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Author: Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642246478
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 207
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Book Description
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?
Author: Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642246478
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 207
Get Book Here
Book Description
Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?
Author: Tatiana Guy
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642364075
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 187
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Book Description
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.
Author: Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783319151458
Category : Artificial intelligence
Languages : en
Pages : 184
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Book Description
This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selƠ̐lsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: ĺØ task allocation to maximize ĺlthe wisdom of the crowdĺl; ĺØ design of a society of ĺledutainmentĺl robots who account for one anothersĺl emotional states; ĺØ recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; ĺØ coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; ĺØ efƠ̐lciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized medicine; ĺØ the effects of personality on risky decision making. The volume is a valuable source for researchers, graduate students and practitioners in machine learning, stochastic control, robotics, and economics, among other Ơ̐lelds.
Author: Joong Bum Rhim
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 141
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Book Description
Bayesian hypothesis testing inevitably requires prior probabilities of hypotheses. Motivated by human decision makers, this thesis studies how binary decision making is performed when the decision-making agents use imperfect prior probabilities. Three detection models with multiple agents are investigated: distributed detection with symmetric fusion, sequential detection with social learning, and distributed detection with symmetric fusion and social learning. In the distributed detection with symmetric fusion, we consider the agents to be a team aiming to minimize the Bayes risk of the team's decision. In this model, incorrect beliefs reduce the chance of the agents from being right so always lead to an increase in the Bayes risk of the decision-making team. In contrast, the role of beliefs is more complicated in the sequential detection model with social learning, where agents observe public signals, which are decisions made by other agents. Since each agent affects the minimum possible Bayes risk for subsequent agents, she may have a mixed objective including her own Bayes risk and the Bayes risks of subsequent agents. For an earlier-acting agent, it is shown that being informative to later-acting agents is different from being right. When private signals are described by Gaussian likelihoods, informative earlier-acting agents should be open-minded toward the unlikely hypothesis. Social learning helps imperfect agents who have favorable incorrect beliefs outperform perfect agents who have correct beliefs. Compared to in the sequential detection model, social learning is less influential in the distributed detection model with symmetric fusion. This is because social learning induces the evolution of the fusion rule in the distributed detection model, which countervails the other effect of social learning-belief update. In particular, social learning is futile when the agents observe conditionally independent and identically distributed private signals or when the agents require unanimity to make a decision. Since social learning is ineffective, imperfect agents cannot outperform perfect agents, unlike in the sequential detection model. Experiments about human behavior were performed in team decision-making situations when people should optimally ignore public signals. The experiments suggest that when people vote with equal qualities of information, the ballots should be secret.
Author: John W. Payne
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521425261
Category : Education
Languages : en
Pages : 352
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Book Description
The Adaptive Decision Maker argues that people use a variety of strategies to make judgments and choices. The authors introduce a model that shows how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predicts which strategy a person will use in a given situation. A series of experiments testing the model are presented, and the authors analyse how the model can lead to improved decisions and opportunities for further research.
Author: Tatiana V Guy
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642364063
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 197
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Book Description
Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9788090383456
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: Morgan W. McCall
Publisher: Prentice Hall
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 170
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Book Description
"This provocative book takes the stance that managerial decision making is seldom amenable to such strategies. In modern organizations, decision making requires acting without all the facts, juggling many problems at once, shooting from the hip, and nursing political processes."--Back cover.
Author: E. Frank Harrison
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 582
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Book Description
Rather than present decision making strictly as a quantitative science, this text views it as a multidimensional process involving values, psychology, sociology, social psychology, and politics. Using a process modela focus on the process of a decision rather than the outcomethe book presents a variety of perspectives useful for making and evaluating decisions in all kinds of organizations.
Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Little, Brown
ISBN: 031645138X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 429
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Book Description
From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.
