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Author: Mohammad Fazeer Sheik Rahim
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 121
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Author: Mohammad Fazeer Sheik Rahim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 121
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Author: Min Fang (Economist)
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ISBN:
Category : Housing
Languages : en
Pages : 147
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"This dissertation consists of essays addressing the macroeconomic outcomes of heterogeneous agent general equilibrium models with micro-level frictions. Each chapter employs both empirical and quantitative macroeconomic methods. The first chapter studies the impact of elevated volatility on the effectiveness of monetary policy on aggregate investment under firm-level capital adjustment costs. I argue that monetary policy is less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility in firm-level TFP than during normal times. Empirically, I document that high volatility weakens investment responses to monetary stimulus. I then develop a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with lumpy investment to interpret these findings. In the model, non-convex capital adjustment costs create a sizable extensive margin of investment which is more sensitive to changes in both interest rate and volatility than the intensive margin. When volatility is high, firms tend to stay inactive at the extensive margin, so monetary stimulus motivates less investment at the extensive margin. I find that the quantitative implications of the model are primarily shaped by the specifications of the capital adjustment costs. Unlike much of the prior literature, I use the dynamic moments of investment to identify this key model element. Based on this parameterization, high volatility reduces the effectiveness of monetary stimulus for investment by 30%. This reduction is about half of what I find in the data. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy depends on both the lumpy nature of firm-level investment and fluctuations in volatility. The second chapter studies the role of migration and housing constraints in determining income inequality within and across Chinese cities. Combining microdata and a spatial equilibrium model, we quantify the impact of the massive spatial reallocation of workers and the rapid growth of housing costs on the national income distribution. We first show several stylized facts detailing the strong positive correlation between migration inflows, housing costs, and imputed income inequality among Chinese cities. We then build a spatial equilibrium model featuring workers with heterogeneous skills, housing constraints, and heterogeneous returns from housing ownership to explain these facts. Our quantitative results indicate that the reductions in migration costs and the disproportionate growth in productivity across cities and skills result in the observed massive migration flows. Combining with the tight land supply policy in big cities, the expansion of the housing demand causes the rapid growth of housing costs, and enlarges the inequality between local housing owners and migrants. The counterfactual analysis shows that if we redistribute land supply increment by migrant flow and increase land supply toward cities with more migrants, we could lower the within-city income inequality by 14% and the national income inequality by 18%. Meanwhile, we can simultaneously encourage more migration into higher productivity cities"--Pages vii-viii.
Author: Kyooho Kwon
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ISBN:
Category : Labor supply
Languages : en
Pages : 84
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"Chapter 1 develops a heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model that incorporates both intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. A nonconvexity in the mapping between time devoted to work and labor services distinguishes between extensive and intensive margins. We consider calibrated versions of this model that differ in the value of a key preference parameter for labor supply and the extent of heterogeneity. The model is able to capture the key features of the empirical hours worked distribution, including how individuals transit within this distribution. We then study how the various specifications influence labor supply responses to temporary shocks and permanent tax changes, with a particular focus on the intensive and extensive margin elasticities in response to these changes. We find important interactions between heterogeneity and the extent of curvature in preferences. Chapter 2 builds a model of family labor supply in which individuals choose between full-time work, part-time work, and nonemployment. The model is calibrated to replicate the movements of both male and female workers among these states. The willingness to substitute hours over time (the so-called intertemporal elasticity of labor supply) is critical for many economic analysis. A common strategy for uncovering the value of this willingness is to carry out structural estimation on micro panel data. One general issue in this estimation exercises using micro data is that misspecification of the constraints that individuals face is likely to influence inference about preference parameters. In the model economy, although the individual labor supply problem is a discrete choice problem, individuals are able to adjust hours along the intensive margin by moving between part-time and fulltime work. Intuitively, adjustment along the intensive margin potentially allows one to estimate the true value of the underlying curvature parameter describing the utility from leisure. We explore the extent to which standard labor supply methods can achieve this in our setting. Although these methods deliver precise estimates that are significantly different from zero, the estimates are effectively unrelated to the true underlying values. These methods also deliver elasticity estimates for women, even when the underlying preference parameters are the same for men and women. Chapter 3 investigates the optimal progressive tax code in an incomplete-market economy in which households are linked intergenerationally by altruism and earning ability. The model economy is calibrated to that of the US with the progressive tax code suggested by Gouviea and Strauss (1994). First, I compute the equilibrium with the optimal progressive tax code. Second, I investigate the extent to which the size of government welfare programs affects the optimal progressivity of the income tax code. I find that the optimal tax code for an economy populated with altruistic households is approximately equivalent to a proportional tax of 23.1% with a fixed deduction of approximately $17,000 in 1990 US dollars. For an economy populated with non-altruistic households, however, these numbers are 18.8% and $12,000 respectively. This result implies that inequality is more severe in an economy with intergenerational links so that the policy maker requires a more progressive tax system to provide insurance. Additionally, I find that when the size of the government welfare program is chosen carefully, the additional insurance benefits from the progressive income tax code disappear"--Pages iv-v.
