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Author: Meri Obstbaum
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ISBN: 9789526047355
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Author: Meri Obstbaum
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789526047355
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Author: Jeremy Rastouil
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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During the Great Recession, the interactions between housing, labor and entry highlight the existence of narrow propagation channels between these markets. The aim of this thesis is to shed a light on labor market interactions with firm entry and financial business cycles, by building on the recent theoretical and empirical of DSGE models. In the first chapter, we have found evidence of the key role of the net entry as an amplifying mechanism for employment dynamics. Introducing search and matching frictions, we have studied from a new perspective the cyclicality of the mark-up compared to previous researches that use Walrasian labor market. We found a less countercyclical markup due to the acyclical aspect of the marginal cost in the DMP framework and a reduced role according to firm's entry in the cyclicality of the markup. In the second chapter, we have linked the borrowing capacity of households to their employment situation on the labor market. With this new microfoundation of the collateral constraint, new matches on the labor market translate into more mortgages, while separation induces an exclusion from financial markets for jobseekers. As a result, the LTV becomes endogenous by responding procyclically to employment fluctuations. We have shown that this device is empirically relevant and solves the anomalies of the standard collateral constraint. In the last chapter, we extend the analysis developed in the previous one by integrating collateral constrained firms in order to have a more complete financial business cycle. The first result is that an entrepreneur collateral constraint integrating capital, real commercial estate and wage bill in advance is empirically relevant compared to the collateral literature associated to the labor market which does not consider these three assets. The second finding is the role of the housing price and credit squeezes in the rise of the unemployment rate during the Great Recession. The last two chapters have important implications for economic policy. A structural deregulation reform in the labor market induces a significant rise in the debt level for households and housing price, combined with a substantial rise of firm debt. Our approach allows us to reveal that a macroprudential policy aiming to tighten the LTV ratio for household borrowers has positive effects in the long run for output and employment, while tightening LTV ratios for entrepreneurs leads to the opposite effect.
Author: Alireza Sepahsalari
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Author: Mahama Abdel Samir Sidbéwendé Bandaogo
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ISBN:
Category : Economic policy
Languages : en
Pages : 107
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In this dissertation I study how economic activity outside of government control --informality-- impacts policy-making in a small open economy. I also study the impact of labor mobility in a currency union on the welfare of the union. Chapter 1 is concerned with the impact of informality on the Ramsey optimal fiscal and monetary policy. In particular, I ask: how does economic activity outside of government control affect the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy? I study this question in a New Keynesian, small open economy model. The model is assumed to feature informality in both goods and labor markets. A non-traded sector produces a non-taxed informal good. The traded sector produces a formal good and is subject to taxation, but it can hire workers using both formal and informal contracts. I show that the presence of informality decreases the optimal tax rate and increases macroeconomic volatility. Moreover, when the country cannot credibly precommit to the optimal policy, informality significantly increases the incentive to peg the currency. This result can help explain why many sub-Saharan African countries have plans to either expand existing currency unions or to form new ones. In Chapter 1 I also investigate the impact of the informal sector on fiscal policy: the tax rate levied by the government in the formal sector and the amount of public debt. With the steady state of the theoretical model described above, I show that the presence of informality decreases the optimal tax rate and increases the level of public debt. Using a panel data of developing countries, I empirically document the negative relationship between the size of the informal sector on the tax rate and its positive relationship with public debt. Chapter 2 is concerned with how migration within a currency union affects welfare across the union. In particular, I study this question in this paper with a New Keynesian currency union model. The union consists of two countries whose economies are characterized by labor market frictions. One country member has a higher job-finding rate and a lower unemployment rate compared to the other country, hence unemployed agents in the latter have an incentive to relocate to the former. I show that when firms have the ability to hire workers from abroad and when unemployed agents can relocate to a different country, the negative impact of asymmetric shocks is significantly reduced, improving welfare across the union on average.
Author: Christoph Ungerer
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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The classical treatment of market transactions in economics presumes that buyers and sellers engage in transactions instantly and at no cost. In a series of applications in the housing market, the labour market and the market for corporate bonds, this thesis shows that relaxing this assumption has important implications for Macroeconomics and Finance. The first chapter combines theory and empirical evidence to show that search frictions in the housing market imply a housing liquidity channel of monetary policy transmission. Expansionary monetary policy attracts buyers to the housing market, raising housing liquidity. Higher housing sale rates in turn allow lenders to threaten foreclosure more effectively, because the expected carrying costs on foreclosure inventory are lower. Ex-ante, this makes banks willing to offer larger loans, stimulating aggregate demand. The second chapter uses a heterogeneous firm industry model to explore how the macroeconomic response to a temporary employer payroll tax cut depends on the hiring and firing costs faced by firms. Controversially, the presence of non-convex labour adjustment costs suggests that tax cuts create fewer jobs in recessions. When firms hoard labour during downturns, they do not respond to marginal tax cuts by hiring additional workers. The third chapter develops a theory in which trader career concerns generate an endogenous transaction friction. Traders are reluctant to sell assets below historical purchase price, since realizing a loss signals to the employer that the trader is incompetent. The chapter documents empirically several properties of corporate bond transaction data consistent with this theory of career-concerned traders.
