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Author: Kenza Benhima
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Information theory in economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear when firms are initially over-optimistic about demand due to a noisy private news. Consequently, they overproduce, which generates a boom and depresses their markups. Because the news is private, firms cannot relate these low markups to aggregate optimism. As low markups can also signal low demand, this overturns their expectations, generating a bust. We emphasize a novel role for imperfect common knowledge: dispersed information makes firms ignorant about their competitors' actions, which makes them confuse high noise-driven supply with low fundamental demand.
Author: Kenza Benhima
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Information theory in economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
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Book Description
Dispersed information can generate booms and busts in economic activity. Boom-bust dynamics appear when firms are initially over-optimistic about demand due to a noisy private news. Consequently, they overproduce, which generates a boom and depresses their markups. Because the news is private, firms cannot relate these low markups to aggregate optimism. As low markups can also signal low demand, this overturns their expectations, generating a bust. We emphasize a novel role for imperfect common knowledge: dispersed information makes firms ignorant about their competitors' actions, which makes them confuse high noise-driven supply with low fundamental demand.
Author: Thomas Sowell
Publisher: Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN: 0465018807
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 194
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Book Description
Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author: William Quinn
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108369359
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 297
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Book Description
Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.
Author: Robert McNally
Publisher: Columbia University Press
ISBN: 0231543689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 336
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Book Description
As OPEC has loosened its grip over the past ten years, the oil market has been rocked by wild price swings, the likes of which haven't been seen for eight decades. Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations. Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how—even from the oil industry's first years—wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions—first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC—succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations—including mistakes to avoid—as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.
Author: Roberto Dieci
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783943153163
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 56
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Book Description
Author: Lukas Scheffknecht
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
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Book Description
Author: Peter Turchin
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400889316
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 260
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Book Description
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Author: George Wilton
Publisher: Az Boek
ISBN: 6256315596
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 65
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Book Description
Author: Vikram Mansharamani
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118028570
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 287
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Book Description
A multi-disciplinary framework through which to spot financial bubbles before they burst. Based on a popular undergraduate seminar, entitled Financial Booms & Busts, taught by the author at Yale University, Boombustology presents a multi-disciplinary framework for identifying unsustainable booms and forthcoming busts. The magnitude of our recent financial crisis mandates a firm understanding of this phenomenon before the next crisis occurs. Boombustology provides an in-depth look at several major booms and busts and offers a solid framework for thinking about future occurrences. Examines why booms and busts are not random and can therefore be identified Focuses upon various theoretical and disciplinary lenses useful in the study of booms and busts Contains a framework for thinking about and identifying forthcoming financial bubbles including several tell-tale indicators of a forthcoming bust. Illustrates the framework in action by evaluating China as a potential bubble in the making. If you want to make better decisions in today’s turbulent investment environment, understanding the dynamics of booms and busts is the best place the start. Boombustology can help you achieve this elusive goal. Vikram Mansharamani is a Lecturer at Yale University and a global equity investor.
Author: Jay Wright Forrester
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 312
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Book Description
