms and International Trade PDF Download
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Author: Michael Irlacher
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Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Michael Irlacher
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Languages : en
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Author: Yelena Sheveleva
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Languages : en
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This dissertation consists of three essays spanning the fields of international trade and economic development. In the first essay, we ask why developing countries fail to specialize in products in which they (at least potentially) have a comparative advantage? For example, farmers in land-poor developing countries overwhelmingly produce staples rather than exotic fruits that command high prices. We propose a simple model of trade and intermediation that shows how holdup resulting from poor contracting environment can produce such an outcome. We use the model to examine which polices can help ameliorate the problem, even when its cause cannot be eliminated.In the second and the third essays, we study how exporters introduce new products into the export market. In the second essay, using information on the universe of Chinese exporters to the US, we document a number of empirircal facts that discipline economists' undrstanding of dynamic aspects of multiproduct exporters. In the third essay, we estimate a structural dynamic model of multiproduct exporting.In Chapter 1, "Wheat or Strawberries? Intermediated Trade with Limited Contracting," we develop the model that provides a new explanation as to why developing countries have agricultural productivity orders of magnitude smaller than in the developing countries. We propose that due to contracting frictions agricultural producers often specialize in staples in which they have a comparative disadvantage, instead of specializing in fruits and vegetables which they can grow efficiently and which command higher prices in the export markets. While farmers can subsits on staples, farmers require services of the intermediaries to deliver cash crops to the export market. When markets are thin intermediaries hold the bulk of the bargaining power and offer a small price to the farmer for his produce. Foreseeing the hold up farmers choose to specialize in the staples.In the model, farmers can produce two types of goods: wheat and strawberries. Wheat is suitable for subsistence but farmers are inefficient in producing it. Farmers are efficient in making strawberries, but cannot subsist on it, and have to sell them to an intermediary who makes profits by selling it at the world price. In a frictionless world farmers would specialize in strawberries. Central to the model is the inability of farmers and traders to contract ex-ante on a price. The absence of enforceable contracts sets the stage for the classic hold up problem and precludes negotiating the terms of trade prior to entry into production. We use a two period model with a continuum of traders and farmers. In the first period, farmers decide whether to produce wheat or strawberries and intermediaries decide whether to enter the business of intermediation. In the second period, farmers and traders meet randomly and trade. Since meetings are random and traders do not know the number of local competitors but do know how thick the market is, they can infer the distribution of potential rivals and offer a price based on this information. In other words, traders compete for the output of farmers in the first price auction. As a result, some farmers fetch a high price for their strawberries; others fetch a low price, or even fail to meet an intermediary. Farmers make the production decision based on the expected price.We solve the model and characterize all the possible equilibria as a function of the primitive parameters. Of particular interest is the region in the parameter space that yields multiple equilibria. In the good equilibrium, specialization occurs according to comparative advantage and there is intermediation, while in the bad equilibrium, there is no intermediation and the staple is produced. Our work suggests that there may be some simple measures to ensure intermediation and specialization according to comparative advantage even if the government is not able to resolve the core issue, the underlying lack of enforceable contracts. A temporary production subsidy or a marketing board that ensures a sufficiently high minimum price to the farmer can help an economy remove the bad equilibrium without intermediation. This paper is closely related to the work of Antras and Costinot (2011). In their paper they focus on the implications of intermediation for globalization in a model that assumes that contracts between traders and producers are enforceable. In contrast we study the implications of contractual failure on production choices in a model of trade with intermediation. In Chapter 2, "Multiproduct Exporters: Empirical Regularities," we use information on Chinese exporters to the US to document a number of empirical regularities regarding dynamic multiproduct exporter behaviour. First, we confirm that scope and firm scale are positively associated. This suggests that more productive firms select to produce more products. Furthermore we find empirical regularities that are consistent with firms facing uncertainty in the export market. We explore the conjecture that firms learn about their potential in new export products trough exporting similar products. We find only tentative support for this conjecture.In chapter 3, "Multiproduct Exporters: Learning versus Knowing," we develop and estimate a structural model of multiproduct exporters based on three empirical regularities documented using data on Chinese exporters. These regularities are as follows: (1) multi-product exporters introduce their best-selling products early; (2) more than 40% of the new products introduced by incumbent exporters are dropped due to low sales within the first year; (3) for a firm, the probability of introducing a new product is positively related to the survival and success of the earlier products.The first regularity is consistent with unobserved firm-product specific heterogeneity. The second suggests that both incumbents and new exporters face uncertainty when they introduce new products. The third is consistent with firms learning about their potential in an export market, i.e., their brand effect, as they introduce new products. We develop a model which incorporates all of these features, and we estimate it structurally using data on Chinese exporters to the U.S. in the plastics industry.First, we find that known demand shocks play an important role in whether producers enter the exporting market or not. Second, we find that it is important to account for large attrition among new exporters including uncertainty about the brand effect. When we let firms know their brand effect precisely, only those with sufficiently high brand effects enter, and then the model cannot replicate disproportionately large attrition of new products among new exporters. Third, we find that while firms act consistently with learning about their brand effect, the uncertainty that firms face in conjunction with introducing new products looms large, and limits the extent to which learning affects incentives of firms to add new products. Our counterfactuals show that the distribution of products among the high brand effect firms only marginally first order stochastically dominates the distribution for low brand effect firms.Using our model we revisit the question of trade policy in the multiproduct firm setting. We simulate a decrease in the cost of introducing new products for firms. Our simulations suggest that in the presence of economies of scope and even moderate learning effects, decreasing costs of introducing subsequent products can make a significant contribution to increasing trade flows.