Author: Rohan Kekre
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Motivated by policy debates emerging from the U.S. Great Recession and Eurozone crisis, I study the stabilization role of monetary, fiscal, and macroprudential policies in response to short-run fluctuations. In the first essay on "Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization", I characterize the role of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity as a particular instrument of fiscal policy, and use my framework to quantitatively evaluate the employment and welfare effects of UI extensions in the U.S. over 2008-13. In the second essay on "Labor Market Frictions in a Monetary Union", I study stabilization trade-offs and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union where labor markets are frictional and heterogeneous across member states, with implications for the sustainability of the Euro and policy of the ECB. In the third essay on "Firm vs. Bank Leverage over the Business Cycle", I develop a general equilibrium model explaining the contrasting cyclical behavior of non-financial corporate and bank leverage in U.S. data, and study its implications for macroprudential regulation in banking. Methodologically, these essays share a focus on building theoretical models of closed and open economies to address policy-relevant questions in macroeconomics, drawing on additional ideas from related fields such as public economics and finance.
Author: A. Sepahsalari
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781339401652
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 232
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The Great Recession of 2008-09 in the U.S. was characterized by high and persistent unemployment and lack of bank lending due to liquidity issues. The recession was preceded by a housing crisis that quickly spread to the banking and broader financial sectors. We attempt to account for the depth and persistence of unemployment by considering the relationship between credit and firm hiring explicitly. To do so, we introduce search and matching frictions to characterize the dynamics of credit markets in a series of macroeconomic models that present different types of distortions in the labor market as well as in the interbank market. We obtain a novel propagation and amplification mechanism of a financial crisis associated to an inefficiency wedge that affects the aggregate production function of the economy and depends directly on credit conditions.
Author: Gergő Motyovszki
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ISBN:
Category : Macroeconomics
Languages : en
Pages : 156
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This thesis is composed of three independent chapters, but all centered around the broader topic of how macroeconomic policies interact with various aspects of household heterogeneity. Monetary Policy and Inequality under Labor Market Frictions and Capital-Skill Complementarity We provide a new channel through which monetary policy has distributional consequences at business cycle frequencies. We show that an unexpected monetary easing increases labor income inequality between high and less-skilled workers. In particular, this effect is prominent in sectors intensive in less-skilled labor, that exhibit high degree of capital-skill complementarity (CSC) and are subject to matching inefficiencies. To rationalize these findings we build a New Keynesian DSGE model with asymmetric search and matching (SAM) frictions across the two types of workers and CSC in the production function. We show that CSC on its own introduces a dynamic demand amplification mechanism: the increase in high-skilled employment after a monetary expansion makes complementary capital more productive, encouraging a further rise in investment demand and creating a multiplier effect. SAM asymmetries magnify this channel. Monetary-Fiscal Interactions and Redistribution in Small Open Economies Ballooning public debts in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic can present monetary-fiscal policies with a dilemma if and when neutral real interest rates rise, which might arrive sooner in emerging markets: policymakers can stabilize debts either by relying on fiscal adjustments (AM-PF) or by tolerating higher inflation (PM-AF). The choice between these policy mixes affects the efficacy of the fiscal expansion already today and can interact with the distributive properties of the stimulus across heterogeneous households. To study this, I build a two agent New Keynesian (TANK) small open economy model with monetary-fiscal interactions. Targeting fiscal transfers more towards high-MPC agents increases the output multiplier of a fiscal stimulus, while raising the degree of deficitfinancing for these transfers also helps. However, precise targeting is much more important under the AM-PF regime than the question of financing, while the opposite is the case with a PM-AF policy mix: then deficit-spending is crucial for the size of the multiplier, and targeting matters less. Under the PM-AF regime fiscal stimulus entails a real exchange rate depreciation which might offset "import leakage" by stimulating net exports, if the share of hand-to-mouth households is low and trade is price elastic enough. Therefore, a PM-AF policy mix might break the Mundell-Fleming prediction that open economies have smaller fiscal multipliers relative to closed economies. Weak Wage Recovery and Precautionary Motives after a Credit Crunch During the economic recovery following the financial crisis many advanced economies saw subdued wage dynamics, in spite of falling unemployment and an increasingly tight labour market. We propose a mechanism which can account for this puzzle and work against usual aggregate demand channels. In a heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets we endogenize uninsurable idiosyncratic risk through search-and-matching (SAM) frictions in the labour market. In this setting, apart from the usual precautionary saving behaviour, households can self-insure also by settling for lower wages in order to secure a job and thereby avoid becoming borrowing constrained. This channel is especially pronounced for asset-poor agents, already close to the constraint. We introduce a credit crunch into this framework modelled as a gradual tightening of the borrowing constraint (and utilizing a continuous time approach, known as HACT). The perfect foresight transition dynamics feature falling wages despite a tightening labour market and expanding employment. As households suddenly find themselves closer to the borrowing constraint, the increased precautionary motive drives them to accept lower wages in the bargaining process, while firms respond to this by posting more vacancies, leading to a tighter labour market and falling unemployment. If the household deleveraging pressure is persistent enough after the credit crunch, it can explain the weak wage recovery in spite of already stronger aggregate demand.
