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Author: G. Haag
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940090939X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof. W. Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
Author: G. Haag
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 940090939X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 262
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Book Description
Choice processes appear in all spheres of society. Hitherto ruling paradigms in the modelling of choice problems have presumed a competitive general equi librium which, however, proves insufficient for dynamic processes. This contribution aims at providing a general coherent and closed frame work for the dynamic modelling of decision processes. It was one of my main interests to build a bridge between the pure model building concepts and their practical applications. Therefore all given examples are related to empirical work. Solution algorithms for the estimation of trend parameters as well as the numerical simulation in concrete applications therefore playa central role in this contribution. Friendly relations with a number of colleagues from many universities in Europe, and the U.S. have emerged during the different applications. I wish to thank all of them. The international cooperations were mainly initiated and supported by conferences and workshops organized and financed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (lIASA), the Istituto Ricerche Economico-Sociali Del Piemonte (I RES). the Institut National D 'Etudes De'mographiques (I NED), the Centre for Regional Science Research UmeJ. (CERUM) and the Projets de Cooperation et D'Echange avec France (Procop>' Special thanks go to the Volkswagen Stiftung for financial support of this work over the years. Thanks also go in particular to my friend and mentor Prof. W. Weidlich for his encouragement and for the many suggestions he made in fruitful discus sions and common work that have taken place over the years.
Author: John Bather
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 216
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Book Description
Decision Theory An Introduction to Dynamic Programming and Sequential Decisions John Bather University of Sussex, UK Mathematical induction, and its use in solving optimization problems, is a topic of great interest with many applications. It enables us to study multistage decision problems by proceeding backwards in time, using a method called dynamic programming. All the techniques needed to solve the various problems are explained, and the author's fluent style will leave the reader with an avid interest in the subject. * Tailored to the needs of students of optimization and decision theory * Written in a lucid style with numerous examples and applications * Coverage of deterministic models: maximizing utilities, directed networks, shortest paths, critical path analysis, scheduling and convexity * Coverage of stochastic models: stochastic dynamic programming, optimal stopping problems and other special topics * Coverage of advanced topics: Markov decision processes, minimizing expected costs, policy improvements and problems with unknown statistical parameters * Contains exercises at the end of each chapter, with hints in an appendix Aimed primarily at students of mathematics and statistics, the lucid text will also appeal to engineering and science students and those working in the areas of optimization and operations research.
Author: Brian Skyrms
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674218857
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 228
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Book Description
Brian Skyrms constructs a theory of "dynamic deliberation" and uses it to investigate rational decisionmaking in cases of strategic interaction. This illuminating book will be of great interest to all those in many disciplines who use decision theory and game theory to study human behavior and thought. Skyrms begins by discussing the Bayesian theory of individual rational decision and the classical theory of games, which at first glance seem antithetical in the criteria used for determining action. In his effort to show how methods for dealing with information feedback can be productively combined, the author skillfully leads us through the mazes of equilibrium selection, the Nash equilibria for normal and extensive forms, structural stability, causal decision theory, dynamic probability, the revision of beliefs, and, finally, good habits for decision. The author provides many clarifying illustrations and a handy appendix called "Deliberational Dynamics on Your Personal Computer." His powerful model has important implications for understanding the rational origins of convention and the social contract, the logic of nuclear deterrence, the theory of good habits, and the varied strategies of political and economic behavior.
Author: Günter Haag
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9789400909403
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 268
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Book Description
Author: John E. Silvia
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470920513
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 400
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Book Description
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.
Author: Herbert Dawid
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319391208
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 518
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Book Description
This volume collects research papers addressing topical issues in economics and management with a particular focus on dynamic models which allow to analyze and foster the decision making of firms in dynamic complex environments. The scope of the contributions ranges from daily operational challenges firms face to strategic choices in dynamic industry environments and the analysis of optimal growth paths. The volume also highlights recent methodological developments in the areas of dynamic optimization, dynamic games and meta-heuristics, which help to improve our understanding of (optimal) decision making in a fast evolving economy.
Author: Robert E. Hall
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400835267
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 152
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Book Description
Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.
Author: Michael J. Driver
Publisher: iUniverse
ISBN: 1583480056
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294
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Book Description
The insights offered in this book are intended to guarantee the reader a more successful career. It is written especially for managers and executives whose jobs require managing people successfully, but it is also written for anyone who must make decisions that involve other people. The authors discuss the decision styles and habits that people form and how to change decision-making habits where necessary. The models and techniques for decision making presented here have been used throughout the world in all kinds of businesses and government agencies. Decision style concepts can benefit anyone, from a new management trainee or MBA student to the CEO of a large firm.
Author: Edward F. McClennen
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521360470
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 42
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Book Description
In this major contribution to the theory of rational choice the author sets out the foundations of rational choice, and then sketches a dynamic choice framework in which principles of ordering and independence follow from a number of apparently plausible conditions. However there is potential conflict among these conditions, and when they are weakened to avoid it, the usual foundations of rational choice no longer prevail. The thrust of the argument is to suggest that the theory of rational choice is less determinate than many suppose.
Author: Ward Edwards
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 15
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Book Description
