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Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Default (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Default (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Financial institutions
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Nineteen-ninety-eight was a mixed performance year for the high yield bond market in the United States , with much below average returns and spreads over default-risk-free Treasury Bonds but continued relatively low default rates and losses and another record year of new insurance. Returns and new insurance were excellent through the first seven months of the year but returns reversed and new issues dried up, temporarily, in the wake of August's Russians default and the emerging market turmoil, causing another short-term flight to quality. Returns in 1998 on high yield bonds in the U.S. were slightly above 4.0% for the entire year, about 8.5% lower than historical averages. Return spreads also were much below average (-8.7%).The default rate was again relatively low, 1.60%, and losses from default 1.1%. Despite 1998's low relative return, net returns (after deducting losses from defaults) over the last two decades continue to show a compound result over 12% per year and spreads over U.S. Treasuries of over 2.5% per year. New insurance of high yield debt in 1998 totaled a record $152 billion, with $120 billion of the total in the first seven and a half months.This report documents the high yield debt market's risk and return performance by presenting default and morality statistics and providing a matrix of average returns and other performance statistics over relevant periods of the market's evolution. Our analysis covers the period 1971-1998 for defaults and 1978-1998 for returns. In addition, we present our annual forecast of expected defaults for the next three years (1999-2001). Two other reports, published by the NYU Salomon Center, comprehensively document the performance of defaulted public bonds and bank loans and the default rate experience on syndicated bank loans.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 30
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Book Description
Nineteen-ninety five was an excellent year for the high yield market with relatively low defaults combined with returns of almost 20%, the highest since 1991. When viewed in comparative terms with other fixed income securities markets, however, the high yield debt market s performance in 1995 was not exceptional. This report documents the high yield debt market s risk and return performance by presenting default and mortality statistics and providing a matrix of average returns and other performance statistics over the relevant periods of the market s evolution. Our analysis covers the period 1971-1995 for defaults and 1978-1995 for returns.
Author: Mark Shenkman
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 9780071376969
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 614
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Book Description
HIGH-YIELD BONDS provides state-of-the-art research, strategies, and toolsÑalongside the expert analysis of respected authorities including Edward Altman of New York UniversityÕs Salomon Center, Lea Carty of MoodyÕs Investor Service, Sam DeRosa-Farag of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, Martin Fridson of Merrill Lynch & Company, Stuart Gilson of Harvard University, Robert Kricheff of CS First Boston, and Frank Reilly of the University of Notre DameÑto help you truly understand todayÕs high-yield market. For added value and ease of reference, this high-level one-volume encyclopedia is divided into seven sections detailing virtually every aspect of high-yield bond investment. They include: Market structureÑThe role of investment banks in security innovation and market development, evolution of analytical methodologies, and recent leveraged loan market developments; Security risk analysisÑHistorical bond default rates, real interest rate and default rate relationships, and new simulation methodologies for modeling credit quality; Security valuationÑImpact of seniority and security on bond pricing and return, important trading factors, and a Monte Carlo simulation methodology for valuing bonds and options in the context of correlated interest rate and credit risk; Market valuation modelsÑEconometric studies which detail the importance of monetary influences, risk-free interest rates, default rates, mutual fund flows, and seasonal fluctuations; Portfolio managementÑHistorical perspective and comparison to alternative investments, analysis of indices available to investors, and specific portfolio selection and risk management strategies of professional fund managers; Distressed security investingÑHistorical risk and return information, plus an academic overview of the market and decision criteria for uncovering and investing in securities with higher-than-average risk-adjusted returns; Corporate finance considerationsÑEmerging firmsÕ strategic choice between external debt and equity financing, as well as the choice of issuing public versus private (Rule-144a) securities. HIGH-YIELD BONDS provides extensive coverage of bond valuation and the construction and management of high-yield portfolios. Advanced Monte Carlo simulation models for the valuation of bonds and options on bonds as well as risk assessments on portfolios of bonds under conditions of correlated interest rate and credit risk are demonstrated. In todayÕs explosive environment of multiple new issues and high risk versus return relationships, it is paramount that you get advice from analysts and experts who have been influential in shaping and defining the market. HIGH-YIELD BONDS will provide you with a valuable reference to this fascinating and constantly changing class of securities, helping you assemble a stable, diversified portfolio of fixed income investments that provides the greatest returns and the lowest risks.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
