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Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : COVID-19 (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 12
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Book Description
This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on changes in the behavior of the virus, reflecting mutations and vaccinations, and changes in people's behavior, reflecting voluntary or government mandated isolation. Over our sample period, neither mutation nor vaccination are major factors, so one can attribute variation in the transmission rate to variations in behavior. Evidence based on panel data models explaining transmission rates for nine European countries indicates that the diversity of outcomes results from the non-linear interaction of mandatory containment measures, voluntary precautionary isolation, and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. These effects are precisely estimated and robust to various assumptions. As a result, countries with seemingly different social distancing policies achieved quite similar outcomes in terms of the reproduction number. These results imply that ignoring the voluntary component of social distancing could introduce an upward bias in the estimates of the effects of lock-downs and support policies on the transmission rates. The full set of estimation results and the replication package are available on the authors' websites.
Author: Alexander Chudik
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : COVID-19 (Disease)
Languages : en
Pages : 12
Get Book Here
Book Description
This paper estimates time-varying COVID-19 reproduction numbers worldwide solely based on the number of reported infected cases, allowing for under-reporting. Estimation is based on a moment condition that can be derived from an agent-based stochastic network model of COVID-19 transmission. The outcomes in terms of the reproduction number and the trajectory of per-capita cases through the end of 2020 are very diverse. The reproduction number depends on the transmission rate and the proportion of susceptible population, or the herd immunity effect. Changes in the transmission rate depend on changes in the behavior of the virus, reflecting mutations and vaccinations, and changes in people's behavior, reflecting voluntary or government mandated isolation. Over our sample period, neither mutation nor vaccination are major factors, so one can attribute variation in the transmission rate to variations in behavior. Evidence based on panel data models explaining transmission rates for nine European countries indicates that the diversity of outcomes results from the non-linear interaction of mandatory containment measures, voluntary precautionary isolation, and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. These effects are precisely estimated and robust to various assumptions. As a result, countries with seemingly different social distancing policies achieved quite similar outcomes in terms of the reproduction number. These results imply that ignoring the voluntary component of social distancing could introduce an upward bias in the estimates of the effects of lock-downs and support policies on the transmission rates. The full set of estimation results and the replication package are available on the authors' websites.
Author: Great Britain: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Publisher: The Stationery Office
ISBN: 9780102953220
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 144
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Book Description
The 2001 outbreak of Foot and Mouth was set out in a report published in 2002, providing an analysis of what happened with recommendations (HCP 888, session 2001-02, ISBN 9780102976243). Another FMD outbreak occurred in the Summer of 2007 and the Government again asked Dr Iain Anderson to conduct a review and find out if the lessons of 2001 had been learned and whether new recommendations are needed. This report is built around the findings of 2001, with a particular look at the Pirbright facility, the source of the virus incriminated in this recent outbreak. Dr Anderson's states that he found much to applaud in the handling of the 2007 outbreak along with some deficiencies, but states the positive outweighs the negative. The report commends the strong leadership of the Prime Minister, as well as the contingency planning and better integration of scientific advice and the capabilities at the centre of disease control strategies. External communication was also greatly improved. Less encouraging were the inadequate infrastructure and governance of the Pirbright facility where the Institute for Animal Health is located and the poor regulatory regime in place to licence work with dangerous animal pathogens. Defra's information systems too were found wanting. The report also recommends that the Institute of Animal Health should become the new National Institute of Infectious Diseases, supported by multiple sources of funding from government and elsewhere. Also recommended is the creation of an Independent Advisory Committee on Animal and Emerging Infectious Diseases, combining a high level group of experts along with other stakeholders with a mission to provide independent advice to government and link closely with the Government's and departmental Chief Scientific Advisors and include the Chief Veterinary Office and Chief Medical Officer amongst its members. The publication is divided into five sections: Section 1: Foreword; Section 2: Summary and recommendations; Section 3: Lessons learned, the lessons are - Lesson 1: Maintain vigilance; Lesson 2: Be prepared; Lesson 3: React with speed and certainty; Lesson 4: Explain policies, plans and practices; Lesson 5: Respect local knowledge; Lesson 6: Apply risk assessment and cost benefit analysis; Lesson 7: Use data and information management systems; Lesson 8: Have a legislative framework; Lesson 9: Base policy decisions on the best available science; Section 4: Pirbright; Section 5: Appendices.
Author: Gerardo Chowell
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9048123135
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 367
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Book Description
Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology compiles t- oretical and practical contributions of experts in the analysis of infectious disease epidemics in a single volume. Recent collections have focused in the analyses and simulation of deterministic and stochastic models whose aim is to identify and rank epidemiological and social mechanisms responsible for disease transmission. The contributions in this volume focus on the connections between models and disease data with emphasis on the application of mathematical and statistical approaches that quantify model and data uncertainty. The book is aimed at public health experts, applied mathematicians and sci- tists in the life and social sciences, particularly graduate or advanced undergraduate students, who are interested not only in building and connecting models to data but also in applying and developing methods that quantify uncertainty in the context of infectious diseases. Chowell and Brauer open this volume with an overview of the classical disease transmission models of Kermack-McKendrick including extensions that account for increased levels of epidemiological heterogeneity. Their theoretical tour is followed by the introduction of a simple methodology for the estimation of, the basic reproduction number,R . The use of this methodology 0 is illustrated, using regional data for 1918–1919 and 1968 in uenza pandemics.
