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Author: Gilles O. Zumbach
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
The limitations of volatilities computed with daily data as well as simple statistical considerations strongly suggest to use intraday data in order to obtain accurate volatility estimates. Under a continuous time arbitrage-free setup, the quadratic variations of the prices would allow us, in principle, to construct an approximately error free estimate of volatility by using data at the highest frequency available. Yet, empirical data at very short time scales differ in many ways from the arbitrage-free continuous time price processes. For foreign exchange rates, the main difference originates in the incoherent structure of the price formation process. This market micro-structure effect introduces a noisy component in the price process leading to a strong overestimation of volatility when using naive estimators. Therefore, to be able to fully exploit the information contained in high frequency data, this incoherent effect needs to be discounted. In this contribution, we investigate several unbiased estimators that take into account the incoherent noise. One approach is to use a filter for pre-whitening the prices, and then using volatility estimators based on the filtered series. Another solution is to directly define a volatility estimator using tick-by-tick price differences, and including a correction term for the price formation effect. The properties of these estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. A number of important real-world effects are included in the simulated processes: realistic volatility and price dynamic, the incoherent effect, seasonalities, and random arrival time of ticks. Moreover, we investigate the robustness of the estimators with respect to data frequency changes and gaps. Finally, we illustrate the behavior of the best estimators on empirical data.
Author: Gilles O. Zumbach
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 22
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Book Description
The limitations of volatilities computed with daily data as well as simple statistical considerations strongly suggest to use intraday data in order to obtain accurate volatility estimates. Under a continuous time arbitrage-free setup, the quadratic variations of the prices would allow us, in principle, to construct an approximately error free estimate of volatility by using data at the highest frequency available. Yet, empirical data at very short time scales differ in many ways from the arbitrage-free continuous time price processes. For foreign exchange rates, the main difference originates in the incoherent structure of the price formation process. This market micro-structure effect introduces a noisy component in the price process leading to a strong overestimation of volatility when using naive estimators. Therefore, to be able to fully exploit the information contained in high frequency data, this incoherent effect needs to be discounted. In this contribution, we investigate several unbiased estimators that take into account the incoherent noise. One approach is to use a filter for pre-whitening the prices, and then using volatility estimators based on the filtered series. Another solution is to directly define a volatility estimator using tick-by-tick price differences, and including a correction term for the price formation effect. The properties of these estimators are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. A number of important real-world effects are included in the simulated processes: realistic volatility and price dynamic, the incoherent effect, seasonalities, and random arrival time of ticks. Moreover, we investigate the robustness of the estimators with respect to data frequency changes and gaps. Finally, we illustrate the behavior of the best estimators on empirical data.
Author: Lan Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
With the availability of high frequency financial data, nonparametric estimation of volatility of an asset return process becomes feasible. A major problem is how to estimate the volatility consistently and efficiently, when the observed asset returns contain error or noise, for example, in the form of microstructure noise. The former (consistency) has been addressed heavily in the recent literature, however, the resulting estimator is not quite efficient. In Zhang, Mykland, Ait-Sahalia (2003), the best estimator converges to the true volatility only at the rate of n wedge{-1/6}. In this paper, we propose an estimator, the Multi-scale Realized Volatility (MSRV), which converges to the true volatility at the rate of n wedge{-1/4}, which is the best attainable. We have shown a central limit theorem for the MSRV estimator, which permits setting intervals for the true integrated volatility on the basis of MSRV.
Author: Cheng-Few Lee
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9781461477495
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
The Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics provides, in four volumes and over 100 chapters, a comprehensive overview of the primary methodologies in econometrics and statistics as applied to financial research. Including overviews of key concepts by the editors and in-depth contributions from leading scholars around the world, the Handbook is the definitive resource for both classic and cutting-edge theories, policies, and analytical techniques in the field. Volume 1 (Parts I and II) covers all of the essential theoretical and empirical approaches. Volumes 2, 3, and 4 feature contributed entries that showcase the application of financial econometrics and statistics to such topics as asset pricing, investment and portfolio research, option pricing, mutual funds, and financial accounting research. Throughout, the Handbook offers illustrative case examples and applications, worked equations, and extensive references, and includes both subject and author indices.