The year 2001 was remarkable on many fronts. For the high yield market, it was a year of crushing record numbers of defaults and distressed exchanges, combined with predictable low recovery rates. Despite these fundamental problems and the quot;flight to qualityquot; following the terrorist attacks in September, the high yield market displayed impressive resiliency.This report documents and comments upon the high yield bond market's risk and return performance by presenting traditional and mortality rate statistics and providing performance data over the market's history. Our analysis covers the period 1971-2001. In addition, we present our forecast of expected defaults.Two new innovations to our analysis of the high yield bond market are also introduced. We adjust our traditional measure of default loss rates by factoring in the impact of fallen angel defaults where the quot;investmentquot; in these issues is typically much below par value. Finally, we summarize some recently completed work, on analyzing default recovery rates, with an econometric model that has explained over 90% of the variation in recoveries over the last two decades.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
Dr. Altman has earned an international reputation as an expert on corporate bankruptcy, high yield bonds, distressed debt and credit risk analysis. In this article, Altman and his team provide a comprehensive review of the 2005 high yield bond market. The article provides detailed long-term analysis of the US market, as well as trends in default, bankruptcy, recovery and returns for investors. Against this historical backdrop, the article offers some guidance on expected default rates and market performance in the burgeoning high-yield distressed bond market.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Nineteen-ninety-four was a relatively lackluster year for the high yield market with relatively low defaults combined with slightly negative total returns. When viewed in comparative terms with other fixed income securities markets, however, high yield debt performed quite well. Compared to long term U.S. Government securities, the average yield spread on high yield debt dropped to the lowest year-end level (3.44%) since 1984. This report documents the high yield debt market s risk and return performance in 1994 by presenting default and mortality statistics and provides a matrix of average returns and other performance statistics over the relevant periods of the market s evolution. Our analysis covers the period 1971-1994 for defaults and 1978-1994 for returns.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
Full year 1999 was again a mixed performance year for the high yield bondmarket in the United States but for different reasons than the mixed 1998performance. Once again, total returns were lackluster, registering just +1.73%. But, unlike last year s companion negative return spread vs. U.S. ten-year Treasuries, the return spread in 1999 was a positive 10.1%, as yield spreads increased significantly and Treasuries tumbled. And again, new issuance of high yield bonds was impressive, topping $100 billion for the third consecutive year, but aggregate defaults increased dramatically to an all-time record level of over $23 billion (face value). The default rate registered a sizeable increase, topping 4% (4.15%) for the first time since 1991 and significantly above the 1.6% level of one year earlier.Combined with a relatively low recovery rate of below 30 cents on the dollar, thedefault loss rate was 3.2% in 1999, compared to a historical arithmetic annualaverage of 1.9%. Despite 1999 s low absolute return, net returns (after deducting losses from defaults, rating migrations and interest rate changes) for the 1978-1999 period continued to show an attractive compounded return spread over U.S. Treasury bonds of close to 3.0% per year (2.96%). This report documents the high yield bond market s risk and returnperformance by presenting traditional and mortality default rate statistics andproviding a matrix of performance statistics over the relevant periods of themarket s evolution. Our analysis covers the 1971-1999 period for defaults and the 1978-1999 period for returns. In addition, we present our annual forecast of expected defaults for the next three years (2000-2002). Our 1999 forecast was for substantially higher defaults than 1998, but we underestimated the record defaultlevels. Default levels and rates were swelled in 1999 due to a number of factors,including the huge new issuance in the 1997-1999 period, a trend toward earlier defaults, deteriorating credit quality of new issues, pockets of industry fragility, and the continued vestige of 1998 s flight to quality. For 2000, we expect default levels to decline to about $17.5 billion and the default rate to regress to around three percent of the amount outstanding.
Author: Edward I. Altman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31
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Book Description
The first quarter 2004 default rate for U.S. (and Canada) dollar-denominated high yield bonds was 0.41% based on $3.6 billion of defaults. This rate was just slightly higher than the fourth quarter 2003's very low rate of 0.36%. The latter was the lowest quarterly rate since the third quarter of 1998. The four-quarter rate as of March 31, 2004 continued its downward trend to 4.02% from 4.66% as of year-end 2003. There has only been one fallen angel default issue from a single company so far in 2004 compared to a total of 24 issues from 15 companies for all of 2003.New issues totaled a robust $43.8 billion, somewhat lower than the average quarterly figure for 2003 (which was almost a record high year). Returns on high yield bonds in the first quarter were 1.81% with a spread of -2.80% compared to ten-year Treasuries, which return 4.61%. The distressed ratio on high yield bonds increased slightly to 6.6%, up from 5.7% as of year-end 2004. In addition, the yield spread on high yield bonds increased by 43 bp over the past three months. While the increase in both the distress ratio and the high yield bond spread were minor, they indicate a market sentiment that is growing slightly more concerned about default risk.