Author: Odo Diekmann
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400845629
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 517
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Book Description
Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic models and methods. Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics fully explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology. This comprehensive and accessible book also features numerous detailed exercises throughout; full elaborations to all exercises are provided. Covers the latest research in mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemiology Integrates deterministic and stochastic approaches Teaches skills in model construction, analysis, inference, and interpretation Features numerous exercises and their detailed elaborations Motivated by real-world applications throughout
Author: Pragyan Deb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781513550251
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44
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Book Description
Containment measures are crucial to halt the spread of the 2019 COVID-19 pandemic but entail large short-term economic costs. This paper tries to quantify these effects using daily global data on real-time containment measures and indicators of economic activity such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) emissions, flights, energy consumption, maritime trade, and mobility indices. Results suggest that containment measures have had, on average, a very large impact on economic activity--equivalent to a loss of about 15 percent in industrial production over a 30-day period following their implementation. Using novel data on fiscal and monetary policy measures used in response to the crisis, we find that these policy measures were effective in mitigating some of these economic costs. We also find that while workplace closures and stay-at-home orders are more effective in curbing infections, they are associated with the largest economic costs. Finally, while easing of containment measures has led to a pickup in economic activity, the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from the tightening of measures.
Author: Fred Brauer
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540789103
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 415
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Book Description
Based on lecture notes of two summer schools with a mixed audience from mathematical sciences, epidemiology and public health, this volume offers a comprehensive introduction to basic ideas and techniques in modeling infectious diseases, for the comparison of strategies to plan for an anticipated epidemic or pandemic, and to deal with a disease outbreak in real time. It covers detailed case studies for diseases including pandemic influenza, West Nile virus, and childhood diseases. Models for other diseases including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, fox rabies, and sexually transmitted infections are included as applications. Its chapters are coherent and complementary independent units. In order to accustom students to look at the current literature and to experience different perspectives, no attempt has been made to achieve united writing style or unified notation. Notes on some mathematical background (calculus, matrix algebra, differential equations, and probability) have been prepared and may be downloaded at the web site of the Centre for Disease Modeling (www.cdm.yorku.ca).
Author: Matt J. Keeling
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400841038
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 385
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Book Description
For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control
Author: Raul Rabadan
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009086650
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 167
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Book Description
Since the identification of the first cases of the coronavirus in December 2019, there has been a significant amount of confusion regarding the origin and spread of the so-called 'coronavirus', SARS-CoV-2, and the cause of the disease COVID-19. Conflicting messages from the media and officials across different countries and organizations, the abundance of disparate sources of information, unfounded conspiracy theories on the origins of the virus, unproven therapies, and inconsistent public health measures, have all served to increase anxiety in the population. Where did the virus come from? How is it transmitted? How does it cause disease? Is it like flu? What is a pandemic? In this concise and accessible introduction, a leading expert provides answers to these commonly asked questions. This revised and updated edition now also covers how the virus mutates, how important these mutations are, how vaccines work, and what we can expect in the near and long-term future.
Author: Winfried Just
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811233616
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 408
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Book Description
How can we keep up with the deluge of information about COVID-19 and tell which parts are most important and trustworthy?We read: 'Scientists recommend', 'Experts warn', 'A new model predicts'. How do scientific experts come up with their recommendations? What do their predictions really mean for us, for our friends, and our families?How can we make rational decisions? And how can we have sensible conversations about the pandemic when we disagree?These are the questions that this book is trying to address.It is written in the form of dialogues. Alice, a student of epidemiology, explains the science to three of her fellow students who have a lot of questions for her. The students have the same concerns that we all share to varying degrees: What the pandemic is doing to our health, our economy, and our cherished freedoms. In their conversations, they discover how the science relates to these questions.The book focuses on epidemiology, the science of how infections spread and how the spread can be mitigated. The science of how many infections can be prevented by certain kinds of actions. This is what we need to understand if we want to act wisely, as individuals and as a society.The author's goal is to help the reader think about the COVID-19 pandemic like an epidemiologist. About the various preventive measures, what they are trying to accomplish, what the obstacles are. About what is likely to be most effective in the long run at moderate economic and personal cost. About the likely consequences of personal decisions. About how to best protect oneself and others while allowing all of us to lead lives that are as close as possible to normal.While some chapters present slightly more advanced material than others, no scientific background is needed to follow the conversations. The technical concepts are explained in small steps and the occasional calculations in the book require only high-school mathematics.Related Link(s)
Author: Simon A. Levin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642613179
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 498
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Book Description
The Second Autumn Course on Mathematical Ecology was held at the Intern ational Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy in November and December of 1986. During the four year period that had elapsed since the First Autumn Course on Mathematical Ecology, sufficient progress had been made in applied mathemat ical ecology to merit tilting the balance maintained between theoretical aspects and applications in the 1982 Course toward applications. The course format, while similar to that of the first Autumn Course on Mathematical Ecology, consequently focused upon applications of mathematical ecology. Current areas of application are almost as diverse as the spectrum covered by ecology. The topiys of this book reflect this diversity and were chosen because of perceived interest and utility to developing countries. Topical lectures began with foundational material mostly derived from Math ematical Ecology: An Introduction (a compilation of the lectures of the 1982 course published by Springer-Verlag in this series, Volume 17) and, when possible, progressed to the frontiers of research. In addition to the course lectures, workshops were arranged for small groups to supplement and enhance the learning experience. Other perspectives were provided through presentations by course participants and speakers at the associated Research Conference. Many of the research papers are in a companion volume, Mathematical Ecology: Proceedings Trieste 1986, published by World Scientific Press in 1988. This book is structured primarily by application area. Part II provides an introduction to mathematical and statistical applications in resource management.
