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Author: Mark Mark
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642606636
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
The pioneering study by Bowman [1980) reawakened interest in risk and return relations in the strategic management literature. We do not examine this literature here because we have elsewhere reviewed it in detail 1 and because, for the most part, these studies have been confined to ex post data. Discussions of the strategies which subjects used to direct their ex ante evaluations of risks and returns have either been omitted or else have been only indirectly inferred from ex post data. In addition, with few exceptions, this literature does not attempt to ascertain the meanings that might have been assigned by subjects to terms like "risk" and/or the "returns" with which they have been concerned. Even fewer of these studies have attempted to ascertain how the subjects implemented their definitions en of prospective strategies. Thus, tius literature may route to arriving at evaluations best be regarded as bearing only indirect relations to the present study which is concerned not only with the meanings assigned to terms like "risk" and "return" but also with how these terms are used in arriving at risk and return evaluations of proposed strategies as well as how they are measured and used, on an ex ante basis en route to seeing how these evaluations match with ex post performance. In a sense, one part of this study--i. e.
Author: Mark Mark
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642606636
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
The pioneering study by Bowman [1980) reawakened interest in risk and return relations in the strategic management literature. We do not examine this literature here because we have elsewhere reviewed it in detail 1 and because, for the most part, these studies have been confined to ex post data. Discussions of the strategies which subjects used to direct their ex ante evaluations of risks and returns have either been omitted or else have been only indirectly inferred from ex post data. In addition, with few exceptions, this literature does not attempt to ascertain the meanings that might have been assigned by subjects to terms like "risk" and/or the "returns" with which they have been concerned. Even fewer of these studies have attempted to ascertain how the subjects implemented their definitions en of prospective strategies. Thus, tius literature may route to arriving at evaluations best be regarded as bearing only indirect relations to the present study which is concerned not only with the meanings assigned to terms like "risk" and "return" but also with how these terms are used in arriving at risk and return evaluations of proposed strategies as well as how they are measured and used, on an ex ante basis en route to seeing how these evaluations match with ex post performance. In a sense, one part of this study--i. e.
Author: Herbert Dawid
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319391208
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 518
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Book Description
This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.
Author: Kinga Posadzy
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN: 9176854213
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices. The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do. The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored. The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error. The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular. The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.
Author: Mark H Karwan
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783642606649
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 440
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Book Description
Author: Ulrich Cornelius Philip Julian Schneider
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Author: Jacques Drèze
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521386975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 460
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Book Description
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.
Author: Joshua B. Miller
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 104
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Book Description
Author: David Austen-Smith
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 354027295X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332
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Book Description
Social choices, about expenditures on government programs, or about public policy more broadly, or indeed from any conceivable set of alternatives, are determined by politics. This book is a collection of essays that tie together the fields spanned by Jeffrey S. Banks' research on this subject. It examines the strategic aspects of political decision-making, including the choices of voters in committees, the positioning of candidates in electoral campaigns, and the behavior of parties in legislatures. The chapters of this book contribute to the theory of voting with incomplete information, to the literature on Downsian and probabilistic voting models of elections, to the theory of social choice in distributive environments, and to the theory of optimal dynamic decision-making. The essays employ a spectrum of research methods, from game-theoretic analysis, to empirical investigation, to experimental testing.
Author: A. Szaniawski
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401152608
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 256
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Book Description
There are two competing pictures of science. One considers science as a system of inferences, whereas another looks at science as a system of actions. The essays included in this collection offer a view which intends to combine both pictures. This compromise is well illustrated by Szaniawski's analysis of statistical inferences. It is shown that traditional approaches to the foundations of statistics do not need to be regarded as conflicting with each other. Thus, statistical rules can be treated as rules of behaviour as well as rules of inference. Szaniawski's uniform approach relies on the concept of rationality, analyzed from the point of view of decision theory. Applications of formal tools to the problem of justice and division of goods shows that the concept of rationality has a wider significance. Audience: The book will be of interest to philosophers of science, logicians, ethicists and mathematicians.
Author: Yitong Wang
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781124791951
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 108
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Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays. The first essay explores how to counteract the uncertainty effect bias by appropriately manipulating either the anchoring process or the adjustment process involved in the bias. First, I examine how providing an anchor prior to judging the value of the lottery affects individuals' judgments, and find that anchoring on the worst outcome counteracts the uncertainty effect. Then I investigate if omitting information about the probability of the outcomes to create an ambiguous lottery affects individuals' judgments, and find that this is not sufficient to counteract the uncertainty effect. Finally, I explore if introducing additional cognitive load dampens over-adjustment and thus affect individuals' judgments, and find that additional cognitive load is able to counteract the uncertainty effect bias. In an intertemporal choice context, the second essay investigates decision makers' subjective perception of the temporal duration between now and the time they would receive future payments. I show that participants' subjective perceptions of temporal duration are not independent of the outcome magnitudes, where larger monetary outcomes are associated with shorter subjective time perception (experiments 1 & 2). Furthermore, this difference in temporal perception can help us explain the magnitude effect. My results replicate the magnitude effect when taking only objective time into account but show a constant discount rate when taking subjective time perception into account (experiment 3). The third essay investigates the impacts of an ambiguous time on decision making over time. In the first experiment, employing hypothetical scenarios and a between-subjects design, I found that in some situations, decision makers may discount more when facing an ambiguous time delay than facing the end of the ambiguous span. Furthermore, a reversed magnitude effect, the gain/loss asymmetry, and the short term/long term asymmetry phenomenon were observed in experiment 1. In experiment 2, I tested the effects we found in experiment 1 with real payoffs. First, the observed effect that people over-discount an outcome with an ambiguous realizing time was found only in individual level data analyses. Second, I found that the short term/long term asymmetry appeared in all cases across different conditions and experiment design.
