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Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363108
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.
Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363108
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.
Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484367944
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
This paper assesses the quality of the CBC’s communication policy by looking at the predictability and effectiveness of monetary policy communications by the Central Bank of Chile (CBC). To do so, we construct indeces of monetary policy surprises for the three major communication channels of the CBC: the release of policy meetings’ statements, minutes, and monetary policy reports (IPoM). We assess monetary policy predictability and efficacy by looking at the size and time-evolution of monetary policy surprises associated with meeting statements and the impact of the above communication channels on asset markets. We find that, in general, the CBC’s has been effective in its forward guidance through its statements and IPoM. Policy actions are quite predictable, especially post the global financia crisis. The response of equity prices and the exchange rate to monetary policy surprises have the right sign but are not robust. We also find an asymmetric response of equity prices to minutes suggesting that market participants extract information on the status of the economy especially when minutes have a loosening effect. Finally, to look at the macroeconomic impact we find that a 100 bps monetary policy tightening shock implies a decline in economic activity (IMACEC) of about 2 pp. after one year, while the response of inflation is more muted.
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 9781898128601
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
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Book Description
Not long ago, secrecy was the byword in central banking circles, but now the unmistakable trend is towards greater openness and transparency. This, the third Geneva Report on the World Economy, describes and evaluates some of the changes in how central banks talk to the markets, to the press, and to the public. The report first assesses the case for transparency ? defined as providing sufficient information for the public to understand the policy regime ? and concludes that it is very strong, based on both policy effectiveness and democratic accountability. It then examines what should be the content of communication and argues that central banks ought to spell out their long-run objectives and methods. It then investigates the link between the decision-making process and central bank communication, drawing a distinction between individualistic and collegial committees. The report concludes with a review of the communications strategies of some of the main central banks.
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402
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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author: Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513545647
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
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Book Description
Since the adoption of the inflation targeting framework by Bank Indonesia (BI), monetary policy communication has played an increasingly important role in BI’s policy toolkit. This paper assesses BI’s monetary policy communication from three perspectives: i) its transparency and clarity, ii) its ability to align market expectation and BI’s policy decisions (predictability), and iii) its impact on financial markets. In particular, we assess the impact of BI’s monetary policy practices by focusing on its monetary policy press releases and monetary policy reports. The results show that Bank Indonesia has made significant progress in the transparency of its communication as well as in the institutional framework to support this. Nonetheless, the results also suggest ways in which the impact of communication can be further improved, including by strengthening the clarity of policy messages, its consistency with the policy framework and the depth of the money market.
Author: Mr. Alfred Schipke
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 290
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Book Description
India has experienced a prolonged period of strong economic growth since it embarked on major structural reforms and economic liberalization in 1991, with real GDP growth averaging about 6.6 percent during 1991–2019. Millions have been lifted out of poverty. With a population of 1.4 billion and about 7 percent of the world economic output (in purchasing power parity terms), India is the third largest economy—after the US and China. As such, developments in India have significant global and regional implications, including via spillovers through international trade and global supply chains. At the same time, India’s economic development has not been linear and has been impacted by external and domestic shocks, some directly related to the financial sector. Indeed, India was not spared from external regional and global shocks, such as the Asian financial crisis (1997), the global financial crisis (2008), and more recently, the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2020) and the war in Ukraine (2022). The economy has also been hit by domestic shocks. The book covers how to strengthen the financial system to support growth and reduce vulnerabilities by discussing the linkages between the financial sector and growth, improvements in bank lending to foster productivity, and measures to further develop India’s corporate bond market. The book reflects on India’s success in leveraging digitalization to foster financial inclusion and highlights how the financial system can help to address climate issues. This book digs deeper into the various facets of India’s financial sector to understand its strengths and opportunities and to elicit policy actions that could help the financial sector better support India’s growth potential.
Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 926440645X
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 174
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Book Description
Colombia has made good economic and social progress over the last two decades. Macroeconomic policies are solid and have sustained growth and smooth adjustments to shocks over the years. Maintaining and strengthening the policy framework is key to sustainable macroeconomic policies and setting the basis for higher productivity and inclusiveness. Putting Colombia on a path to stronger and more inclusive growth, and reducing dependence on natural resources, requires boosting productivity by adopting structural reforms in competition, regulations, trade policy, infrastructure, innovation, and skills.
Author: Ms.Olga Ilinichna Stankova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498311032
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 72
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Book Description
The paper provides an overall view of communications across various areas of economic policy, aiming to help country authorities as they increasingly use communications as a policy tool in its own right. The paper identifies frontier communications challenges, drawing on a large body of research on the salient issues. Although communications can never be a substitute for good policies, economic reforms are more likely to fail or even be reversed if they are not understood or accepted by those whom they affect.
Author: Frederic S. Mishkin
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262134829
Category : Monetary policy
Languages : en
Pages : 561
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Book Description
This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategydescribes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anch fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.
Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513529730
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
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Book Description
Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