Author: Nikita R. Céspedes Reynaga
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Category : Brain drain
Languages : en
Pages : 98
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"This thesis is a collection of essays on development economics from a macro-quantitative perspective. These issues are studied in subsequent chapters. In Chapter 1, I study migration from a quantitative perspective. Developing countries have experienced an outstanding outflow of skilled workers (brain drain) over the last several decades. Additionally, migrants tend to be tied to their country of birth, since they send large amounts of remittances to their relatives. Furthermore, migration is not permanent, since a considerable number of workers return to their country of birth after a migration spell. In this paper I develop a model that is consistent with these facts. I use this model to address some important issues in the migration literature from a theoretical perspective. I study the general equilibrium effects of migration, its long-term effects, its welfare effects, and evaluate whether the joint effect of return migration and remittances is strong enough to offset the effects of the brain drain (effects of skilled migration). In a final step, I evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions that attempt to offset the effects of the brain drain. In Chapter 2, I study the economic effects of an anti-poverty conditional cash transfers (CCT) policy by using a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model. I look at the program's impact on output, human capital, poverty and income inequality. I also study its welfare implications and its effects on the intergenerational transmission of poverty. The quantitative analysis reveals that a long-term implementation of this anti-poverty program helps to reduce the intergenerationa transmission of poverty. In aggregate terms the welfare gain is small but varies across agents; the winners are those who are in the lower tail of the income distribution and the losers are those located in the upper tail. Finally, this program increases the human capital of households and, through this channel, induces a consistent reduction of both poverty and income inequality"--Page v-vi.
Author: Zhigang Ge
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Abstract Chapter 1. Heterogeneous Entrepreneurial Ability and Wealth Inequality Models with entrepreneurship can reproduce high wealth concentration at the top. The key assumption is the borrowing constraint, that is, households are unable to borrow enough assets to start a business or invest optimally in the business. However, some empirical evidences show that borrowing constraint does not matter for the majority of households in the US. This paper seeks to generate high wealth concentration at the top without assuming borrowing constraint. The baseline model that introduces heterogeneity in entrepreneurial ability is able to match the wealth distribution while the model assuming same entrepreneurial ability fails. Besides wealth distribution, the baseline model generates other moments that are consistent with the data. Chapter 2. Taxing Top Earners: The Role of Entrepreneurs This paper studies the optimal top marginal income tax rate in a quantitative framework with entrepreneurial choice, financing constraints, and realistic earnings and wealth distributions. I find that the revenue-maximizing top tax rate is approximately 41 percent -- close to the recent levels in the US. In contrast, when calibrated with only workers to match realistic earnings and wealth distributions, the model predicts a revenue-maximizing top tax rate of 81 percent -- close to the established view. There are two channels through which the baseline model has a lower revenue-maximizing top tax rate. First, the wealth distribution channel: increasing the top tax rate decreases wealth accumulation and leads to a less skewed wealth distribution in the long run (there are more top entrepreneurs with low wealth and less top entrepreneurs with high wealth). With financing constraints, there is a similar change in the business earnings distribution, implying a fall in the average business earnings at the top. Second, the general equilibrium effect on labor earnings of workers: in the model with entrepreneurs, increasing the top tax rate reduces the capital stock much more than labor supply, which decreases the capital-labor ratio and thus the equilibrium wage rate in the model economy. Finally, I find that the welfare-maximizing top marginal income tax rate is close to the revenue-maximizing one. Chapter 3. Household Heterogeneity and Consumption Amplification Macroeconomic models with household heterogeneity in wealth can generate larger consumption response to aggregate shocks compared to a representative-agent economy. In other words, there is consumption amplification associated with wealth heterogeneity. However, I find that in a Krusell-Smith type real business cycle (RBC) model, this amplification effect is only significant at the onset of a recession and gradually dies out as the recession proceeds. The finding is of interest because part of the motivation for the widely adoption of models with wealth heterogeneity is their different and empirically plausible implications for consumption dynamics compared with representative-agent models. I then introduce household heterogeneity in housing and find that the model with housing has more persistent amplification effect on consumption during the recession.
