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Author: Véronique Bessière
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1
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Book Description
This article examines the link between uncertainty and analysts' reaction to earnings announcements for a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. In the same way as Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam (1998), we posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information followed by an underreaction when the information becomes public. Psychological findings suggest that this effect is more prominent in an uncertain environment. Our tests are based on the relationship between forecast revisions and forecast errors. When analysts excessively integrate information in their revisions (i.e. overreact), their forecast revisions are too intense, and the converse occurs when they underreact. As a proxy for uncertainty we analyze two subsamples: high-tech and low-tech firms. Our results support the overconfidence hypothesis. We jointly observe the two phenomena of under- and overreaction. Overreaction occurs before the public release and disappears after it. Our results also show that both effects are more significant for the high-tech subsample. For robustness, we sort the sample using analyst forecast dispersion as a proxy for uncertainty and obtain similar results. We also document the fact that the high-tech stock crash in 2000-2001 moderated analysts' overconfidence.
Author: Véronique Bessière
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 1
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Book Description
This article examines the link between uncertainty and analysts' reaction to earnings announcements for a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. In the same way as Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam (1998), we posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information followed by an underreaction when the information becomes public. Psychological findings suggest that this effect is more prominent in an uncertain environment. Our tests are based on the relationship between forecast revisions and forecast errors. When analysts excessively integrate information in their revisions (i.e. overreact), their forecast revisions are too intense, and the converse occurs when they underreact. As a proxy for uncertainty we analyze two subsamples: high-tech and low-tech firms. Our results support the overconfidence hypothesis. We jointly observe the two phenomena of under- and overreaction. Overreaction occurs before the public release and disappears after it. Our results also show that both effects are more significant for the high-tech subsample. For robustness, we sort the sample using analyst forecast dispersion as a proxy for uncertainty and obtain similar results. We also document the fact that the high-tech stock crash in 2000-2001 moderated analysts' overconfidence.
Author: Véronique Bessière
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23
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Book Description
This article examines the link between uncertainty and analysts' reaction to earnings announcements for a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. In the same way as Daniel et al. (1998), we posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information followed by an undereaction when the information becomes public. Psychological findings suggest that this effect is more prominent in an uncertain environment. Our tests are based on the relationship between forecast revisions and forecast errors. When analysts excessively integrate information in their revisions (i.e. overreact), their forecast revisions are too intense, and the converse occurs when they underreact. We implement a portfolio analysis and a regression analysis for two subsamples: high-tech and low-tech, as a proxy for uncertainty. Our results support the overconfidence hypothesis. We jointly observe the two phenomena of under- and overreaction. Overreaction occurs when the information has not yet been made public and disappears just after public release. Our results also show that both effects are stronger for the high-tech subsample. For robustness, we sort the sample using analyst forecast dispersion as a proxy for uncertainty and obtain similar results. We also document that the high-tech stocks crash in 2000-2001 moderated analysts' overconfidence.
Author: Richard Leblanc
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119909279
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1556
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Book Description
Explore the practical realities of corporate governance in public, private, and not-for-profit environments In the newly revised third edition of The Handbook of Board Governance: A Comprehensive Guide for Public, Private and Not for Profit Board Members, award-winning professor and lawyer Dr. Richard Leblanc delivers a comprehensive overview of all relevant topics in corporate governance. Each chapter is written by a subject matter expert working in academia or industry and illuminates a different area of board governance: value creation and the strategic role of the Board, risk governance and oversight, board composition and diversity, the role of the board chair, blind spots and trendspotting in the boardroom, audit committee efficacy, and more. This latest edition contains updated coverage of a wide variety of key topics, including: Governing, auditing, and working from home, as well as conducting virtual and hybrid meetings New and necessary skillsets for directors, including contemporary environmental, social, and governance considerations for firms Diversity, equity, and inclusion issues impacting boards and firms, as well as the risks posed by corruption, organized crime, and cyber-crime An essential resource for board members and directors of organizations of all kinds, The Handbook of Board Governance is also an important source of information for managers and executives seeking greater understanding of the role of the board in the day-to-day and long-term management of a modern firm.