Author: Rhea Yuzhu Zhang
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Languages : en
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Author: Chi-Hung Liao
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ISBN: 9781321211993
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Languages : en
Pages :
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Product quality plays an important role in determining international trade flows. Its level is related to product unit value, characteristics of importing countries, and many other key variables in trade. In this dissertation, we study product quality and its role in various trade topics. In the first chapter, we study its role in price markup and how it is related to the importing countries' income. In the second chapter, we study multi-product firm's decision on exporting the top and the bottom qualities and the range of quality ladder facing different destination markets. In the last chapter, we study how a firm's offshoring decision is related to the quality of final product, the probabilities of making mistakes, the wage difference, and the size of the economy. We will describe each chapter in detail in the following paragraphs. We believe this dissertation complements current literature on product quality and tradein the areas of price markeup, multi-product firm behavior, and offshoring decision. In the first chapter, we begin by documenting the price discrimination practice based on destinations' per-capita income levels from the automobile industry. It is found that low-quality model manufacturers practice price discrimination while high-quality model manufacturers set price more uniformly across destinations. A highly tractable model was developed to capture these different practices of pricing strategies by including the distribution cost in the firm's decision. Each firm in the model simultaneously chooses quality and price to maximize its profits. The model predicts that highly productive firms not only produce higher quality products, but also price their products more uniformly across destinations. An extension of the model that features consumer income inequality predicts that products are sold at higher prices in countries with high income inequality. This result reconciles observations of high prices found in some developing countries such as China. Empirical results support the model's two key predictions: firms with higher productivity price their products more uniformly; and countries' income inequalities affect price positively.The second chapter is motivated by the stylized fact that not all vertically differentiated car models are sold sold in each country. Furthermore, the number of car models sold in each country appear to be systematically affected by destination market's conditions. To study this stylized fact of multi-product firm's decision on quality products, we use a model where firms simultaneously determine optimal prices and the range of quality products. It is found that the top and bottom qualities and the length of the quality ladder are affected systematically by various firm's and market's conditions. The empirical results using European car data from 1993-2011 supports the key predictions in the model.In the last chapter, we are interested in studying firm's offshoring decision and how it is related to product quality. In recent years, the highly intensified and diversified global offshoring activities have been accompanied by some onshoring activities led by large U.S. manufacturing companies. To address this stylized fact, we started with a value-chain offshoring model with product quality specification. Besides the wage difference between countries, the model assumes that each country has a probability of making mistakes. It is found that the range of tasks processed in offshoring destination is related to the probabilities of making mistakes, the wages, and the size of the economies. Increasing the quality of final product, however, does not change the range of products being offshored which implies an onshoring activity. Following the theoretical model, we use the trade data in China from 1998-2013 in the empirical model and confirm the key predictions in the theoretical model. This chapter contributes to current offshoring literature by addressing the product quality specification, the onshoring activities, and identifying the effect of making fewer mistakes on the range of products offshored.
