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Author: Zenon Kontolemis G.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 41⁄2 percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
Author: Zenon Kontolemis G.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36
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Book Description
The paper reviews the stability of long-run money demand in the euro area in the light of recent revisions to M3 data. The analysis confirms the existence of a stable long-run money demand, although the estimated equation implies a smaller equilibrium M3 growth than the European Central Bank's reference value of 41⁄2 percent. The stability of long-run money demand does not imply that the market is always in equilibrium. Indeed, it is argued that periods of disequilibrium can be long and adjustment slow. The paper shows that the difference between the low estimated equilibrium growth rate and the actual growth rate for M3 can be explained by a velocity shock, identified here as the sharp fall in equity prices in the last two years. These characteristics of the money market-summarized in the events of the last two years-would call for an alternative approach in the communication of monetary policy developments, essentially putting less emphasis on month-to-month developments in M3.
Author: Helmut Lütkepohl
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3662125390
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 266
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Book Description
In 1999 a number of member states of the European Union will adopt a common currency. This change in the monetary system requires that a Eur opean Central Bank is set up and a common monetary policy is pursued. There is general agreement among those countries which are likely to join the common currency that price level stability has to be the ultimate objec tive of monetary po1icy. It is an open issue, however, what kind of policy is best suited for that purpose. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of cen tral importance. Therefore a workshop on Money Demand in Europe was organized at the Humboldt University in Berlin on October 10/11, 1997. This research conference brought together academic and central bank econo mists and econometricians predominantly from Europe to discuss issues on specification, estimation and, in particular, stability of money demand rela tions both in a single equation and in a systems framework. In this volume revised versions of the papers presented and discussed at the workshop are collected. The volume thereby gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe on the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank.
Author: Christian Müller
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642574009
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 248
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Book Description
The first of January 1999 marked the beginning of a macroeconomic experi ment without precedent in modern history. For the first time eleven European countries agreed to abolish their local currencies in favour of a single one, the Euro. Not surprisingly, the necessary preparatory process has been accompa nied by an intensive discussion about the best way to manage the new Euro currency properly. To spur on that discourse was the principal motivation for this thesis. The introductory chapter attempts to bridge economic and econometric views on money demand analysis. It should help to motivate estimation proce dures and to standardize interpretation techniques, hopefully initiating further discussion in that direction. It intends to make the following chapters more accessible. In this thesis I approach the general subject in two principle ways. In chapter 3 I consider technical issues dealing with time series with shifts in the mean. Two years ago, Helmut Liitkepohl and Pentti Saikkonen asked me to join in on a related project which became the cornerstone of this chapter. I have very much appreciated the highly instructive collaboration with both these scholars.
Author: Alessandro Calza
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Cointegration
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Author: Luca Dedola
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Euro
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Ralph Setzer
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789279111846
Category : Data processing
Languages : en
Pages : 24
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Book Description
"Conventional money demand specifications in the euro area have become unstable since 2001. We specify a money demand equation in deviations of individual euro area Member States variables from the euro area average and show that the income elasticity as well as the interest rate semi-elasticity remains stable. The corresponding deep parameters of the utility function have not changed. Aggregate money demand instability does therefore not result from altered standard factors determining the preference for holding money. Instead, other factors determine the aggregate monetary overhang. Since monetary developments cannot easily be explained by changing preferences, they should be closely monitored and might be a sign of imbalances."--Document home p.
Author: Shigeyuki Hamori
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
We analyzed the stability of the money demand function using panel data from January 1999 through March 2006, covering the 11 EU countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain). First, we found that the money demand function was stable with respect to M3. This arguably supports the suitability of the ECB's focus on M3 money supply in its monetary policy. Second, the stability of the money demand function was recognized with respect not only to M3, but also to M1 and M2. Accordingly, the ECB's adoption of M1 or M2 growth as a reference value should probably be considered depending on how conditions change going forward.
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475524471
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48
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Book Description
More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Demand for money
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Author: Matteo Barigozzi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
We revisit the usefulness of long-run money demand equations for the European Central Bank. We first conduct a model evaluation exercise by means of a recent time-varying cointegration test. A stable relation for euro area M3 is not rejected by data only when accounting for both a speculative motive, represented by international financial markets, and a precautionary motive, proxied by changes in the unemployment rate. Second, relying on this finding, we propose and estimate a novel time-invariant specification for money demand which allows us (i ) to build a leading indicator of stock market busts and (ii ) to describe the anomalous behavior of M3 in the last decade. Excess liquidity matters for both financial and price stability. -- money demand ; time-varying cointegration ; price-earnings ratios ; unemployment rate ; monetary policy.
