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Author: John Merrifield
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 1498518109
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
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Book Description
This book explores new fiscal rules introduced in OECD countries and the relevance of fiscal rules for the unique fiscal policies and institutions in the United States. The rules in different countries are compared, with a more in depth analysis of two countries with arguably the most successful fiscal rules—Switzerland and Sweden. The study compares the challenge of fiscal consolidation facing the U.S. with that in other OECD countries. The centerpiece of the study is analysis of fiscal rules using a dynamic simulation model. A Swiss style fiscal rule is compared to an alternative fiscal rule proposed by Representative Amash, H.J.Res 24.The authors propose a new fiscal rule designed for the unique fiscal institutions in the U.S. Dynamic scoring is used to measure the impact of different fiscal rules on the federal budget, economic growth, and revenue. The effectiveness of the different fiscal rules is analyzed with respect to several criteria. A major objective of the rules is fiscal stabilization in the long run to bring debt/GDP ratios below tolerance levels. The fiscal rules are also designed for budget stabilization in the medium term, such that deficits in periods of recession are offset by surplus revenue in periods of economic expansion. The concluding section of the study explores the political economy of enacting new fiscal rules in the U.S. The study proposes fundamental changes in budget process required for the proposed fiscal rule to be effective. The study concludes with a discussion of alternative routes to enacting new fiscal rules, and the prospects for new fiscal rules to be enacted in the U.S.
Author: John Merrifield
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 1498518109
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 209
Get Book Here
Book Description
This book explores new fiscal rules introduced in OECD countries and the relevance of fiscal rules for the unique fiscal policies and institutions in the United States. The rules in different countries are compared, with a more in depth analysis of two countries with arguably the most successful fiscal rules—Switzerland and Sweden. The study compares the challenge of fiscal consolidation facing the U.S. with that in other OECD countries. The centerpiece of the study is analysis of fiscal rules using a dynamic simulation model. A Swiss style fiscal rule is compared to an alternative fiscal rule proposed by Representative Amash, H.J.Res 24.The authors propose a new fiscal rule designed for the unique fiscal institutions in the U.S. Dynamic scoring is used to measure the impact of different fiscal rules on the federal budget, economic growth, and revenue. The effectiveness of the different fiscal rules is analyzed with respect to several criteria. A major objective of the rules is fiscal stabilization in the long run to bring debt/GDP ratios below tolerance levels. The fiscal rules are also designed for budget stabilization in the medium term, such that deficits in periods of recession are offset by surplus revenue in periods of economic expansion. The concluding section of the study explores the political economy of enacting new fiscal rules in the U.S. The study proposes fundamental changes in budget process required for the proposed fiscal rule to be effective. The study concludes with a discussion of alternative routes to enacting new fiscal rules, and the prospects for new fiscal rules to be enacted in the U.S.
Author: Cullen Roche
Publisher: Macmillan
ISBN: 1137279311
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 252
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Book Description
An insightful and original look at why understanding macroeconomics is essential for all investors
Author: Michael Pettis
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780195143300
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 272
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Book Description
This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture. Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403
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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 149832892X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
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Book Description
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Author: Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498338380
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
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Book Description
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Author: Peter J. Tanous
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118072049
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224
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Book Description
What investors can do to protect their investments in the next phase of the ongoing global economic collapse The United States is heading toward an unavoidable financial catastrophe that will paralyze the markets and the overall economy in ways never before seen. Some call this impending economic catastrophe a double-dip recession, others a financial Armageddon. Regardless of what it's called, it is too late to stop it. Debts, Deficits, and the Demise of the American Economy is a look at how we got here, how the crisis is unfolding, and how it will end with a stock market crash in 2012, if not sooner. Takes you through the unraveling of the collapse, starting with a wave of sovereign debt defaults in Europe Predicts a stock market decline of two to three thousand points, a run on banks resulting in a major bank crisis, and rampant inflation Provides investment strategies, including alternative investments such as timber, farm land, and oil Offers a detailed proposal to get the United States out of the crisis Debts, Deficits, and the Demise of the American Economy is a must-read, play-by-play account of the worldwide depression that is likely to unfold in the coming years.
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691152640
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 513
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Book Description
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Author: Mr.Barry J. Eichengreen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484392892
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 60
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Book Description
We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, depressions and financial crises also have a long history. Many of these episodes resulted in debt-management problems resolved through debasements and restructurings. Less widely appreciated are successful debt consolidation episodes, instances in which governments inheriting heavy debts ran primary surpluses for long periods in order to reduce those burdens to sustainable levels. We analyze the economic and political circumstances that made these successful debt consolidation episodes possible.
Author: Mr.Daniel Leigh
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455294691
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
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Book Description
This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