Author: Luca Macedoni
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ISBN: 9780355151237
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Languages : en
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The effects of international economic integration on the prices the firms charge and the number of varieties available for consumption is crucial for the welfare of consumers. This dissertation is a compilation of three essays, which, using both theory and empirical analysis, study the determinants of prices and of the number of varieties available for consumption. Recent empirical work has shown that world trade is dominated by firms producing multiple products, and that a few large exporters, or superstars, account for most of a country's exports. These findings challenge traditional models of trade, in which each firm is small and produces a single product. The first two chapters of my dissertation study how the presence of multiproduct firms and superstars affects the predictions of the traditional models of trade. In chapter one, I study the effects of international integration on consumers' welfare in the presence of large multiproduct exporters. The welfare of consumers depends on how large firms choose the number of the varieties they export - their product scope. I focus on two determinants of the scope of large exporters: income effects and cannibalization effects, namely the reduction in a firm's own sales following the introduction of a new variety. Several sources of data confirm the empirical relevance of the two determinants: 1) the product scope increases with the per capita income of the destination, and 2) as evidence of cannibalization effects, there exists a hump-shaped relationship between product scope and market share of a firm. I build a model of large multiproduct firms that generates results consistent with the empirical evidence. The model features firms competing oligopolistically and consumers with non-homothetic preferences. What are the effects of international integration on the welfare of consumers? To answer to this question, I derive a new formula for the welfare gains from trade that arise in a world of large multiproduct exporters. The formula highlights the contributions of income and cannibalization effects to the welfare gains from trade. In fact, models that ignore income effects would overestimate the gains from trade, while models that ignore cannibalization effects underestimate the gains. Moreover, neglecting cannibalization effects causes a sizable underestimation of the gains from trade in more concentrated industries. A common prediction of standard models of multiproduct firms is that firm's total sales are proportional to the firm's scope. The underlying assumption is that the ability of a firm to produce efficiently a variety is proportional to its ability to introduce new varieties. In chapter two, joint with Mingzhi Xu, we document that such a prediction performs poorly in the data. Using Chinese firm-level data, we find a disconnect between sales and scope across firms within a destination: for any level of sales, there are several single product firms and wide scope firms. Moreover, firm-destination specific shocks explain more than 50% of the variation in scope across firms and destinations, and the scope of exporters conditional on sales depends on measurable characteristics of firms, such as capital intensity and R&D expenditures. We rationalize the three stylized facts in a model in which firms differ in their productivity and in their flexibility, namely the ability to introduce new varieties in a destination at low costs. The additional layer of heterogeneity has new implications for both intensive and extensive margins of trade.While the first two chapters of the dissertation study how economic integration - modeled as a reduction in trade frictions - affects the welfare of consumers, in the third chapter, I examine those trade frictions, decomposing their nature and their effects. Recent research showed that deviations from the Law of One Price are starkly smaller within a currency union. Can a reduction in trade costs within a currency union explain this fact? I answer to this question in chapter three. I apply Heckscher's insight that transaction costs create bands of inaction in which price differences are not arbitraged away. Only when price differences exceed a certain threshold does arbitrage become profitable and prices begin to converge. A simple model of international arbitrage predicts that bands of inaction between two countries increase with trade costs and decline with the countries' sizes. I use monthly disaggregated price indices from 32 European countries from 1999 to 2016 and estimate the bands of inaction for the relative prices of 43 tradable commodities, using a Threshold Autoregressive Model. Currency unions reduce trade costs: the bands of inaction between countries that are in the European Monetary Union are 17% lower than the average band.
Author: Walter Steingress
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Languages : en
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Author: Konstantinos Costas Arkolakis
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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ISBN: 9783866246195
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 140
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Author: Takaaki Itoga
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Languages : en
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This dissertation consists of three chapters on multi-product firms. The first chapter shows reduced-form evidence on the interactions of multiple product lines at a firm through the allocation of scarce production factors. The second chapter continues the same research by structurally estimating utility and production functions, and by conducting counterfactual exercises in which the prices of imported products fall as in the trade liberalization in India since 1991. The final chapter proposes a model with dynamic factor adjustment and endogenous choice of product lines.
Author: Daisoon Kim
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Languages : en
Pages : 149
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This research investigates how international trade and business cycles vary with characteristics of industries. The first chapter documents cost side industry heterogeneity across narrowly defined industries. The second and third chapters study the short run (international business cycle) and long run (home market effect) phenomenon, respectively. The research contributes to a better understanding of how the supply side industry heterogeneity plays a vital role in international trade and macroeconomics. The first chapter provides a method to estimate the cost structure. The approach relies on cost minimization and free entry condition with frictions, which allows decomposing sources of economies of scale into a sloping marginal cost curve and fixed cost. The US manufacturing industry data show that industry-level economies of scale are more strongly associated with marginal costs than fixed costs. The second chapter shows that the industry's international business cycle patterns vary systemically by the slopes. In industries with decreasing marginal costs, output, imports, and exports are all more correlated with aggregate GDP than in industries with increasing marginal costs. To rationalize the observed patterns, this chapter introduces sloping marginal cost curves and their variations across industries in an open economy macroeconomic model. It delivers endogenous export gains/losses and within-firm links between domestic and export markets which generate two attractive features of the model: (i) it raises model-implied cross-country aggregate GDP comovements which are close to the data, and (ii) it reproduces observed industrial international business cycle patterns. The results suggest that sloping marginal cost curves and their heterogeneity are informative to understand the international business cycle. The third chapter studies how industry characteristics determine the home market effect: the impact of country size on trade surplus and the location of industries. This chapter constructs a two-country multi-industry new trade model that allows for various supply- and demand-side industry characteristics. A novel feature of the model is that economies of scale arise not just from fixed costs, but also from sloping marginal cost curves. The model predicts that large countries have a higher concentration of industries in which (i) marginal costs are an important source of economies of scale, and (ii) products are more differentiated. This chapter tests these theoretical predictions using a gravity-based specification and introduces instrumental variables to fix measurement error and proxy problems. The empirical results are consistent with the main predictions of the model. The results show that the primary building blocks of new trade theory, economies of scale and product differentiation, are central to understanding international trade patterns in narrowly defined industries. The research supposes that a non-linear cost function and variations in cost structure across industries improve our understanding of international trade and business cycles.
