Detecting the Fingerprints of Climate Change in Rain Distributions with Extreme Precipitation PDF Download
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Author: Patrick G. H. Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Patrick G. H. Lee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: John Abbot
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1789847346
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 122
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Book Description
This book describes aspects of rainfall including the extremes, distribution and properties. The introductory chapter focusses on drought and flooding rains over Australia, placing extreme rainfall events from recent decades into a historical context using reconstructions from proxy data. The next three chapters focus on distribution and impacts of rainfall. The first of these chapters presents a statistical analysis of rainfall patterns for Jeddah City and considers future impacts. The second examines rainfall in the context of impacts, vulnerability and climate change in eastern Africa. The third examines extreme rainfall and drought in the Asia-Pacific, through application of monitoring from space. The final chapters focus on properties of rain, one examining aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, while another considers the chemical nature of individual size-resolved raindrops.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309380979
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: Zhe Yang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
Extreme rainfall events have a long history of causing large economic damages in urban areas and even loss of human life. Reliable estimates of extreme rainfall intensities for different rainfall durations are essential for the effective planning of drainage systems under climate change to balance the construction costs and potential damages caused by future extreme rainfall events. The information required for design rainfall events can be obtained through frequency analysis of extreme rainfall. However, extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from the traditional approach of frequency analysis have become increasingly unreliable under climate change. With increasing global temperatures and the uneven distribution of atmosphere moisture, the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events can experience accelerated changes. Thus, urban drainage systems designed based on extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from historical records are becoming increasingly ineffective. Under the impacts of climate change, extreme rainfall events are becoming one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Frequency analysis of the extreme rainfall events used to estimate the probability of exceedance of extreme rainfall events of a given magnitude in the future context can generate unreliable estimates under climate change because of two issues. Firstly, there are often insufficient data records available for the quantification of extreme rainfall events of interest from a design perspective. Since extreme rainfall events are rare, there is large uncertainty in quantile estimates obtained from using only the information from the site of interest. Thus, regional frequency analysis, which expands the data records through gathering information from sites sharing similar rainfall patterns, is widely used and is applied in this research. Secondly, the traditional assumption that there is a repetitive pattern in the occurrences of extreme rainfall events has become invalid in a nonstationary environment. Since extreme rainfall patterns can be altered in the future, estimates for rainfall quantiles obtained from using frequency analysis in a historical stationary environment can be unreliable when applied for future conditions. Further research is required into applying the regional frequency analysis approach for the estimation of extreme rainfall quantiles under climate change. To provide reliable regional estimates of rainfall quantiles for different rainfall durations under climate change, this research improves regional frequency analysis through exploring the following issues: 1) An improved procedure for homogeneous group formation for historical stationary periods. Extreme rainfall events have been affected by climate change. A three-layer searching algorithm is proposed for homogeneous group formation in a stationary environment for the consideration of climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events. 2) An adjustment procedure for homogeneous group formation in the future stationary environment. Under the assumption that extreme rainfall patterns remain stationary within a 30-year period, a procedure is proposed to adjust the optimal homogeneous group formation from the previous temporal periods to reflect conditions in future 30-year periods. 3) A procedure used for rainfall quantile estimation in a future nonstationary environment. Under the assumption that the extreme rainfall series exhibit nonstationary behavior during the whole future period, a one-step forward procedure is constructed based on the unscented Kalman filter to consider the potential non-monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall events at different return periods. In this approach, the homogeneous groups are formed using a trend centered pooling approach. The proposed methodology fills the gaps of considering climate change impacts on homogeneous group formation in both historical and future stationary environments and challenges the assumption of monotonic change behavior of extreme rainfall quantiles used in the traditional regional frequency analysis for stations exhibiting nonstationary behavior. The proposed procedures have been extensively tested using large sets of climate data in both historical and future contexts and have been shown to improve the extreme rainfall quantile estimates in both historical and future contexts.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107025060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 593
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Book Description
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Author: Intergouvernemental panel on climate change. Working group 1
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 110705799X
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 1553
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Book Description
The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Atmospheric chemistry
Languages : en
Pages : 406
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Book Description
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521144078
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 193
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Book Description
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521634557
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 532
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Book Description
Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781009157971
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 755
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Book Description
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