Author: Eric Renault
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
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Book Description
We derive nonparametric bounds for inference about functionals of high-frequency volatility, in particular, integrated power variance. In the absence of microstructure noise, we find that standard Realized Variance attains the nonparametric efficiency bound, also in case of unequally spaced random observation times. For higher powers, e.g., integrated quarticity, the block-based procedures of Mykland and Zhang (2009) can get arbitrarily close to the nonparametric bounds in case of equally spaced observations. The estimator in Jacod and Rosenbaum (2013) is efficient, also at non-constant volatility, still for equally spaced data. For unequally spaced data, we provide an estimator, similar to that of Kristensen (2010), that can get arbitrarily close to the nonparametric bound. Finally, contrary to public opinion, we demonstrate that parametric information about the functional form of volatility generally leads to a decreased lower bound, unless the volatility process is piecewise constant.
Author: Yacine Aït-Sahalia
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691161437
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 683
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Book Description
A comprehensive introduction to the statistical and econometric methods for analyzing high-frequency financial data High-frequency trading is an algorithm-based computerized trading practice that allows firms to trade stocks in milliseconds. Over the last fifteen years, the use of statistical and econometric methods for analyzing high-frequency financial data has grown exponentially. This growth has been driven by the increasing availability of such data, the technological advancements that make high-frequency trading strategies possible, and the need of practitioners to analyze these data. This comprehensive book introduces readers to these emerging methods and tools of analysis. Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Jean Jacod cover the mathematical foundations of stochastic processes, describe the primary characteristics of high-frequency financial data, and present the asymptotic concepts that their analysis relies on. Aït-Sahalia and Jacod also deal with estimation of the volatility portion of the model, including methods that are robust to market microstructure noise, and address estimation and testing questions involving the jump part of the model. As they demonstrate, the practical importance and relevance of jumps in financial data are universally recognized, but only recently have econometric methods become available to rigorously analyze jump processes. Aït-Sahalia and Jacod approach high-frequency econometrics with a distinct focus on the financial side of matters while maintaining technical rigor, which makes this book invaluable to researchers and practitioners alike.
Author: Donggyu Kim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
In this dissertation, we study two topics, the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data and quantum state tomography. In Part I, we study the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data. We first investigate how to estimate large volatility matrices effectively and efficiently. For example, we introduce threshold rules to regularize kernel realized volatility, pre-averaging realized volatility, and multi-scale realized volatility. Their convergence rates are derived under sparsity on the large integrated volatility matrix. To account for the sparse structure well, we employ the factor-based Itô processes and under the proposed factor-based model, we develop an estimation scheme called "blocking and regularizing". Also, we establish a minimax lower bound for the eigenspace estimation problem and propose sparse principal subspace estimation methods by using the multi-scale realized volatility matrix estimator or the pre-averaging realized volatility matrix estimator. Finally, we introduce a unified model, which can accommodate both continuous-time Itô processes used to model high-frequency stock prices and GARCH processes employed to model low-frequency stock prices, by embedding a discrete-time GARCH volatility in its continuous-time instantaneous volatility. We adopt realized volatility estimators based on high-frequency financial data and the quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GARCH structure to develop parameter estimation methods for the combined high-frequency and low-frequency data. In Part II, we study the quantum state tomography with Pauli measurements. In the quantum science, the dimension of the quantum density matrix usually grows exponentially with the size of the quantum system, and thus it is important to develop effective and efficient estimation methods for the large quantum density matrices. We study large density matrix estimation methods and obtain the minimax lower bound under some sparse structures, for example, (i) the coefficients of the density matrix with respect to the Pauli basis are sparse; (ii) the rank is low; (iii) the eigenvectors are sparse. Their performances may depend on the sparse structure, and so it is essential to choose appropriate estimation methods according to the sparse structure. In light of this, we study how to conduct hypothesis tests for the sparse structure. Specifically, we propose hypothesis test procedures and develop central limit theorems for each test statistics. A simulation study is conducted to check the finite sample performances of proposed estimation methods and hypothesis tests.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 368
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Book Description