Author: Dongchen Zhao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter concerns the secular changes in the U.S. firm size distribution and firm dynamics. This chapter sets up a quantitative model of firm dynamics with debt heterogeneity to study the implications of changes in real interest rates for the firm size distribution and firm dynamics. It shows that the decline in long-term real interest rates since the early 1980s can account for a significant fraction of the shift in employment shares to large firms as well as the decline in firms per capita and firm entry rates experienced in the U.S. over the same period. In the model, firms endogenously choose financial intermediaries issuing debt with either earnings-based (EBC) or asset-based (ABC) borrowing constraints. The two types of constraints arise naturally from the imperfect enforceability of debt contracts and are in line with recent empirical findings. A decline in real interest rates benefits firms with EBC more because they are not constrained by their assets and can expand more due to increased earnings. Since firms with higher earnings optimally choose earnings-based lending, the decline in real interest rates shifts employment shares to larger firms. Moreover, the growth of large firms crowds out smaller firms and firm entry through general equilibrium effects. The paper tests the mechanism in cross-country data from the OECD and finds a stronger association between the decline in real interest rates and changes in firm dynamics, especially in countries with deeper credit markets. In the second chapter, I study the effects of government regulations on firm dynamism. The impact of government regulations on the economy is a central topic in policy debates. However, due to the endogeneity of regulations and challenges in measuring them, these debates remain contentious. This paper establishes the causal effects of government regulations on firm dynamism by employing a novel shift-share (Bartik) instrument in conjunction with the RegData dataset, which quantifies regulations based on the text of federal regulatory documents. The primary assumption for identification is that, for each sector, the exposure to regulations from different government agencies at the beginning of the period is exogenous to any confounding factors. The findings reveal that government regulatory restrictions significantly increase firm exit rates and discourage the formation of establishments, while having no substantial impact on firm entry. Furthermore, these restrictions contribute to reduced job creation, elevated job destruction, and diminished overall employment. These effects are consistently observed across various age groups. The results lend support to the idea that government regulations can raise production costs for firms and/or enhance the monopolistic power of certain companies. Both mechanisms can diminish the profits of affected firms, leading to increased firm exit rates and reduced labor demand. Additionally, the findings refute the interpretation of regulations as solely serving as entry barriers. The final chapter of the dissertation investigates the labor market outcomes for involuntary part-time workers and their subsequent effects on welfare levels. Through an analysis of survey data, I demonstrate that involuntary part-time workers exhibit reservation wages comparable to those of unemployed workers. This similarity largely stems from parallel wage offers and offer arrival rates. Contrary to previous research, this finding indicates that involuntary part-time workers experience welfare levels akin to unemployed workers. One possible explanation for this discrepancy lies in the methodology of prior studies. Conclusions drawn from earlier research, which primarily focused on the faster transition of involuntary part-time workers into full-time positions compared to other workers, may be flawed. This is because these workers also tend to revert to their previous job types at a faster rate. To further explore the implications of these discoveries, I employ a quantitative search model. The calibrated model supports the assertion that involuntary part-time workers experience welfare levels similar to those of unemployed workers. Furthermore, the model suggests that neither extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers nor enhancing the likelihood that unemployed workers transition to part-time positions would effectively increase the prevalence of full-time employment