Author: Jihee Kim
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Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Top income inequality, defined as the income gap within the top 1% income group, has been rising in the United States since the 1980s but remained low and stable in economies like France and Japan. Why? This dissertation studies what might have affected the widening income gap in the United States as well as the cross-country differences. The first chapter considers the most natural candidate: the effect of the top marginal tax rate on the high-income taxpayers. Identifying endogenous human capital accumulation as a link between top marginal tax rates and top incomes, this chapter shows that a decline in the top marginal tax rate can increase top income inequality as well as top incomes. We develop an infinite-horizon, heterogeneous agent model, where human capital accumulation is endogenously characterized by a proportional random growth process. If the top marginal tax rate declines, the benefit of human capital investment will increase, thereby increasing the growth rate of human capital. Since this growth rate pins down the Pareto inequality measure of the top income distribution, a decrease in the top marginal tax rate will lead to a more unequal Pareto income distribution, while simultaneously increasing every top income. When calibrated to the U.S. income data, the model finds that the reduction of the top marginal tax rate from 60% to 35% can account for 46.6% of the increase in top income inequality and 41.0% of the increase in the top 1% income share between 1980 and 2010. The second chapter theoretically examines three other candidates: the rise in the rate of top income growth, the direction of technological change, and misallocation of top talents to firms. The first model shows that if the growth rate of top incomes increases either by the rise in the returns to experience or by the rise in human capital accumulation effort, the top income inequality increases. The second model studies the direction of technological change and shows why the technological changes can be "talent-biased" at least along a transition path. The last model shows that top income inequality can increase when the matching between firms and talent becomes more efficient. This suggests that the rise in top income inequality in the United States may reflect an improvement in the allocation of talent.
Author: Lukas Nord
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Category : Households
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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This thesis contains four independent essays studying the consequences of household heterogeneity for Macroeconomics. The first chapter studies the implications of household heterogeneity for equilibrium prices. I break with the canonical assumptions of homothetic preferences and the law of one price to show how heterogeneity in consumption baskets and search for price bargains affects posted prices. Analytical results from search theory and empirical evidence from big data on households' grocery transactions show that price distributions respond to the composition of buyers. In a quantitative heterogeneous agent model with endogenous price dispersion for multiple varieties, I find that the response of retailers to households' search effort is quantitatively important to differentiate between inequality in expenditure and consumption. It more than doubles the direct effect of paying more or less given posted prices, which has been the focus of previous literature. Furthermore, I find that household heterogeneity helps to account for the empirical cyclicality of retail prices and markups in response to aggregate shocks, and has implications for the response of prices to redistributive policies. In the second chapter, which is joint work with Annika Bacher and Philipp Grübener, we show how households with two members can insure themselves against the job loss of a primary earner through the labor force entry of a nonparticipating spouse. We document empirically that this margin is predominantly used by young households. In a two-member life cycle model with endogenous arrival rates, human capital accumulation, and extensive-margin labor supply, we explore how differences in labor market opportunities and asset holdings contribute to this pattern. Our findings suggest that the age difference is predominantly explained by better insurance through asset holdings for the old, while differences in arrival rates and human capital play a smaller role. In the third chapter, which is joint work with Caterina Mendicino and Marcel Peruffo, we study differences in the exposure to bank distress along the income distribution. We develop a two-asset heterogeneous agent model with a financial sector and use this framework to show that banking sector losses disproportionately harm low-income households while rich households adjust their savings behavior to profit from fluctuations in asset prices. This is why welfare losses from bank distress are considerably more dispersed than consumption responses. We find the model-implied consumption responses to be in line with empirical evidence on the relationship between bank equity returns and consumption across households. In the forth chapter, I study how wealth holdings can affect households' incentives to form precise expectations about future inflation rates. I document empirically how the dispersion of expectations changes along the wealth distribution and develop a consumption-savings model with costly expectation formation to study implications for the effectiveness of forward guidance policies. I show endogenous expectation formation to significantly lower the effectiveness of forward guidance policies due to selection in which households are paying attention to news about inflation.
