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Author: Nitya Tangada Rao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
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Book Description
Endorsements are an integral part of American political campaigns, but despite their ubiquity, there exists only sparse literature evaluating either the impact of endorsements on electoral outcomes or the circumstances in which endorsements are offered. I hypothesized that the primary factor influencing a politician’s decision to endorse was a perceived increase in a candidate’s chance of success; thus politicians are more likely to endorse candidates who have demonstrated a real potential for winning the election. Using the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination and the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination as case studies, I regressed daily proportions of endorsements given on prediction market share prices from the Iowa Electronic Markets. I used an Almon distributed lag model to account for the delay between a politician observing an increase in a candidate’s chance of success and their subsequent endorsement. Though there was a weakly positive association between prediction market share prices and endorsements shares, I found little evidence to support the claim that politicians systematically offer endorsements in response to increases in a candidate’s probability of success.
Author: Nitya Tangada Rao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 96
Get Book Here
Book Description
Endorsements are an integral part of American political campaigns, but despite their ubiquity, there exists only sparse literature evaluating either the impact of endorsements on electoral outcomes or the circumstances in which endorsements are offered. I hypothesized that the primary factor influencing a politician’s decision to endorse was a perceived increase in a candidate’s chance of success; thus politicians are more likely to endorse candidates who have demonstrated a real potential for winning the election. Using the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination and the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination as case studies, I regressed daily proportions of endorsements given on prediction market share prices from the Iowa Electronic Markets. I used an Almon distributed lag model to account for the delay between a politician observing an increase in a candidate’s chance of success and their subsequent endorsement. Though there was a weakly positive association between prediction market share prices and endorsements shares, I found little evidence to support the claim that politicians systematically offer endorsements in response to increases in a candidate’s probability of success.
Author: Joel M. Podolny
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400837871
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 304
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Book Description
Why are elite jewelers reluctant to sell turquoise, despite strong demand? Why did leading investment bankers shun junk bonds for years, despite potential profits? Status Signals is the first major sociological examination of how concerns about status affect market competition. Starting from the basic premise that status pervades the ties producers form in the marketplace, Joel Podolny shows how anxieties about status influence whom a producer does (or does not) accept as a partner, the price a producer can charge, the ease with which a producer enters a market, how the producer's inventions are received, and, ultimately, the market segments the producer can (and should) enter. To achieve desired status, firms must offer more than strong past performance and product quality--they must also send out and manage social and cultural signals. Through detailed analyses of market competition across a broad array of industries--including investment banking, wine, semiconductors, shipping, and venture capital--Podolny demonstrates the pervasive impact of status. Along the way, he shows how corporate strategists, tempted by the profits of a market that would negatively affect their status, consider not only whether to enter the market but also whether they can alter the public's perception of the market. Podolny also examines the different ways in which a firm can have status. Wal-Mart, for example, has low status among the rich as a place to shop, but high status among the rich as a place to invest. Status Signals provides a systematic understanding of market dynamics that have--until now--not been fully appreciated.
Author: Randall G. Holcombe
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108596126
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 305
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Book Description
Problems associated with cronyism, corporatism, and policies that favor the elite over the masses have received increasing attention in recent years. Political Capitalism explains that what people often view as the result of corruption and unethical behavior are symptoms of a distinct system of political economy. The symptoms of political capitalism are often viewed as the result of government intervention in a market economy, or as attributes of a capitalist economy itself. Randall G. Holcombe combines well-established theories in economics and the social sciences to show that political capitalism is not a mixed economy, or government intervention in a market economy, or some intermediate step between capitalism and socialism. After developing the economic theory of political capitalism, Holcombe goes on to explain how changes in political ideology have facilitated the growth of political capitalism, and what can be done to redirect public policy back toward the public interest.
Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 1101595957
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 546
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Book Description
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158
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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author: Amy Chua
Publisher: Anchor
ISBN: 1400076374
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 370
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Book Description
The reigning consensus holds that the combination of free markets and democracy would transform the third world and sweep away the ethnic hatred and religious zealotry associated with underdevelopment. In this revelatory investigation of the true impact of globalization, Yale Law School professor Amy Chua explains why many developing countries are in fact consumed by ethnic violence after adopting free market democracy. Chua shows how in non-Western countries around the globe, free markets have concentrated starkly disproportionate wealth in the hands of a resented ethnic minority. These “market-dominant minorities” – Chinese in Southeast Asia, Croatians in the former Yugoslavia, whites in Latin America and South Africa, Indians in East Africa, Lebanese in West Africa, Jews in post-communist Russia – become objects of violent hatred. At the same time, democracy empowers the impoverished majority, unleashing ethnic demagoguery, confiscation, and sometimes genocidal revenge. She also argues that the United States has become the world’s most visible market-dominant minority, a fact that helps explain the rising tide of anti-Americanism around the world. Chua is a friend of globalization, but she urges us to find ways to spread its benefits and curb its most destructive aspects.
Author: V. Sivakumar Reddy
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9813369124
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 729
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Book Description
This book presents selected research papers on current developments in the fields of soft computing and signal processing from the Third International Conference on Soft Computing and Signal Processing (ICSCSP 2020). The book covers topics such as soft sets, rough sets, fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms and machine learning and discusses various aspects of these topics, e.g., technological considerations, product implementation and application issues.
Author: Olivier Blanchard
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262526824
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 251
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Book Description
Prominent economists reconsider the fundamentals of economic policy for a post-crisis world. In 2011, the International Monetary Fund invited prominent economists and economic policymakers to consider the brave new world of the post-crisis global economy. The result is a book that captures the state of macroeconomic thinking at a transformational moment. The crisis and the weak recovery that has followed raise fundamental questions concerning macroeconomics and economic policy. These top economists discuss future directions for monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial regulation, capital-account management, growth strategies, the international monetary system, and the economic models that should underpin thinking about critical policy choices. Contributors Olivier Blanchard, Ricardo Caballero, Charles Collyns, Arminio Fraga, Már Guðmundsson, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Otmar Issing, Olivier Jeanne, Rakesh Mohan, Maurice Obstfeld, José Antonio Ocampo, Guillermo Ortiz, Y. V. Reddy, Dani Rodrik, David Romer, Paul Romer, Andrew Sheng, Hyun Song Shin, Parthasarathi Shome, Robert Solow, Michael Spence, Joseph Stiglitz, Adair Turner
![Undercurrent Journal: Vol. 10, Issue 3 (Summer 2014) [B&W] PDF](https://books.google.com/books/content/images/frontcover/naOEBwAAQBAJ?fife=w80-h100)
Author: Clarke Foster (Editor-In-Chief)
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1312549653
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 70
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Book Description
Undercurrent is the only student-run national undergraduate journal publishing scholarly essays and articles that explore the subject of international development. The journal is a refereed publication dedicated to providing a non-partisan, supportive, yet critical and competitive forum exclusively for undergraduate research, writing, and editing.
Author: Sebastian Mallaby
Publisher: A&C Black
ISBN: 1408809753
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497
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Book Description
Wealthy, powerful, and potentially dangerous, hedge-find managers have emerged as the stars of twenty-first century capitalism. Based on unprecedented access to the industry, More Money Than God provides the first authoritative history of hedge funds. This is the inside story of their origins in the 1960s and 1970s, their explosive battles with central banks in the 1980s and 1990s, and finally their role in the financial crisis of 2007-9. Hedge funds reward risk takers, so they tend to attract larger-than-life personalities. Jim Simons began life as a code-breaker and mathematician, co-authoring a paper on theoretical geometry that led to breakthroughs in string theory. Ken Griffin started out trading convertible bonds from his Harvard dorm room. Paul Tudor Jones happily declared that a 1929-style crash would be 'total rock-and-roll' for him. Michael Steinhardt was capable of reducing underlings to sobs. 'All I want to do is kill myself,' one said. 'Can I watch?' Steinhardt responded. A saga of riches and rich egos, this is also a history of discovery. Drawing on insights from mathematics, economics and psychology to crack the mysteries of the market, hedge funds have transformed the world, spawning new markets in exotic financial instruments and rewriting the rules of capitalism. And while major banks, brokers, home lenders, insurers and money market funds failed or were bailed out during the crisis of 2007-9, the hedge-fund industry survived the test, proving that money can be successfully managed without taxpayer safety nets. Anybody pondering fixes to the financial system could usefully start here: the future of finance lies in the history of hedge funds.