In this dissertation, we study two topics, the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data and quantum state tomography. In Part I, we study the volatility analysis based on the high-frequency financial data. We first investigate how to estimate large volatility matrices effectively and efficiently. For example, we introduce threshold rules to regularize kernel realized volatility, pre-averaging realized volatility, and multi-scale realized volatility. Their convergence rates are derived under sparsity on the large integrated volatility matrix. To account for the sparse structure well, we employ the factor-based Itô processes and under the proposed factor-based model, we develop an estimation scheme called “blocking and regularizing". Also, we establish a minimax lower bound for the eigenspace estimation problem and propose sparse principal subspace estimation methods by using the multi-scale realized volatility matrix estimator or the pre-averaging realized volatility matrix estimator. Finally, we introduce a unified model, which can accommodate both continuous-time Itô processes used to model high-frequency stock prices and GARCH processes employed to model low-frequency stock prices, by embedding a discrete-time GARCH volatility in its continuous-time instantaneous volatility. We adopt realized volatility estimators based on high-frequency financial data and the quasi-likelihood function for the low-frequency GARCH structure to develop parameter estimation methods for the combined high-frequency and low-frequency data. In Part II, we study the quantum state tomography with Pauli measurements. In the quantum science, the dimension of the quantum density matrix usually grows exponentially with the size of the quantum system, and thus it is important to develop effective and efficient estimation methods for the large quantum density matrices. We study large density matrix estimation methods and obtain the minimax lower bound under some sparse structures, for example, (i) the coefficients of the density matrix with respect to the Pauli basis are sparse; (ii) the rank is low; (iii) the eigenvectors are sparse. Their performances may depend on the sparse structure, and so it is essential to choose appropriate estimation methods according to the sparse structure. In light of this, we study how to conduct hypothesis tests for the sparse structure. Specifically, we propose hypothesis test procedures and develop central limit theorems for each test statistics. A simulation study is conducted to check the finite sample performances of proposed estimation methods and hypothesis tests.
Author: Maria Elvira Mancino
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319509691
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 139
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Book Description
This volume is a user-friendly presentation of the main theoretical properties of the Fourier-Malliavin volatility estimation, allowing the readers to experience the potential of the approach and its application in various financial settings. Readers are given examples and instruments to implement this methodology in various financial settings and applications of real-life data. A detailed bibliographic reference is included to permit an in-depth study.
Author: Xin Zhang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
This dissertation work focuses on developing statistical methods for volatility estimation and prediction with high frequency financial data. We consider two kinds of volatility: integrated volatility and jump variation. In the first part, we introduce the methods for integrated volatility estimation with the presence of microstructure noise. We will first talk about the optimal sampling frequency for integrated volatility estimation since subsampling is very popular in practice. Then we will discuss about those methods based on subsampling. Two-scale estimator is developed using the subsampling idea while taking advantage of all of the data. An extension to the multi-scale further improves the efficiency of the estimation. In the second part, we propose a heterogenous autoregressive model for the integrated volatility estimators based on subsampling. An empirical approach is to estimate integrated volatility using high frequency data and then fit the estimates to a low frequency heterogeneous autoregressive volatility model for prediction. We provide some theoretical justifications for the empirical approach by showing that these estimators approximately obey a heterogenous autoregressive model for some appropriate underlying price and volatility processes. In the third part, we propose a method for jump variation estimation using wavelet techniques. Previously, jumps are not assumed in the model. In this part, we will concentrate on jump variation estimation and there- fore, we will be able to estimate the integrated volatility and jump variation individually. We show that by choosing a threshold, we will be able to detect the jump location, and by using the realized volatility processes instead of the original price process, we will be able to improve the convergence rate of estimation. We include both numerical and empirical results of this method.
Author: Maria Elvira Mancino
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
Availability of high frequency data has improved the capability of computing volatility in an efficient way. Nevertheless, measuring volatility/covariance from the observation of the asset price is challenging for two main reasons: observed asset prices are generally affected by noise microstructure effects and tick-by-tick returns are asynchronous across different assets. In this paper we review the definition and the statistical properties of the so called Fourier estimator of multivariate volatility, with particular focus on using high frequency data. Exploiting the fact that the method allows to compute both the integrated and the instantaneous volatility, we show how to obtain estimators of the volatility of the volatility and the leverage as well. Further, we study the performance of the estimator in forecasting and in terms of portfolio utility in the presence of microstructure noise contaminations.