Author: Philipp Grübener
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ISBN:
Category : Equality
Languages : en
Pages : 191
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This thesis contains four independent essays in heterogeneous agent macroeconomics. They explore the sources of income inequality and income risk and study the optimal design of public redistribution and insurance. The first chapter, joint with Filip Rozsypal, studies the origins of idiosyncratic earnings risk in frictional labor markets, with a particular focus on the role of firms for worker earnings risk. First, using administrative matched employer-employee data from Denmark, we document key properties of the worker earnings growth distribution, the firm revenue growth distribution, and their joint distribution. The worker earnings and firm revenue growth distributions exhibit strong deviations from normality, in particular excess kurtosis, with many workers and firms experiencing very small changes to their earnings/revenues, but a significant minority experiencing very large changes. Large earnings losses are more likely for workers in firms with negative revenue growth, driven both by separations to unemployment and earnings losses on the job. Second, we develop a model framework consistent with the data, with four key features: i) frictional labor markets and on the job search to capture unemployment risk and wage growth through a job ladder, ii) multi-worker firms to capture gross and net worker flows, iii) risk averse workers such that earnings risk matters, and iv) contracting with two-sided limited commitment because earnings of job stayers are changing infrequently in the data. Third, we use the model to explore policies designed to mitigate earnings fluctuations. The second chapter, joint with Annika Bacher and Lukas Nord, studies one particular private insurance margin against individual income risk only available to couples, which is the so called added worker effect. Specifically, we study how this intra-household insurance against individual job loss through increased spousal labor market participation varies over the life cycle. We show in U.S. data that the added worker effect is much stronger for young than for old households. A stochastic life cycle model of two-member households with job search in a frictional labor market is capable of replicating this finding. The model suggests that a lower added worker effect for the old is driven primarily by better insurance through asset holdings. Human capital differences between employed young and old contribute to the difference but are quantitatively less important, while differences in job arrival rates play a limited role. In the third chapter, joint with Axelle Ferriere, Gaston Navarro, and Oliko Vardishvili, we study optimal redistribution, taking into account not just the large income and wealth inequality in the data, but also the distribution of income risk that is key in the first two chapters. The U.S. fiscal system redistributes through a rich set of taxes and transfers, the latter accounting for a large part of the income of the poor. Motivated by this, we study the optimal joint design of transfers and income taxes. Within a simple heterogeneous-household framework, we derive analytical results on the optimal relationship between transfers and tax progressivity. Higher transfers are associated with lower optimal income tax progressivity. Redistribution is achieved with generous transfers while efficiency is preserved via a lower progressivity of income taxes. As such, the optimal tax-and-transfer system features larger progressivity of average than of marginal tax rates. We then quantify the optimal tax-and-transfer system in a rich incomplete-market model with realistic distributions of income, wealth, and income risk. The model features a novel flexible functional form for progressive income taxes and means-tested transfers. Relative to the current U.S. fiscal system, the optimal policy consists of more generous means-tested transfers, which phase-out at a slower rate. These larger transfers are financed with higher tax rates, but the taxes are not more progressive than the current system. The fourth chapter, joint with Axelle Ferriere and Dominik Sachs, also studies optimal redistribution, but instead of considering a stationary environment it analyzes the dynamics of the equity-efficiency trade-off along the growth path. To do so, we incorporate the optimal income taxation problem into a state-of-the-art multi-sector structural change general equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences. We identify two key opposing forces. First, long-run productivity growth allows households to shift their consumption expenditures away from necessities. This implies a reduction in the dispersion of marginal utilities, and therefore calls for a welfare state that declines along the growth path. Yet, economic growth is also systematically associated with an increase in the skill premium, which raises inequality and the desire to redistribute. We quantitatively analyze these opposing forces for two countries: the U.S. from 1950 to 2010, and China from 1989 to 2009. Optimal redistribution decreases at early stages of development, as the role of non-homotheticities prevails. At later stages of development the rising income inequality dominates and the welfare state should become more generous.
Author: Rodolfo Erasmo Oviedo Moguel
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Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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The role of credit on wealth inequality in the USA: 1980 - 2012. In the USA, the share of total household wealth held by the richest 1% increased from 23.5 % in 1980 to 41.8% in 2012. A sharp reduction in the saving rate of the bottom 90% accounts for approximately 40% of this change. I construct a quantitative model that, under a reasonable calibration, is able to replicate this fact. I then use the model to decompose the total variation among some of the most likely candidates: (i) changes in credit conditions, (ii) increase in the concentration and riskiness of labor income and, (iii) reforms to the tax code. This decomposition exercise shows that, in the context of my model, the relaxation of the borrowing constraint explains approximately 45% of the increase in the share of wealth going to the top 1%. I also show that, in the absence of the credit constraint, the exogenous changes under (ii) and (iii) would have brought about a counterfactual increase in the aggregate saving rate. The effect of housing on the distribution of wealth in the USA. Wealth inequality increased dramatically in the previous 40 years. We construct a heterogeneous agent model with two types of assets: housing and productive capital and evaluate the effect of the observed increase in the price of housing on the saving behavior of different groups and hence on the wealth distribution. A percentage of the equity in housing can be posted as collateral to issue non-mortgage debt and the increase in the price of housing effectively relaxed the borrowing constraints and increased the permanent income of households. The result is an increase in Non-Mortgage debt for the households that were originally constrained in line with the findings of Mian and Sufi (2014).
Author: 爵丞·蔡
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ISBN:
Category :
Languages : zh-CN
Pages : 108
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