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Author: Huug van den Dool
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780199202782
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
The author describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of two weeks to a year. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, this text covers empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue.
Author: Huug van den Dool
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 9780199202782
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 253
Get Book Here
Book Description
The author describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of two weeks to a year. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, this text covers empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue.
Author: Huug M. Van den Dool
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199202788
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 252
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Book Description
The author describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of two weeks to a year. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, this text covers empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue.
Author: Daniela Faggiani Dias
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 164
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Book Description
Climate variations on seasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economical and environmental impacts. As such, the ability to make skilful and reliable climate predictions at these time scales offers many benefits for climate preparedness, adaptation and resilience. In the recent years, major progress has been made in the development of such predictions with the advent of simulations with global climate models that are initialized from the current climate state. However, many challenges remain including an understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms for skilful predictions and whether such predictions could be improved. The purpose of this thesis is to establish new benchmarks for seasonal to decadal predictions in diverse components of the climate system and to provide some pieces of evidence that help to understand what are the drivers for these predictable patterns. Specifically, we use a suite of empirical models to perform predictions of oceanic and atmospheric variables together with initialized climate predictions to: 1. Understand the contribution of remote and local factors to the predictability of North and Tropical Pacific Oceans Sea Surface Temperature and Land Surface Temperature over Western North America; 2. Provide a higher baseline level skill for the state-of-art global prediction systems, from seasonal to decadal time scales; 3. Explore possible sources of errors in the global climate model simulations using statistical predictive models. First, we isolate contributions to the forecast skill from different spatial and time scales in the Pacific Ocean using a Liner Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach, showing the importance of temporal scale interactions in improving the predictions on decadal time scales. Specifically, we show that the Extratropical North Pacific is a source of predictability for the tropics on seasonal to interannual time scales, while the tropics enhance the forecast skill for the decadal component. We then show that the skill for an empirically-built LIM is comparable to and sometimes better than that from two state-of-art global prediction systems, from seasonal to decadal timescales and for several regions around the globe. These results indicate that the evolution of the system in those areas may not be not fully driven by unpredictable dynamics and that there may be some room for improvement in the dynamical models predictions, given that a low-dimensional linear model is able to generate better skill than the fully-coupled nonlinear model. Bearing that in mind, we use the LIM linear feedback matrix to explore possible sources of errors in the dynamical model simulations and we find that some of the simulated atmospheric and oceanic local and remote feedbacks differ in several key regions from that obtained with observations. These results may indicate sources of error in the dynamical models and therefore in its prediction skill that merit focused attention. We then investigate the role of remote and local predictors in seasonal predictors of minimum and maximum air temperatures over the Western North America, using a Canonical Correlation Analysis approach. We show that remote predictors, in the form of Pacific climate modes, provide the best predictive skill for temperature over land, particularly during wintertime. Lastly, considering that persistence is the widely-used measure when evaluating the predictive skill for dynamical models, we suggest the use of CCA as a much higher benchmark for seasonal predictions of land surface air temperatures.
Author: Huug van den Dool
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 9780199202782
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 16
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Book Description
This clear, accessible text describes the methods and advances in short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. With an emphasis on the prediction methods themselves and the use of observations, the text is ideal for students and researchers in Meteorology, Atmospheric Science, Geoscience, Mathematics, Statistics and Physics.
Author: Alberto Troccoli
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319684183
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 212
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Book Description
This open access book showcases the burgeoning area of applied research at the intersection between weather and climate science and the energy industry. It illustrates how better communication between science and industry can help both sides. By opening a dialogue, scientists can understand the broader context for their work and the energy industry is able to keep track of and implement the latest scientific advances for more efficient and sustainable energy systems. Weather & Climate Services for the Energy Industry considers the lessons learned in establishing an ongoing discussion between the energy industry and the meteorological community and how its principles and practises can be applied elsewhere. This book will be a useful guiding resource for research and early career practitioners concerned with the energy industry and the new field of research known as energy meteorology.
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309161347
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author: Victor Privalsky
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030580555
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 253
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Book Description
This book gives the reader the basic knowledge of the theory of random processes necessary for applying to study climatic time series. It contains many examples in different areas of time series analysis such as autoregressive modelling and spectral analysis, linear extrapolation, simulation, causality, relations between scalar components of multivariate time series, and reconstructions of climate data. As an important feature, the book contains many practical examples and recommendations about how to deal and how not to deal with applied problems of time series analysis in climatology or any other science where the time series are short.
Author: Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0123850231
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 697
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Book Description
Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030917340X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 189
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Book Description
El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
Author: Gerald R. North
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0123822262
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 2874
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Book Description
Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition, Six Volume Set is an authoritative resource covering all aspects of atmospheric sciences, including both theory and applications. With more than 320 articles and 1,600 figures and photographs, this revised version of the award-winning first edition offers comprehensive coverage of this important field. The six volumes in this set contain broad-ranging articles on topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction. The Encyclopedia is an ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences. It is written at a level that allows undergraduate students to understand the material, while providing active researchers with the latest information in the field. Covers all aspects of atmospheric sciences—including both theory and applications Presents more than 320 articles and more than 1,600 figures and photographs Broad-ranging articles include topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction An ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences
