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Author: Simon Scholl
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656541388
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 87
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Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Edinburgh, language: English, abstract: Since the prices in the agricultural commodity market surged in 2008 and 2011 many articles investigated these turbulences from different perspectives. However, neither fundamental factors nor increased financial speculation provides a completely satisfactory explanation on this complex topic. Our study therefore tries to capture all these factors in a single approach and investigates the impact of investor sentiment on wheat futures returns. We construct an investor sentiment index out of monthly data from the period 2000 to 2013 by conducting a principal component analysis (PCA) with a set of well-established sentiment proxies. In particular, we employ three equity market proxies suggested by Baker & Wurgler (2007) and three wheat market specific sentiment proxies, in order to obtain a tailored investor sentiment index. The sentiment index is statistical significant at the 95 per cent significance level and predicts about 2.45 per cent of the total variation in the subsequent month wheat futures returns. The results are also robust after controlling for fundamental factors in an extended multiple linear regression analysis. Our sentiment index therefore proves that investor sentiment impacts wheat futures returns, although further research is needed to verify this relationship.
Author: Simon Scholl
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656541388
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 87
Get Book Here
Book Description
Master's Thesis from the year 2013 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1,0, University of Edinburgh, language: English, abstract: Since the prices in the agricultural commodity market surged in 2008 and 2011 many articles investigated these turbulences from different perspectives. However, neither fundamental factors nor increased financial speculation provides a completely satisfactory explanation on this complex topic. Our study therefore tries to capture all these factors in a single approach and investigates the impact of investor sentiment on wheat futures returns. We construct an investor sentiment index out of monthly data from the period 2000 to 2013 by conducting a principal component analysis (PCA) with a set of well-established sentiment proxies. In particular, we employ three equity market proxies suggested by Baker & Wurgler (2007) and three wheat market specific sentiment proxies, in order to obtain a tailored investor sentiment index. The sentiment index is statistical significant at the 95 per cent significance level and predicts about 2.45 per cent of the total variation in the subsequent month wheat futures returns. The results are also robust after controlling for fundamental factors in an extended multiple linear regression analysis. Our sentiment index therefore proves that investor sentiment impacts wheat futures returns, although further research is needed to verify this relationship.
Author: Matthias Kalkuhl
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319282018
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 620
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Book Description
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Fao
ISBN: 9789256062802
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
In the first half of 2008, the world was facing the highest food price levels in 30 years and a global food insecurity crisis. Although international food prices have since fallen, they are still above the levels seen in recent years and are expected to remain so. FAO estimates that soaring food prices pushed another 115 million people into chronic hunger in 2007 and 2008, bringing the world total to nearly one billion hungry people. This report explains why food prices increased and the steps needed to ensure that high food prices become an opportunity for developing country farmers to help safeguard world food supplies at affordable prices. It focuses on the extent to which "new" explanations - biofuel demand, record oil prices and increasing food demand in China and India - can account for the sudden food price inflation as well as the role of traditional market drivers. It also explores why so few producers in developing countries responded by investing more and increasing production. The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2009 aims to bring to a wider public an accessible discussion of agricultural commodity market issues and policy matters. It seeks to provide an objective and straightforward treatment of economic issues for all those interested in agricultural commodity market developments and their impact on developing countries. Also published in Chinese, English, French, Russian and Spanish
Author: John Baffes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 25
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Book Description
After 2005, commodity prices experienced their longest and broadest boom since World War II. Agricultural prices have now come down considerably since their 2011 peak, but are still 40 percent higher in real terms than their 2000 lows. This paper briefly addresses the main arguments on the causes of the agricultural price cycle. It broadens the scope of analysis by focusing on six agricultural commodities, and identifies the relative weights of key quantifiable drivers of their prices. It concludes that increases in real income negatively affect real agricultural prices, as predicted by Engel's Law. Energy prices matter most (not surprisingly, given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture), followed by stock-to-use ratios and, to a lesser extent, exchange rate movements. The cost of capital affects prices only marginally, probably because it not only influences demand, but also evokes a supply response.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9264312463
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 326
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Book Description
The Agricultural Outlook 2019-2028 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well ...
Author: Lukas Boer
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513599372
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022612892X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 394
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Book Description
"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Author: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
ISBN: 9251346089
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 337
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Book Description
The Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. It brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations as well as input from collaborating member countries to provide an annual assessment of the prospects for the coming decade of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets. The publication consists of 11 Chapters; Chapter 1 covers agricultural and food markets; Chapter 2 provides regional outlooks and the remaining chapters are dedicated to individual commodities.
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226386899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 346
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Book Description
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Author: Mr. Christian Bogmans
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 155775246X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
