Cyclical Sensitivity of Fiscal Policies Based on Real-time Data PDF Download
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Author: Lorenzo Forni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 52
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Book Description
Author: Lorenzo Forni
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 52
Get Book Here
Book Description
Author:
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Alexander Klemm
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475516444
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32
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Book Description
This paper provides an analysis of the cyclical stance of fiscal policy in Latin America. Its contributions include developing a new measure of the cyclicality of fiscal policy, careful analysis of the statistical significance of results, and accounting for the effect of commodity prices on fiscal balances. The new cyclicality measure takes into account both discretionary policy action and automatic stabilizers, but excludes additional revenues that are due to applying an unchanged average tax rate to nominal GDP in excess of potential. The paper finds that fiscal policy has been procyclical on average in Latin America, but counter or acyclical in advanced economies. Country-specific results are mostly insignificant, except in a few cases where policy is clearly procyclical. For some countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, and Mexico), there is evidence of a recent move toward more countercyclical policies.
Author: Roberto Golinelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Elections
Languages : en
Pages : 64
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Book Description
Author: Vitor Gaspar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475589522
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 548
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Book Description
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Author: Luc Eyraud
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475578032
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures in relation to country size. The paper also briefly reviews the literature on political economy factors and policy biases, and offers some reflections on the euro area architecture.
Author: Ľudovít Ódor
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108339484
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 615
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Book Description
This book discusses the often overlooked future of fiscal policy in light of what we have learned from the financial crisis. This book is for academics and graduate students studying the debate on fiscal policy, as well as practitioners working on day-to-day policy issues.
Author: Roberto Golinelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Euro area
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
Author: Mr.Serhan Cevik
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475516118
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
This paper investigates the determinants of fiscal policy behavior and its time-varying volatility, using panel data for a broad set of advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1990–2012. The empirical results show that discretionary fiscal policy is influenced by policy inertia, the level of public debt, and the output gap in both advanced and emerging market economies. In addition, the paper finds that macro-financial factors—such as real exchange rate, financial development, interest rates, asset prices, and natural resource rents—and demographic and institutional factors—such as the old-age dependency ratio, the quality of institutions, and policy anchors such as fiscal rules and IMF-supported stabilization programs—tend to have a significant effect on fiscal policy behavior. The results also indicate that higher government debt leads to more volatile fiscal behavior, while fiscal rules and higher institutional quality reduce the volatility of fiscal policy over time.
Author: Mr.Paolo Mauro
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616357827
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 53
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Book Description
We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades. Specifically, our dataset consists of fiscal revenues, primary expenditures, the interest bill (and thus both the primary and the overall fiscal deficit), the government debt, and gross domestic product, for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. For the first time, a large cross country historical data set covers both fiscal stocks and flows. Using Bohn’s (1998) approach and other tests for fiscal sustainability, we document how the degree of prudence or profligacy varies significantly over time within individual countries. We find that such variation is driven in part by unexpected changes in potential economic growth and sovereign borrowing costs.
