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Author: Mr.David A Reichsfeld
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463923899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Author: Mr.David A Reichsfeld
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463923899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 27
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Book Description
We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures market is hard to beat. We find that the forecasting performance of futures does not depend on the slope of the futures curve, in contrast to the predictions of well-known models of commodity markets. We also find futures' forecasting performance to be invariant to whether prices are in an upswing or downswing, casting doubt on aspersions that uninformed investors participating during bull markets impede the price discovery process.
Author: Manuel Fuchs
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783639368642
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 68
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Book Description
Commodity futures prices are widely used as a tool for forecasting and predicting future commodity spot prices. Indeed, commodity futures prices do have certain forecasting power. However, their explanation power is strongly limited. In particular, this thesis tests whether WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices can forecast future spot prices accurately. Based on economic theory and two conflicting research views, we apply an OLS regression in order to show the empirical poorness of WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices as forecasting agents of future spot prices. In addition, we reject the null hypothesis of an unbiased and efficient market for the majority of the analyzed WTI and Brent futures contracts. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence indicating that WTI and Brent futures prices cannot forecast future spot prices accurately.
Author: Boum-Jong Choe
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Precios
Languages : en
Pages : 28
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Book Description
Author: Takatoshi Ito
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226386899
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 346
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Book Description
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Author: Harry Jiler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 214
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Book Description
Provides background to help forecasting price movements in twenty different commodity future markets and studies the price forecasting with the aid of charts.
Author: Menzie D. Chinn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Commodity futures
Languages : en
Pages : 37
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Book Description
This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for a broad range of commodities, including energy, precious and base metals, and agricultural commodities. In particular, we examine whether futures prices are (1) an unbiased and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. While energy futures prices are generally unbiased predictors of future spot prices, there is much stronger evidence against the null for other commodity markets. This difference appears to be driven in part by the depth of each market. We find that over the last five years, it is much harder to reject the null of futures prices being unbiased predictors of future spot prices than in earlier periods for almost all commodities. In addition, futures prices do approximately as well as a random walk in forecasting future spot prices, and vastly outperform a reduced form empirical model -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Author: Dominik Neukom
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
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Book Description
This master thesis examines the predictive forecast power as well as the forecast properties of crude oil futures over five different time horizons for the time period of January 1990 until December 2015. The thesis' emphasis is to improve the general understanding of futures' abilities and limitations and to further clarify whether the widespread use of futures prices as the market's expectation of future price developments is justified.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451946961
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 40
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Book Description
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Author: William G. Tomek
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Craig Pirrong
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139501976
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238
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Book Description
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