Author: Vishal P. Baloria
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51
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Book Description
Motivated by recent high-profile instances of policy uncertainty in the U.S., this study examines whether policy uncertainty affects the forecasting performance of financial analysts. We conjecture that policy uncertainty increases the complexity of the forecasting task for analysts, resulting in less accurate earnings forecasts. We find robust evidence that forecast accuracy decreases in the presence of policy uncertainty. We also document that the negative association between forecast accuracy and policy uncertainty is more pronounced when policy uncertainty is particularly high and when firms are more sensitive to policy uncertainty. Given the importance of the intermediation role played by financial analysts, these findings have implications for understanding factors that affect information dissemination in capital markets.
Author: Véronique Bessière
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 18
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Book Description
This article examines the link between uncertainty and investors' reaction to goodwill write-offs (GWWOs) for a sample of French firms during the period 2001- 2004. Our theoretical setting is derived from Daniel, Hirshleifer and Subrahmanyam (1998, hereafter DHS98) who posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information, followed by too little adjustments when the information becomes public and then a long adjustment which reduce slowly the mispricing in the long run. We consider three proxies for uncertainty - stock return volatility, analyst coverage and dispersion in analyst forecasts - and sort two samples of GWWOs according to the level of uncertainty. Our results confirm DHS98 model and, indirectly, that overconfidence is boosted by uncertainty. We identify a particular corporate event - here a bad signal: goodwill write-offs - and a particular context - high uncertainty - that fit DHS98 model, allowing private information prospecting, overconfidence in this information and arbitrage obstacles. Our tests confirm the overconfidence effect on investors' reaction: the high-uncertainty sample is characterized by strongly negative abnormal returns during the period preceding GWWOs announcement, associated with high volatility. At the announcement date, negative abnormal returns are observed in line with the self-attribution bias effect (the overreaction is strengthened by a confirming signal). The overreaction to private information is corrected in the long run, where we observe positive abnormal returns, creating a reversal. No abnormal returns are observed for the low-uncertainty sample. This study offers interesting insights in two ways: (i) in the area of financial markets and efficiency, it provides a test of a major over- and under-reaction model, (ii) in the area of corporate finance and accounting, it helps to explain investors' reaction to corporate financial disclosure according to a theoretical approach of information process and inference.
Author: Jacques Lussier
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
ISBN: 1944960090
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030904894X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 668
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Book Description
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Author: Ms.Elif C Arbatli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484302362
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Author: Andrei Shleifer
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191606898
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 225
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Book Description
The efficient markets hypothesis has been the central proposition in finance for nearly thirty years. It states that securities prices in financial markets must equal fundamental values, either because all investors are rational or because arbitrage eliminates pricing anomalies. This book describes an alternative approach to the study of financial markets: behavioral finance. This approach starts with an observation that the assumptions of investor rationality and perfect arbitrage are overwhelmingly contradicted by both psychological and institutional evidence. In actual financial markets, less than fully rational investors trade against arbitrageurs whose resources are limited by risk aversion, short horizons, and agency problems. The book presents and empirically evaluates models of such inefficient markets. Behavioral finance models both explain the available financial data better than does the efficient markets hypothesis and generate new empirical predictions. These models can account for such anomalies as the superior performance of value stocks, the closed end fund puzzle, the high returns on stocks included in market indices, the persistence of stock price bubbles, and even the collapse of several well-known hedge funds in 1998. By summarizing and expanding the research in behavioral finance, the book builds a new theoretical and empirical foundation for the economic analysis of real-world markets.
Author: Jonathan Heathcote
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
ISBN: 1437934919
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 61
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Book Description
The authors conducted a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the U.S., integrating data from various surveys. The authors follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. They document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Charts and tables. This is a print-on-demand publication; it is not an original.
